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Reservoir Water-Quality Projections under Climate-Change Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Firoozeh Azadi

    (University of Qom)

  • Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh

    (University of Qom)

  • Hugo A. Loáiciga

    (University of California)

Abstract

Reservoirs are key components of water infrastructure that serve many functions (water supply, hydropower generation, flood control, recreation, ecosystem services, etc.). Climate change affects the hydrology of the tributary areas to reservoirs, which may profoundly impact their operation and possibly the reservoirs’ water quality, among which the temperature gradient and the total dissolved solids (TDS) are key qualitative characteristics of reservoirs, especially those with irrigation function. This study examines water-quality changes in the Aidoghmoush reservoir (East Azerbaijan-Iran) under climate-change conditions in the period 2026–2039. The temperature and precipitation climate variables are calculated by the HadCM3 model driven by emission scenario A2 in the baseline period (1987–2000), and these variables are then projected over the future period (2026–2039). The average annual runoff under climate-change conditions is simulated by the IHACRES model. The results show the future average annual runoff would decrease by about 1% compared to the baseline conditions. The CE-QUAL-W2 model is employed to simulate the reservoir water quality. It is predicted the surface air temperature would increase by 1.3 °C under the climate-change scenario compared to the baseline condition, and the temperatures of the reservoir’s surface- and bottom-waters would increase by 1.19 and 1.24 °C, respectively. The average TDS near the reservoir surface would increase by 44.5 g/m3 (4.3%) relative to baseline TDS. The TDS near the reservoir surface are projected to be highest in autumn and winter for baseline and future conditions. This research shows that changes due to climate change are potentially severe, and presents a methodology that could assist managers and planners to find optimal strategies of reservoir operation to cope with changes in thermal stratification and TDS. This paper results identify the reservoir levels from which to withdraw water with the best water-quality characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Firoozeh Azadi & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2019. "Reservoir Water-Quality Projections under Climate-Change Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 401-421, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2109-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2109-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Parisa Ashofteh & Omid Bozorg Haddad & Miguel Mariño, 2013. "Scenario Assessment of Streamflow Simulation and its Transition Probability in Future Periods Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 255-274, January.
    2. Hye Lee & Eun Kim & Seok Park & Jung Choi, 2012. "Effects of climate change on the thermal structure of lakes in the Asian Monsoon Area," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 859-880, June.
    3. Jonathan Butcher & Daniel Nover & Thomas Johnson & Christopher Clark, 2015. "Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 295-305, March.
    4. Ashkan Shokri & Omid Bozorg Haddad & Miguel Mariño, 2014. "Multi-Objective Quantity–Quality Reservoir Operation in Sudden Pollution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 567-586, January.
    5. J. Yazdi & A . Moridi, 2017. "Interactive Reservoir-Watershed Modeling Framework for Integrated Water Quality Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(7), pages 2105-2125, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Parvin Golfam & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Taher Rajaee & Xuefeng Chu, 2019. "Prioritization of Water Allocation for Adaptation to Climate Change Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3401-3416, August.
    2. Mahboubeh Khorsandi & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Firoozeh Azadi & Xuefeng Chu, 2022. "Multi-Objective Firefly Integration with the K-Nearest Neighbor to Reduce Simulation Model Calls to Accelerate the Optimal Operation of Multi-Objective Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 3283-3304, July.
    3. Kosar Ebrahimzadeh Azbari & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Parvin Golfam & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2022. "Ranking of wastewater reuse allocation alternatives using a variance-based weighted aggregated sum product assessment method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 2497-2513, February.
    4. Lin, Yu-I & Pan, Shu-Yuan & Chang, Hui-Hsien & Yu, Mei-Siang & Lin, Wei-Lung, 2023. "Will extreme drought impact the reservoir water quality? A 30-year observational study," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    5. Sayani Dey & Andrew Barton & Harpreet Kandra & Adil Bagirov & Kym Wilson, 2021. "Analysis of Water Quantity and Quality Trade-Offs to Inform Selective Harvesting of Inflows in Complex Water Resource Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4149-4165, September.

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