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'Turn-of the-month' return effects for small cap Hong Kong stocks

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  • Paul McGuinness

Abstract

Intra-month returns for a liquid pool of small-cap stocks in Hong Kong are analysed over the period January 2000 to June 2005. A strong and persistent 'turn-of-the-month' effect is apparent where returns, measured between the close of trading on the penultimate day of business in a calendar month and the subsequent close five business days later, are recorded at levels averaging almost 1.5%. This compares to returns over the preceding five-day period-capturing the 'end of month' effect-of almost -0.3% on average. Further analysis also points to differential 'day-of-the-week' effects with Tuesday and Friday returns in particular at noticeably lower levels during the final week of a month as compared to earlier weeks. The Tuesday effect may well be an analogue of the US Monday effect given Wang et al.'s evidence of notably lower Monday returns toward month-ends, and the suggestion of a 'delayed Monday effect' in Asian time zones due to the opening of US Monday trading hours after Hong Kong trading hours.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul McGuinness, 2006. "'Turn-of the-month' return effects for small cap Hong Kong stocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(14), pages 891-898.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:14:p:891-898
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500426046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Ko & Li, Yuming & Erickson, John, 1997. "A New Look at the Monday Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2171-2186, December.
    2. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    3. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 433-454, June.
    4. Ogden, Joseph P, 1990. "Turn-of-Month Evaluations of Liquid Profits and Stock Returns: A Common Explanation for the Monthly and January Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1259-1272, September.
    5. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. "High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-1626, December.
    6. Paul McGuinness, 2005. "A re-examination of the holiday effect in stock returns: the case of Hong Kong," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1107-1123.
    7. Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jalonen, Einari & Vähämaa, Sami & Äijö, Janne, 2010. "Turn-of-the-month and intramonth effects in government bond markets: Is there a role for macroeconomic news?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 75-81, January.
    2. Tianbao Zhou & Xinghao Li & Peng Wang, 2021. "Statistics and Practice on the Trend’s Reversal and Turning Points of Chinese Stock Indices Based on Gann’s Time Theory and Solar Terms Effect," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-24, July.
    3. Paul McGuinness & Richard Harris, 2011. "Comparison of the 'turn-of-the-month' and lunar new year return effects in three Chinese markets: Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 917-929.
    4. Muhammad Sarmad Irtiza & Shahbaz Khan & Nida Baig & Syed Muhammad Ali Tirmizi & Ilyas Ahmad, 2021. "The turn-of-the-month effect in Pakistani stock market," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.

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