IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v36y2022i13d10.1007_s11269-022-03287-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty Quantification of Rainfall-runoff Simulations Using the Copula-based Bayesian Processor: Impacts of Seasonality, Copula Selection and Correlation Coefficient

Author

Listed:
  • Zhangjun Liu

    (Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering
    Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment of Poyang Lake
    Jiangxi Provincial Eco-Hydraulic Technology Innovation Center of Poyang Lake Basin)

  • Jingwen Zhang

    (Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering)

  • Tianfu Wen

    (Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering)

  • Jingqing Cheng

    (Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering)

Abstract

The outputs of Rainfall-runoff models are inherently uncertain and quantifying the associated uncertainty is crucial for water resources management activities. This study presents the uncertainty quantification of rainfall-runoff simulations using the copula-based Bayesian processor (CBP) in Danjiangkou Reservoir basin, China. The seasonality of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling is explored, and impacts of copula selection and correlation coefficient on uncertainty quantification results are investigated. Results show that the overall performance of the CBP is satisfactory, which provides a useful tool for estimating the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. It is also demonstrated that the dry season has higher reliability and greater resolution compared with wet season, which illustrates that the CBP captures the actual uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations more accurately in dry season. Moreover, the performance the CBP highly depends on the selected Copula function and considered Kendall tau correlation coefficient. As a result, great attention should be paid to selecting the appropriate Copula function and effectively capturing the actual dependence between observed and simulated flows in the CBP-based uncertainty quantification of rainfall-runoff simulations practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhangjun Liu & Jingwen Zhang & Tianfu Wen & Jingqing Cheng, 2022. "Uncertainty Quantification of Rainfall-runoff Simulations Using the Copula-based Bayesian Processor: Impacts of Seasonality, Copula Selection and Correlation Coefficient," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 4981-4993, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03287-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03287-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-022-03287-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-022-03287-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuaile Feng & Jianzhong Zhou & Yi Liu & Chengwei Lu & Zhongzheng He, 2019. "Hydrological Uncertainty Processor (HUP) with Estimation of the Marginal Distribution by a Gaussian Mixture Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(9), pages 2975-2990, July.
    2. Haniye Safarpour & Massoud Tabesh & Seyyed Ahmadreza Shahangian & Mohsen Hajibabaei & Robert Sitzenfrei, 2022. "Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of Wastewater Systems under Applying Water Demand Management Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Zhangjun Liu & Shenglian Guo & Honggang Zhang & Dedi Liu & Guang Yang, 2016. "Comparative Study of Three Updating Procedures for Real-Time Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(7), pages 2111-2126, May.
    4. Guang Yang & Shenglian Guo & Liping Li & Xingjun Hong & Le Wang, 2016. "Multi-Objective Operating Rules for Danjiangkou Reservoir Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1183-1202, February.
    5. Shuang Yao & Nengcheng Chen & Wenying Du & Chao Wang & Cuizhen Chen, 2021. "A Cellular Automata Based Rainfall-Runoff Model for Urban Inundation Analysis Under Different Land Uses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1991-2006, April.
    6. Lihua Xiong & Tao Du & Chong-Yu Xu & Shenglian Guo & Cong Jiang & Christopher Gippel, 2015. "Non-Stationary Annual Maximum Flood Frequency Analysis Using the Norming Constants Method to Consider Non-Stationarity in the Annual Daily Flow Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3615-3633, August.
    7. Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini & Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali & Fereydoun Radmanesh & Jahangir Abedi Koupai & Shahrokh Soltaninia, 2021. "Comparison of the Calculated Drought Return Periods Using Tri-variate and Bivariate Copula Functions Under Climate Change Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4855-4875, November.
    8. Na Li & Shenglian Guo & Feng Xiong & Jun Wang & Yuzuo Xie, 2022. "Comparative Study of Flood Coincidence Risk Estimation Methods in the Mainstream and its Tributaries," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 683-698, January.
    9. Jianzhong Zhou & Kuaile Feng & Yi Liu & Chao Zhou & Feifei He & Guangbiao Liu & Zhongzheng He, 2020. "A Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor Using Linear Derivation in the Normal Quantile Transform Space," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(11), pages 3649-3665, September.
    10. Anas Mahmood Al-Juboori, 2022. "Solving Complex Rainfall-Runoff Processes in Semi-Arid Regions Using Hybrid Heuristic Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 717-728, January.
    11. Haniye Safarpour & Massoud Tabesh & Seyyed Ahmadreza Shahangian, 2022. "Environmental Assessment of a Wastewater System under Water demand management policies," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 2061-2077, April.
    12. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jianzhong Zhou & Kuaile Feng & Yi Liu & Chao Zhou & Feifei He & Guangbiao Liu & Zhongzheng He, 2020. "A Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor Using Linear Derivation in the Normal Quantile Transform Space," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(11), pages 3649-3665, September.
    2. Yixuan Wang & Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Rong Hu, 2015. "A Time-Dependent Drought Index for Non-Stationary Precipitation Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5631-5647, December.
    3. Isabel Kaufmann Almeida & Aleska Kaufmann Almeida & Jorge Luiz Steffen & Teodorico Alves Sobrinho, 2016. "Model for Estimating the Time of Concentration in Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(12), pages 4083-4096, September.
    4. Jiazheng Lu & Jun Guo & Li Yang & Xunjian Xu, 2017. "Research of reservoir watershed fine zoning and flood forecasting method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1291-1306, December.
    5. Yuni Xu & Xiang Fu & Xuefeng Chu, 2019. "Analyzing the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydro-Environmental Conflict-Resolution Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1591-1607, March.
    6. Farhana Islam & Monzur Alam Imteaz, 2022. "A Novel Hybrid Approach for Predicting Western Australia’s Seasonal Rainfall Variability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3649-3672, August.
    7. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.
    8. Zahra Sadat Hosseini & Mahnoosh Moghaddasi & Shahla Paimozd, 2023. "Simultaneous Monitoring of Different Drought Types Using Linear and Nonlinear Combination Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1125-1151, February.
    9. Karim Solaimani & Fatemeh Shokrian & Shadman Darvishi, 2023. "An Assessment of the Integrated Multi-Criteria and New Models Efficiency in Watershed Flood Mapping," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(1), pages 403-425, January.
    10. Wei Zhang & Xiaohui Lei & Pan Liu & Xu Wang & Hao Wang & Peibing Song, 2019. "Identifying the Relationship between Assignments of Scenario Weights and their Positions in the Derivation of Reservoir Operating Rules under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 261-279, January.
    11. Jinping Zhang & Hang Zhang & Hongyuan Fang, 2022. "Study on Urban Rainstorms Design Based on Multivariate Secondary Return Period," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2293-2307, May.
    12. Sabina Kordana-Obuch & Mariusz Starzec & Michał Wojtoń & Daniel Słyś, 2023. "Greywater as a Future Sustainable Energy and Water Source: Bibliometric Mapping of Current Knowledge and Strategies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-34, January.
    13. Muhammad Shafeeq ul Rehman Khan & Zamir Hussain & Ishfaq Ahmad, 2021. "Effects of L-Moments, Maximum Likelihood and Maximum Product of Spacing Estimation Methods in Using Pearson Type-3 Distribution for Modeling Extreme Values," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1415-1431, March.
    14. Ming Hu & Guo H. Huang & Wei Sun & Xiaowen Ding & Yongping Li & Bin Fan, 2016. "Optimization and Evaluation of Environmental Operations for Three Gorges Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3553-3576, August.
    15. Jiawei Zhou & Xiaohong Chen & Chuang Xu & Pan Wu, 2022. "Assessing Socioeconomic Drought Based on a Standardized Supply and Demand Water Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 1937-1953, April.
    16. Yuan Gong & Xin Geng & Ping Wang & Shi Hu & Xunming Wang, 2024. "Impact of Urbanization-Driven Land Use Changes on Runoff in the Upstream Mountainous Basin of Baiyangdian, China: A Multi-Scenario Simulation Study," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, August.
    17. Yi-han Tang & Jie-feng Wu & Pei-yi Li & Li-juan Zhang & Xiao-hong Chen & Kai-rong Lin, 2019. "Quantifying Flood Frequency Modification Caused by Multi-Reservoir Regulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4451-4470, October.
    18. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.
    19. Shaokun He & Shenglian Guo & Guang Yang & Kebing Chen & Dedi Liu & Yanlai Zhou, 2020. "Optimizing Operation Rules of Cascade Reservoirs for Adapting Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(1), pages 101-120, January.
    20. Bartosz Szeląg & Roman Suligowski & Grzegorz Majewski & Przemysław Kowal & Adrian Bralewski & Karolina Bralewska & Ewa Anioł & Wioletta Rogula-Kozłowska & Francesco Paola, 2022. "Application of Multinomial Logistic Regression to Model the Impact of Rainfall Genesis on the Performance of Storm Overflows: Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3699-3714, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03287-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.