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Comparing forecasting ability of parametric and non-parametric methods: an application with Canadian monthly interest rates

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  • Burak Saltoglu

Abstract

The primary objective of this article is to compare the forecasting ability of some recent parametric and non-parametric estimation methods by using monthly Canadian interest rate data between 1964:1-1999:1. The two-factor continuous time term structure model of Brennan and Schwartz was estimated where the first factor represents the short rate and the second factor the long rate using the continuous time estimation procedures developed by Bergstrom. The interest rates using the multivariate GARCH model developed by Engle and Kroner, and two non-parametric estimation methods namely, non-parametric kernel smoothing and the artificial neural networks was modelled. For the short-term rates, it has been found that, the Bergstrom's method and the artificial neural networks model have marginally better forecasting performance than that of the linear benchmark. For the long-term rates, none of the methods produced better forecasting precision than that of the benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Burak Saltoglu, 2003. "Comparing forecasting ability of parametric and non-parametric methods: an application with Canadian monthly interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 169-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:3:p:169-176
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100110111259
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    Cited by:

    1. K. Ben Nowman & Burak Saltoglu, 2003. "An empirical comparison of interest rates using an interest rate model and nonparametric methods," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 643-645.
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    3. Sutthisit Jamdee & Cornelis A. Los, 2005. "Multifractal Modeling of the US Treasury Term Structure and Fed Funds Rate," Finance 0502021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tseng, Chih-Hsiung & Cheng, Sheng-Tzong & Wang, Yi-Hsien & Peng, Jin-Tang, 2008. "Artificial neural network model of the hybrid EGARCH volatility of the Taiwan stock index option prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3192-3200.

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