IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v35y2021i4d10.1007_s11269-021-02786-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Hybrid VMD-SVM Model for Practical Streamflow Prediction Using an Innovative Input Selection Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Erhao Meng

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Shengzhi Huang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Qiang Huang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Wei Fang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Hao Wang

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Guoyong Leng

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Lu Wang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Hao Liang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

Abstract

Some previous studies have proved that prediction models using traditional overall decomposition sampling (ODS) strategy are unreasonable because the subseries obtained by the ODS strategy contain future information to be predicted. It is, therefore, necessary to put forward a new sampling strategy to fix this defect and also to improve the accuracy and reliability of decomposition-based models. In this paper, a stepwise decomposition sampling (SDS) strategy according to the practical prediction process is introduced. Moreover, an innovative input selection framework is proposed to build a strong decomposition-based monthly streamflow prediction model, in which sunspots and atmospheric circulation anomaly factors are employed as candidate input variables to enhance the prediction accuracy of monthly streamflow in addition to regular inputs such as precipitation and evaporation. Meanwhile, the partial correlation algorithm is employed to select optimal input variables from candidate input variables including precipitation, evaporation, sunspots, and atmospheric circulation anomaly factors. Four basins of the U.S. MOPEX project with various climate characteristics were selected as a case study. Results indicate that: (1) adding teleconnection factors into candidate input variables helps enhance the prediction accuracy of the support vector machine (SVM) model in predicting streamflow; (2) the innovative input selection framework helps to improve the prediction capacity of models whose candidate input variables interact with each other compared with traditional selection strategy; (3) the SDS strategy can effectively prevent future information from being included into input variables, which is an appropriate substitute of the ODS strategy in developing prediction models; (4) as for monthly streamflow, the hybrid variable model decomposition-support vector machine (VMD-SVM) models, using an innovative input selection framework and the SDS strategy, perform better than those which have not adopted this framework in all study areas. Generally, the findings of this study showed that the hybrid VMD-SVM model combining the SDS strategy and innovative input selection framework is a useful and powerful tool for practical hydrological prediction work in the context of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhao Meng & Shengzhi Huang & Qiang Huang & Wei Fang & Hao Wang & Guoyong Leng & Lu Wang & Hao Liang, 2021. "A Hybrid VMD-SVM Model for Practical Streamflow Prediction Using an Innovative Input Selection Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(4), pages 1321-1337, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02786-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02786-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-021-02786-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-021-02786-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chongli Di & Xiaohua Yang & Xiaochao Wang, 2014. "A Four-Stage Hybrid Model for Hydrological Time Series Forecasting," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Y. R. Fan & G. H. Huang & Y. P. Li & X. Q. Wang & Z. Li, 2016. "Probabilistic Prediction for Monthly Streamflow through Coupling Stepwise Cluster Analysis and Quantile Regression Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5313-5331, November.
    3. Yuan, Xiaohui & Tan, Qingxiong & Lei, Xiaohui & Yuan, Yanbin & Wu, Xiaotao, 2017. "Wind power prediction using hybrid autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average and least square support vector machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 122-137.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erhao Meng & Shengzhi Huang & Qiang Huang & Linyin Cheng & Wei Fang, 2021. "The Reconstruction and Extension of Terrestrial Water Storage Based on a Combined Prediction Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(15), pages 5291-5306, December.
    2. Anas Mahmood Al-Juboori, 2022. "Solving Complex Rainfall-Runoff Processes in Semi-Arid Regions Using Hybrid Heuristic Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 717-728, January.
    3. Yongtao Wang & Jian Liu & Rong Li & Xinyu Suo & EnHui Lu, 2022. "Medium and Long-term Precipitation Prediction Using Wavelet Decomposition-prediction-reconstruction Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 971-987, February.
    4. Icen Yoosefdoost & Abbas Khashei-Siuki & Hossein Tabari & Omolbani Mohammadrezapour, 2022. "Runoff Simulation Under Future Climate Change Conditions: Performance Comparison of Data-Mining Algorithms and Conceptual Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1191-1215, March.
    5. Fang-Fang Li & Han Cao & Chun-Feng Hao & Jun Qiu, 2021. "Daily Streamflow Forecasting Based on Flow Pattern Recognition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4601-4620, October.
    6. Wen-chuan Wang & Yu-jin Du & Kwok-wing Chau & Dong-mei Xu & Chang-jun Liu & Qiang Ma, 2021. "An Ensemble Hybrid Forecasting Model for Annual Runoff Based on Sample Entropy, Secondary Decomposition, and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4695-4726, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xue-hua Zhao & Xu Chen, 2015. "Auto Regressive and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2913-2926, June.
    2. Shengli Liao & Xudong Tian & Benxi Liu & Tian Liu & Huaying Su & Binbin Zhou, 2022. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on LightGBM and Meteorological Reanalysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Kim, Deockho & Hur, Jin, 2018. "Short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind energy resources using the enhanced ensemble method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 211-226.
    4. Manisha Sawant & Rupali Patil & Tanmay Shikhare & Shreyas Nagle & Sakshi Chavan & Shivang Negi & Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde, 2022. "A Selective Review on Recent Advancements in Long, Short and Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-24, October.
    5. Wang, Jujie & Li, Yaning, 2018. "Multi-step ahead wind speed prediction based on optimal feature extraction, long short term memory neural network and error correction strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 429-443.
    6. Xinxin He & Jungang Luo & Ganggang Zuo & Jiancang Xie, 2019. "Daily Runoff Forecasting Using a Hybrid Model Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Deep Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1571-1590, March.
    7. Xing Zhang, 2018. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electric Bus Charging Stations Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Wolf Pack Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Lv, Yunlong & Hu, Qin & Xu, Hang & Lin, Huiyao & Wu, Yufan, 2024. "An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method based on spatial-temporal attention graph convolutional model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    9. Bai, Yulong & Liu, Ming-De & Ding, Lin & Ma, Yong-Jie, 2021. "Double-layer staged training echo-state networks for wind speed prediction using variational mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    10. Liu, Xin & Cao, Zheming & Zhang, Zijun, 2021. "Short-term predictions of multiple wind turbine power outputs based on deep neural networks with transfer learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    11. García-Nieto, P.J. & García-Gonzalo, E. & Fernández, J.R. Alonso & Muñiz, C. Díaz, 2019. "Modeling of the algal atypical increase in La Barca reservoir using the DE optimized least square support vector machine approach with feature selection," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 461-480.
    12. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang, 2020. "Forecasting energy consumption and wind power generation using deep echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 598-613.
    13. Babak Mohammadi & Farshad Ahmadi & Saeid Mehdizadeh & Yiqing Guan & Quoc Bao Pham & Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh & Doan Quang Tri, 2020. "Developing Novel Robust Models to Improve the Accuracy of Daily Streamflow Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(10), pages 3387-3409, August.
    14. Madeline Hui Li Lee & Yee Chee Ser & Ganeshsree Selvachandran & Pham Huy Thong & Le Cuong & Le Hoang Son & Nguyen Trung Tuan & Vassilis C. Gerogiannis, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Forecasting Electricity Consumption Using Machine Learning Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-23, April.
    15. Farah, Shahid & David A, Wood & Humaira, Nisar & Aneela, Zameer & Steffen, Eger, 2022. "Short-term multi-hour ahead country-wide wind power prediction for Germany using gated recurrent unit deep learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    16. Zhang, Zhendong & Ye, Lei & Qin, Hui & Liu, Yongqi & Wang, Chao & Yu, Xiang & Yin, Xingli & Li, Jie, 2019. "Wind speed prediction method using Shared Weight Long Short-Term Memory Network and Gaussian Process Regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 270-284.
    17. Zhong, Mingwei & Xu, Cancheng & Xian, Zikang & He, Guanglin & Zhai, Yanpeng & Zhou, Yongwang & Fan, Jingmin, 2024. "DTTM: A deep temporal transfer model for ultra-short-term online wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    18. González-Sopeña, J.M. & Pakrashi, V. & Ghosh, B., 2021. "An overview of performance evaluation metrics for short-term statistical wind power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. Yu, Guangzheng & Liu, Chengquan & Tang, Bo & Chen, Rusi & Lu, Liu & Cui, Chaoyue & Hu, Yue & Shen, Lingxu & Muyeen, S.M., 2022. "Short term wind power prediction for regional wind farms based on spatial-temporal characteristic distribution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 599-612.
    20. Paulo S. G. de Mattos Neto & Manoel H. N. Marinho & Hugo Siqueira & Yara de Souza Tadano & Vivian Machado & Thiago Antonini Alves & João Fausto L. de Oliveira & Francisco Madeiro, 2020. "A Methodology to Increase the Accuracy of Particulate Matter Predictors Based on Time Decomposition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-33, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02786-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.