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The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices: consequences for firms' financial performance

Author

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  • Fabrizio Ferriani

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Gazzani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We analyse the impact of the shock to energy prices induced by the war in Ukraine on the financial performance of the major European firms listed in the Eurostoxx 600 index. We find that equity returns (CDS spreads) decreased (increased) more substantially for firms characterized by high energy intensity and carbon emission intensity. We then present a method, based on a VAR model, to produce forecasts of firms’ CDS spreads conditional on a 3-month stress period of high electricity prices and we document a non-negligible increase in the number of firms with a CDS-implied non-investment rating.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2022. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices: consequences for firms' financial performance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 729, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_729_22
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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Szajner & Barbara Wieliczko, 2024. "Energy Efficiency in Polish Farms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Sinha, Avik & Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict sentiments and energy market returns in G7 countries: Discovering the unexplored dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Koetter, Michael & Nguyen, Huyen, 2023. "European banking in transformational times: Regulation, crises, and challenges," IWH Studies 7/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Oriol Sabaté & Sara Torregrosa-Hetland, 2024. "War inflation and taxation," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2024/463, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Krzysztof Janasz & Norbert Obrycki & Joanna Wisniewska, 2022. "Modelling the Energy Sector in Ukraine with RES Development Scenarios," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 283-307.
    6. Di-Comite, Francesco & Pasimeni, Paolo, 2022. "Decoupling from Russia," Single Market Economics Papers WP2022/4, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    7. Beata Milewska & Dariusz Milewski, 2023. "The Impact of Energy Consumption Costs on the Profitability of Production Companies in Poland in the Context of the Energy Crisis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Duparc-Portier, Geoffroy & Figus, Gioele, 2024. "How should governments respond to energy price crises? A horse-race between fiscal policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Andrea Lippi & Riccardo Torelli & Andrea Caccialanza, 2024. "Relationship between governance diversity and company growth: Evidence from the FT 1000 Europe's fastest growing companies," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 650-658, January.
    10. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "The invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis: Comparative advantages in equity valuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    11. Marjan Petreski, 2023. "The impact of the crisis induced by the conflict in Ukraine on firms in North Macedonia: Evidence from a micro-survey," Finance Think Policy Studies 2023-06/46, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    12. Elisa Moretti & Ettore Stamponi, 2023. "The Renewable Energy Communities in Italy and the Role of Public Administrations: The Experience of the Municipality of Assisi between Challenges and Opportunities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-23, August.
    13. Petreski Marjan, 2024. "The Impact of the Crisis Induced by the Conflict in Ukraine on Firms: Evidence from North Macedonia," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 123-144.
    14. Maneejuk, Paravee & Kaewtathip, Nuttaphong & Yamaka, Woraphon, 2024. "The influence of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on renewable and fossil energy price cycles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    war in Ukraine; energy impacts; financial performance; CDS spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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