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New Approach for Sediment Yield Forecasting with a Two-Phase Feedforward Neuron Network-Particle Swarm Optimization Model Integrated with the Gravitational Search Algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Sarita Gajbhiye Meshram

    (Rani Durgawati University)

  • M. A. Ghorbani

    (University of Tabriz
    Near East University)

  • Ravinesh C. Deo

    (University of Southern Queensland)

  • Mahsa Hasanpour Kashani

    (University of Mohaghegh Ardabili)

  • Chandrashekhar Meshram

    (Rani Durgawati University)

  • Vahid Karimi

    (University of Tabriz)

Abstract

Predicting sediment yield is an important task for decision-makers in environmental monitoring and water management since the benefits of applying non-linear, artificial intelligence (AI) models for optimal prediction can be far reaching in real-life decision support systems. AI-based models are considered to be favorable predictive tools since the nonlinear nature of suspended sediment data series warrants the utilization of nonlinear predictive methods for feature extraction, and for accurate simulation of suspended sediment load. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches are employed to estimate the monthly sediment load where the two-phase Feed-forward Neuron Network Particle Swarm Optimization Gravitational Search Algorithm (FNN-PSOGSA) is developed, and then evaluated in respect to 3 distinct algorithms: the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Feed-forward Neuron Network (FNN) and the single-phase Feed-forward Neuron Network Particle Swarm Optimization (FNN-PSO). The study is carried out using the monthly rainfall, runoff and sediment data spanning a 10 year period (2000–2009) where about 75% of data are used in model training phase, 25% in testing phase. Three statistical performance criteria namely: the mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and the Willmott’s Index (WI) and diagnostic plots visualizing the tested results are used to evaluate the performance of four AI-based models. The results reveal that the objective model (the two-phase FNN-PSOGSA model) and the single-phase FNN-PSO model yielded more precise results compared to the other forecast models. This result accorded to an NSE value of 0.612 (for the FNN-PSOGSA model) vs. an NS value of 0.500, 0.331 and 0.244 for the FNN-PSO, FNN and ANFIS models, and WI = 0.832 vs. 0.771, 0.692 and 0.726, respectively The study also demonstrated that the FNN model generated slightly better results than the ANFIS model for the estimation of sediment load data but overall, the two-phase FNN-PSOGSA model outperformed all comparison models. In light of the superior performance, this research advocates that the fully-optimized two-phase FNN-PSOGSA model can be explored as a decision-support tool for monthly sediment load forecasting using the rainfall and runoff values as the predictor datasets.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarita Gajbhiye Meshram & M. A. Ghorbani & Ravinesh C. Deo & Mahsa Hasanpour Kashani & Chandrashekhar Meshram & Vahid Karimi, 2019. "New Approach for Sediment Yield Forecasting with a Two-Phase Feedforward Neuron Network-Particle Swarm Optimization Model Integrated with the Gravitational Search Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2335-2356, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:7:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02265-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02265-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melesse, A.M. & Ahmad, S. & McClain, M.E. & Wang, X. & Lim, Y.H., 2011. "Suspended sediment load prediction of river systems: An artificial neural network approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(5), pages 855-866, March.
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    3. Behrang, M.A. & Assareh, E. & Ghalambaz, M. & Assari, M.R. & Noghrehabadi, A.R., 2011. "Forecasting future oil demand in Iran using GSA (Gravitational Search Algorithm)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5649-5654.
    4. Shishir Gaur & Sudheer Ch & Didier Graillot & B. Chahar & D. Kumar, 2013. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimization for the Management of Groundwater Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(3), pages 927-941, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lubna Jamal Chachan, 2022. "Models for Predicting River Suspended Sediment Load Using Machine Learning: A Survey," Technium, Technium Science, vol. 4(1), pages 239-249.
    2. Yin, Juan & Deng, Zhen & Ines, Amor V.M. & Wu, Junbin & Rasu, Eeswaran, 2020. "Forecast of short-term daily reference evapotranspiration under limited meteorological variables using a hybrid bi-directional long short-term memory model (Bi-LSTM)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Salah L. Zubaidi & Sandra Ortega-Martorell & Patryk Kot & Rafid M. Alkhaddar & Mawada Abdellatif & Sadik K. Gharghan & Maytham S. Ahmed & Khalid Hashim, 2020. "A Method for Predicting Long-Term Municipal Water Demands Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1265-1279, February.
    4. Quoc Bao Pham & S. I. Abba & Abdullahi Garba Usman & Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh & Vivek Gupta & Anurag Malik & Romulus Costache & Ngoc Duong Vo & Doan Quang Tri, 2019. "Potential of Hybrid Data-Intelligence Algorithms for Multi-Station Modelling of Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5067-5087, December.
    5. Alireza Moghaddam Nia & Debasmita Misra & Mahsa Hasanpour Kashani & Mohsen Ghafari & Madhumita Sahoo & Marzieh Ghodsi & Mohammad Tahmoures & Somayeh Taheri & Maryam Sadat Jaafarzadeh, 2023. "Runoff and Sediment Yield Processes in a Tropical Eastern Indian River Basin: A Multiple Machine Learning Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-15, August.
    6. Arvind Yadav & Premkumar Chithaluru & Aman Singh & Marwan Ali Albahar & Anca Jurcut & Roberto Marcelo Álvarez & Ramesh Kumar Mojjada & Devendra Joshi, 2022. "Suspended Sediment Yield Forecasting with Single and Multi-Objective Optimization Using Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(22), pages 1-22, November.

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