IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v54y2014i4p529-537.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Chinese Lunar New Year effect in Asian stock markets, 1999–2012

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan, Tian
  • Gupta, Rakesh

Abstract

This study investigates the Chinese Lunar New Year (CLNY) holiday effect in major Asian stock markets. These are China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan. For robustness test, India is also examined in this paper. Daily stock index returns for each market are analysed for the period of 01/09/1999 to 28/03/2012. Using an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH (1,1) model, we find that there is a significantly positive pre-CLNY holiday effect for all cases. The findings are robust for most cases with the exception of China. It is found that high pre-CLNY returns for China are rewards for high risk, whereas for the other markets, high returns are caused by unknown factors, other than the conditional risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Tian & Gupta, Rakesh, 2014. "Chinese Lunar New Year effect in Asian stock markets, 1999–2012," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 529-537.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:54:y:2014:i:4:p:529-537
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2014.06.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976914000428
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2014.06.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-231, May.
    2. Meneu, Vicente & Pardo, Angel, 2004. "Pre-holiday effect, large trades and small investor behaviour," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 231-246, March.
    3. Zhichao Zhang & Wai Sun & Hua Wang, 2008. "A new perspective on financial anomalies in emerging markets : the case of China," Post-Print hal-02313413, HAL.
    4. Agrawal, Anup & Tandon, Kishore, 1994. "Anomalies or illusions? Evidence from stock markets in eighteen countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-106, February.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Zamri Ahmad & Simon Hussain, 2001. "KLSE Long Run Overreaction and the Chinese New‐Year Effect," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1‐2), pages 63-105, January.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Glenn N. Pettengill, 1989. "Holiday Closings And Security Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 12(1), pages 57-67, March.
    9. George Marrett & Andrew Worthington, 2009. "An empirical note on the holiday effect in the Australian stock market, 1996-2006," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1769-1772.
    10. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. "High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-1626, December.
    11. Cadsby, Charles Bram & Ratner, Mitchell, 1992. "Turn-of-month and pre-holiday effects on stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 497-509, June.
    12. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
    13. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    14. Paul McGuinness, 2005. "A re-examination of the holiday effect in stock returns: the case of Hong Kong," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1107-1123.
    15. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2005. "Day-of-the-week effects in the pre-holiday returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 107-119.
    16. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    17. Barone, E., 1990. "The italian stock market : Efficiency and calendar anomalies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 483-510, August.
    18. Zamri Ahmad & Simon Hussain, 2001. "KLSE Long Run Overreaction and the Chinese New-Year Effect," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1-2), pages 63-105.
    19. Hsieh, David A., 1988. "The statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates: 1974-1983," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 129-145, February.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:701-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Kim, Chan-Wung & Park, Jinwoo, 1994. "Holiday Effects and Stock Returns: Further Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 145-157, March.
    22. Chien, Chin-Chen & Lee, Cheng-few & Wang, Andrew M. L., 2002. "A note on stock market seasonality: The impact of stock price volatility on the application of dummy variable regression model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-162.
    23. Zhichao Zhang & Wai Sun & Hua Wang, 2008. "A new perspective on financial anomalies in emerging markets: the case of China," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(21), pages 1681-1695.
    24. Roger Vergin & John McGinnis, 1999. "Revisiting the Holiday Effect: is it on holiday?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 477-482.
    25. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    26. Chong, Ryan & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin & Littler, Kevin, 2005. "Pre-holiday effects: International evidence on the decline and reversal of a stock market anomaly," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1226-1236, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Siqi Hou, 2021. "Will stock rise on Valentine’s Day?," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(5), pages 646-667, May.
    2. Der-Yuan Yang & Chen-Hsun Lee, 2016. "The solar and lunar divide and the impact on Taiwan’s stock returns," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1177153-117, December.
    3. Al-Khazali, Osamah & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Zoubi, Taisier, 2017. "The impact of religious practice on stock returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 172-189.
    4. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Puah, Chin-Hong, 2020. "Chinese stock market sectoral indices performance in the time of novel coronavirus pandemic," MPRA Paper 100414, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2020.
    5. Yang, Ann Shawing, 2016. "Calendar trading of Taiwan stock market: A study of holidays on trading detachment and interruptions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 140-154.
    6. Cheng, We Geng & Leite, Rodrigo de Oliveira & Caldieraro, Fabio, 2022. "Financial contagion in internet lending platforms: Who pays the price?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    7. Shaista Wasiuzzaman, 2017. "Religious anomalies in Islamic stock markets: The Hajj Effect in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(3), pages 157-162, May.
    8. Kliger, Doron & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "The High Holidays: Psychological mechanisms of honesty in real-life financial decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 121-137.
    9. Wasiuzzaman, Shaista, 2018. "Seasonality in the Saudi stock market: The Hajj effect," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 273-281.
    10. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Eichel, Ron, 2022. "Seasonal and Calendar Effects and the Price Efficiency of Cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    11. Casalin, Fabrizio, 2018. "Determinants of holiday effects in mainland Chinese and Hong-Kong markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 45-67.
    12. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis with calendar effects:Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    13. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2017. "The Behavior of Stock Prices during Lent and Advent," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 95-112.
    14. Liu, De-Chih & Liu, Chih-Yun, 2016. "The source of stock return fluctuation in Taiwan," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-88.
    15. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2017. "The Behavior of Stock Prices during Lent and Advent," Proceedings RCE 2017, Editura Lumen, vol. 0, pages 95-112, November.
    16. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Rao, Purnima & Verma, Shubhangi, 2023. "Emotions and stock market anomalies: A systematic review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    17. Fan, Ying, 2023. "Collaborative integration, workplace flexibility and scholarly productivity: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Stefanescu Razvan & Dumitriu Ramona, 2021. "The Extended Holiday Effects on Bucharest Stock Exchange during Coronavirus Pandemic," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 293-303.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete F. S. Vieira, 2013. "Another look at the holiday effect," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(20), pages 1623-1633, October.
    2. repec:rfb:journl:v:09:y:2017:i:2:p:007-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "Holiday Effect on Large Stock Price Changes," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 633-660, November.
    4. Tian Yuan & Rakesh Gupta & Robert J. Bianchi, 2015. "The Pre-Holiday Effect in China: Abnormal Returns or Compensation for Risk?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-28.
    5. Casalin, Fabrizio, 2018. "Determinants of holiday effects in mainland Chinese and Hong-Kong markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 45-67.
    6. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    7. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2020. "The Extended Holiday Effect on US capital market," MPRA Paper 100463, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2020.
    8. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2018. "Holiday effect on stock price reactions to analyst recommendation revisions," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(7), pages 507-521, December.
    9. Paul McGuinness & Richard Harris, 2011. "Comparison of the 'turn-of-the-month' and lunar new year return effects in three Chinese markets: Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 917-929.
    10. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    11. Lahav, Eyal & Shavit, Tal & Benzion, Uri, 2016. "Can't wait to celebrate: Holiday euphoria, impulsive behavior and time preference," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 128-134.
    12. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2012. "Holiday effects during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 41625, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 2012.
    13. Razvan STEFANESCU & Ramona DUMITRIU, 2018. "Changes in the stocks prices behavior before and after the public holidays: case of Bucharest Stock Exchange," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 189-202.
    14. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    15. Andrew Worthington, 2010. "The decline of calendar seasonality in the Australian stock exchange, 1958–2005," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 421-433, July.
    16. Brian Lucey, 2005. "Are local or international influences responsible for the pre-holiday behaviour of Irish equities?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 381-389.
    17. Stefanescu Razvan & Dumitriu Ramona, 2021. "The Extended Holiday Effects on Bucharest Stock Exchange during Coronavirus Pandemic," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 293-303.
    18. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    19. Prakash Pinto & Shakila Bolar & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Aleyamma George & Abdelrhman Meero, 2022. "Holiday Effect and Stock Returns: Evidence from Stock Exchanges of Gulf Cooperation Council," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-10, November.
    20. Paul McGuinness, 2005. "A re-examination of the holiday effect in stock returns: the case of Hong Kong," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1107-1123.
    21. Pham Dan Khanh & Pham Thanh Dat & Bui Huy Nhuong, 2020. "A Re-examination of the Holiday Effect in Stock Returns: The Case of Vietnam," Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology, Learning Gate, vol. 4(1), pages 51-54.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian stock markets; Holiday effect; ARMA(1; 1)-GARCH (1; 1); Efficiency market hypothesis (EMH);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:54:y:2014:i:4:p:529-537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.