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From Changing Environment to Changing Extremes: Exploring the Future Streamflow and Associated Uncertainties Through Integrated Modelling System

Author

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  • Srishti Gaur

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Arnab Bandyopadhyay

    (North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology)

  • Rajendra Singh

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Climate and land-use changes can alter the dynamics of hydro-climatic extremes by modifying the flow regimes. Here, we have attempted to disentangle the relationship between changing environmental conditions and hydro-climatic extremes considering associated uncertainties for the Subarnarekha, a flood prone-basin of India. A comprehensive, integrated modelling system was developed that incorporates a spatially explicit land-use model, a hydrological model, and an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs). MIKE SHE/MIKE HYDRO RIVER was used to simulate the hydrological processes. The uncertainties associated with model parameters, model inputs, and model structures are analysed collectively using ‘quantile regression.’ A transferable framework was developed for the analysis of hydro-climatic extremes that deal with numerous aspects like sensitivity, occurrences, severity, and persistence for four-time horizons: baseline (1976–2005) and early (2020s), mid (2050s), end-centuries (2080s). ANOVA is used for partitioning uncertainty due to different sources. The results obtained from numerous analysis of the developed framework suggests that low, high, and medium flows will probably increase in the future (20%-85% increase), indicating a higher risk of floods, especially in the 2050s and 2080s. Partitioning of uncertainty suggests RCMs contribute 40%-62% to the uncertainty in streamflow projections. The developed modelling systems incorporates a flexible framework so update any other water sustainability issue in the future. These findings will help better meet the challenges associated with the possible risk of increasing high flows in the future by ceding references to the decision-makers for framing better prevention measures associated with land-use and climate changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Srishti Gaur & Arnab Bandyopadhyay & Rajendra Singh, 2021. "From Changing Environment to Changing Extremes: Exploring the Future Streamflow and Associated Uncertainties Through Integrated Modelling System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1889-1911, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02817-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02817-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sungwon Kim & Meysam Alizamir & Nam Won Kim & Ozgur Kisi, 2020. "Bayesian Model Averaging: A Unique Model Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy for Daily Streamflow Based on Different Antecedent Time Series," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki & Saeed Farzin & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi & Hojat Karami, 2021. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Frequency by Using Hybrid Machine Learning Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 199-223, January.
    3. M. Mohammad Rezapour Tabari, 2015. "Conjunctive Use Management under Uncertainty Conditions in Aquifer Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2967-2986, June.
    4. Khadije Norouzi Khatiri & Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan & Amin Sarang & Asghar Kamali, 2020. "Coupled Simulation-Optimization Model for the Management of Groundwater Resources by Considering Uncertainty and Conflict Resolution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(11), pages 3585-3608, September.
    5. I. G. Pechlivanidis & B. Arheimer & C. Donnelly & Y. Hundecha & S. Huang & V. Aich & L. Samaniego & S. Eisner & P. Shi, 2017. "Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 467-481, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Srishti Gaur & Rajendra Singh, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review on Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Change Modeling for Urban Development: Current Status and Future Prospects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-12, January.
    2. E. Pastén-Zapata & T. Eberhart & K. H. Jensen & J. C. Refsgaard & T. O. Sonnenborg, 2022. "Towards a More Robust Evaluation of Climate Model and Hydrological Impact Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3545-3560, August.

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