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A Novel Compromise Approach for Risk-Based Selective Water Withdrawal from Reservoirs Considering Qualitative-Quantitative Aspects

Author

Listed:
  • Sadegh Vanda

    (Shiraz University)

  • Mohammad Reza Nikoo

    (Sultan Qaboos University)

  • Narges Taravatrooy

    (Shiraz University)

  • Ghazi Ali Al-Rawas

    (Sultan Qaboos University)

  • Seyed M. K. Sadr

    (Chamberlains Aqua Systems Limited)

  • Fayyaz A. Memon

    (University of Exeter)

  • Banafsheh Nematollahi

    (Shiraz University)

Abstract

A novel risk-based multi-objective compromise methodology was proposed for selective withdrawal from a dam reservoir. Developed for devising a five-year optimal reservoir policy in dry, wet, and normal periods, it allowed for selective water withdrawal from multiple outlets at different depths to account for the reservoir's water quality and thermal stratification. A calibrated version of the CE-QUAL-W2 numerical model was utilized for simulating temperature and other water quality parameters at different reservoir outlets under possible scenarios of reservoir inflow and outflow. To address the computational burden problem, two multilayer perceptron meta-models were trained and validated using the CE-QUAL-W2 simulation results for temperature and the IRan Water Quality Index (IRWQI) at each reservoir outlet. Then, the validated meta-models were coupled with the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) optimization technique, allowing one to incorporate different stakeholders’ utility functions. Three objective functions were considered: (i) minimization of the storage deficit risk, (ii) minimization of the low water quality risk (due to reservoir thermal stratification), and (iii) minimization of the deficit between total releases and demands. Finally, the GMCR-plus model resolved stakeholder conflicts and achieved a compromise solution. Alleviating the shortcomings of previous models in achieving coupled water quality-quantity allocation by drawing on the capabilities of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and graph models, along with NSGA-II, constituted the present study’s principal contribution. The research findings revealed that applying the proposed methodology could provide adequate water quality corresponding to different demands during thermal stratification to prepare effective guidelines for optimal reservoir operation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sadegh Vanda & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Narges Taravatrooy & Ghazi Ali Al-Rawas & Seyed M. K. Sadr & Fayyaz A. Memon & Banafsheh Nematollahi, 2023. "A Novel Compromise Approach for Risk-Based Selective Water Withdrawal from Reservoirs Considering Qualitative-Quantitative Aspects," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(12), pages 4861-4879, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03584-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03584-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Motahareh Saadatpour & Abbas Afshar & John Eric Edinger, 2017. "Meta-Model Assisted 2D Hydrodynamic and Thermal Simulation Model (CE-QUAL-W2) in Deriving Optimal Reservoir Operational Strategy in Selective Withdrawal Scheme," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2729-2744, July.
    2. Mohammad Nikoo & Nafise Khorramshokouh & Shahryar Monghasemi, 2015. "Optimal Design of Detention Rockfill Dams Using a Simulation-Based Optimization Approach with Mixed Sediment in the Flow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5469-5488, December.
    3. Giovanni Sechi & Riccardo Zucca, 2015. "Water Resource Allocation in Critical Scarcity Conditions: A Bankruptcy Game Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 541-555, January.
    4. Mohammad S. Khorshidi & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Mojtaba Sadegh & Banafsheh Nematollahi, 2019. "A Multi-Objective Risk-Based Game Theoretic Approach to Reservoir Operation Policy in Potential Future Drought Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1999-2014, April.
    5. Shahryar Monghasemi & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Mohammad Ali Khaksar Fasaee & Jan Adamowski, 2017. "A Hybrid of Genetic Algorithm and Evidential Reasoning for Optimal Design of Project Scheduling: A Systematic Negotiation Framework for Multiple Decision-Makers," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(02), pages 389-420, March.
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