IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v33y2019i1d10.1007_s11269-018-2101-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying the Relationship between Assignments of Scenario Weights and their Positions in the Derivation of Reservoir Operating Rules under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Zhang

    (Wuhan University)

  • Xiaohui Lei

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Pan Liu

    (Wuhan University)

  • Xu Wang

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Hao Wang

    (Wuhan University
    China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Peibing Song

    (Zhejiang University)

Abstract

In order to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, adaptive operating rules (AOR) are generally derived using an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Up to date, most of related literatures only focus on one fold of the following issues concerning the derivation of AOR using the GCMs ensemble, including: (1) consideration of different scenario weighing methods, or (2) analysis of different positions to locate scenario weights. And less concern is given to the latter compared with the former. However, few studies identify the relationship between (1) and (2) in the derivation of AOR based on the GCMs ensemble. In this study, we attempt to investigate where to use Equal and REA scenario weights in the derivation of reservoir operating rules under climate change. Equal weights (EW) and unequal weights based on the reliability ensemble average (REA) method are used in two positions: (I) the optimization objective of the reservoir operation model, which is to maximize the weighted average hydropower generation for all future scenarios; and (II) the incorporation of GCMs ensemble climate projections into the weighted climate conditions, and then it is input into the reservoir operation model with the objective of maximizing annual hydropower generation. Four AORs, including EW-AOR(I), REA-AOR(I), EW-AOR(II) and REA-AOR(II), are derived, and their optimized parameters are obtained by the simulation-based optimization (SBO) method with the Complex algorithm. The case study in the Jinxi Reservoir in China indicates that REA-AOR(I) outperforms the other three operation schemes, and EW-AOR(II) performs better than REA-AOR(II). Therefore, equal weights are preferably used to incorporate climate conditions, while unequal weights based on REA method can improve the performance of the reservoir operation model. Generally, REA-AOR(I) and EW-AOR(II) are suggested for adaptive reservoir management under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Zhang & Xiaohui Lei & Pan Liu & Xu Wang & Hao Wang & Peibing Song, 2019. "Identifying the Relationship between Assignments of Scenario Weights and their Positions in the Derivation of Reservoir Operating Rules under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 261-279, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2101-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2101-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-018-2101-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-018-2101-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pan Liu & Shenglian Guo & Xiaowei Xu & Jionghong Chen, 2011. "Derivation of Aggregation-Based Joint Operating Rule Curves for Cascade Hydropower Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3177-3200, October.
    2. Farzane Karami & Alireza B. Dariane, 2018. "Many-Objective Multi-Scenario Algorithm for Optimal Reservoir Operation Under Future Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 3887-3902, September.
    3. Ruqayah Mohammed & Miklas Scholz, 2017. "Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3557-3573, September.
    4. M. Ward & Casey Brown & Kye Baroang & Yasir Kaheil, 2013. "Reservoir performance and dynamic management under plausible assumptions of future climate over seasons to decades," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 307-320, May.
    5. Guang Yang & Shenglian Guo & Liping Li & Xingjun Hong & Le Wang, 2016. "Multi-Objective Operating Rules for Danjiangkou Reservoir Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1183-1202, February.
    6. Hyung-Il Eum & Slobodan Simonovic, 2010. "Integrated Reservoir Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change: The Nakdong River Basin in Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3397-3417, October.
    7. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Feng, Maoyuan & Wang, Xianxun, 2017. "Optimizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower reservoir by incorporating long- and short-term operational decisions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 432-445.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhong-kai Feng & Wen-jing Niu & Peng-fei Shi & Tao Yang, 2022. "Adaptive Neural-Based Fuzzy Inference System and Cooperation Search Algorithm for Simulating and Predicting Discharge Time Series Under Hydropower Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(8), pages 2795-2812, June.
    2. Soumyashree Dixit & V. Neethin & K. V. Jayakumar, 2023. "Assessment of Crop-Drought Relationship: A Climate Change Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 4075-4095, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Li, Xiao, 2021. "Deriving pack rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems considering diminishing marginal benefit of energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Tan, Qiaofeng & Wen, Xin & Sun, Yuanliang & Lei, Xiaohui & Wang, Zhenni & Qin, Guanghua, 2021. "Evaluation of the risk and benefit of the complementary operation of the large wind-photovoltaic-hydropower system considering forecast uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    3. Shaokun He & Shenglian Guo & Guang Yang & Kebing Chen & Dedi Liu & Yanlai Zhou, 2020. "Optimizing Operation Rules of Cascade Reservoirs for Adapting Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(1), pages 101-120, January.
    4. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Zhang, Jingwen, 2019. "Hydropower reservoir reoperation to adapt to large-scale photovoltaic power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 268-279.
    5. Ziyu Ding & Guohua Fang & Xin Wen & Qiaofeng Tan & Xiaohui Lei & Zhehua Liu & Xianfeng Huang, 2020. "Cascaded Hydropower Operation Chart Optimization Balancing Overall Ecological Benefits and Ecological Conservation in Hydrological Extremes Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1231-1246, February.
    6. Li, He & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Lei & Yang, Zhikai, 2019. "Long-term complementary operation of a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power plant using explicit stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 863-875.
    7. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Shang, Jia’nan & Jurasz, Jakub & Liu, Pan, 2023. "A holistic techno-economic evaluation framework for sizing renewable power plant in a hydro-based hybrid generation system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    8. Cheng, Long & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Qiuyu & Jiang, Jianhua & Zhang, Hao & Jurasz, Jakub & Liu, Pan & Li, Meicheng, 2024. "Revealing electricity conversion mechanism of a cascade energy storage system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    9. Saiyan Liu & Yangyang Xie & Hongyuan Fang & Qiang Huang & Shengzhi Huang & Jingcai Wang & Zhen Li, 2020. "Impacts of Inflow Variations on the Long Term Operation of a Multi-Hydropower-Reservoir System and a Strategy for Determining the Adaptable Operation Rule," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1649-1671, March.
    10. Feng, Zhong-kai & Niu, Wen-jing & Wang, Wen-chuan & Zhou, Jian-zhong & Cheng, Chun-tian, 2019. "A mixed integer linear programming model for unit commitment of thermal plants with peak shaving operation aspect in regional power grid lack of flexible hydropower energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 618-629.
    11. Ge, Zewen & Geng, Yong & Wei, Wendong & Jiang, Mingkun & Chen, Bin & Li, Jiashuo, 2023. "Embodied carbon emissions induced by the construction of hydropower infrastructure in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Yuni Xu & Xiang Fu & Xuefeng Chu, 2019. "Analyzing the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydro-Environmental Conflict-Resolution Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1591-1607, March.
    13. Wang, Jin & Zhao, Zhipeng & Zhou, Jinglin & Cheng, Chuntian & Su, Huaying, 2024. "Developing operating rules for a hydro–wind–solar hybrid system considering peak-shaving demands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    14. Chang-ming Ji & Ting Zhou & Hai-tao Huang, 2014. "Operating Rules Derivation of Jinsha Reservoirs System with Parameter Calibrated Support Vector Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2435-2451, July.
    15. Gul, Eid & Baldinelli, Giorgio & Bartocci, Pietro & Shamim, Tariq & Domenighini, Piergiovanni & Cotana, Franco & Wang, Jinwen & Fantozzi, Francesco & Bianchi, Francesco, 2023. "Transition toward net zero emissions - Integration and optimization of renewable energy sources: Solar, hydro, and biomass with the local grid station in central Italy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 672-686.
    16. Yang, Weijia & Yang, Jiandong, 2019. "Advantage of variable-speed pumped storage plants for mitigating wind power variations: Integrated modelling and performance assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 720-732.
    17. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Qian & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Weifeng & Zheng, Yalian & Han, Dongyang & Xia, Jun, 2023. "An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    18. Jin, Xiaoyu & Liu, Benxi & Liao, Shengli & Cheng, Chuntian & Zhang, Yi & Zhao, Zhipeng & Lu, Jia, 2022. "Wasserstein metric-based two-stage distributionally robust optimization model for optimal daily peak shaving dispatch of cascade hydroplants under renewable energy uncertainties," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    19. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Yang, Zhikai & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Zheyuan & Huang, Kangdi & Xu, Weifeng & Gong, Lanqiang, 2024. "Synchronizing short-, mid-, and long-term operations of hydro-wind-photovoltaic complementary systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    20. Yang, Yuqi & Zhou, Jianzhong & Liu, Guangbiao & Mo, Li & Wang, Yongqiang & Jia, Benjun & He, Feifei, 2020. "Multi-plan formulation of hydropower generation considering uncertainty of wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2101-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.