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Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change

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  • Jonathan Butcher
  • Daniel Nover
  • Thomas Johnson
  • Christopher Clark

Abstract

Warming-induced changes in lake thermal and mixing regimes present risks to water quality and ecosystem services provided by U.S. lakes and reservoirs. Modulation of responses by different physical and hydroclimatic settings are not well understood. We explore the potential effects of climate change on 27 lake “archetypes” representative of a range of lakes and reservoirs occurring throughout the U.S. Archetypes are based on different combinations of depth, surface area, and water clarity. LISSS, a one-dimensional dynamic thermal simulation model, is applied to assess lake response to multiple mid-21st century change scenarios applied to nine baseline climate series from different hydroclimatic regions of the U.S. Results show surface water temperature increases of about 77 % of increase in average air temperature change. Bottom temperature changes are less (around 30 %) for deep lakes and in regions that maintain mid-winter air temperatures below freezing. Significant decreases in length of ice cover are projected, and the extent and strength of stratification will increase throughout the U.S., with systematic differences associated with depth, surface area, and clarity. These projected responses suggest a range of future challenges that lake managers are likely to face. Changes in thermal and mixing dynamics suggest increased risk of summer hypoxic conditions and cyanobacterial blooms. Increased water temperatures above the summer thermocline could be a problem for cold water fisheries management in many lakes. Climate-induced changes in water balance and mass inputs of nutrients may further exacerbate the vulnerability of lakes to climate change. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Butcher & Daniel Nover & Thomas Johnson & Christopher Clark, 2015. "Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 295-305, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:1:p:295-305
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1326-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Schmid & Stefan Hunziker & Alfred Wüest, 2014. "Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 301-315, May.
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    1. Ratté-Fortin, Claudie & Chokmani, Karem & El Alem, Anas & Laurion, Isabelle, 2022. "A regional model to predict the occurrence of natural events: Application to phytoplankton blooms in continental waterbodies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    2. Jian Zhou & Peter R. Leavitt & Kevin C. Rose & Xiwen Wang & Yibo Zhang & Kun Shi & Boqiang Qin, 2023. "Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Lin, Yu-I & Pan, Shu-Yuan & Chang, Hui-Hsien & Yu, Mei-Siang & Lin, Wei-Lung, 2023. "Will extreme drought impact the reservoir water quality? A 30-year observational study," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    4. Firoozeh Azadi & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2019. "Reservoir Water-Quality Projections under Climate-Change Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 401-421, January.
    5. Fang Yang & Weiying Feng & Leppäranta Matti & Yu Yang & Ioanna Merkouriadi & Rui Cen & Yangwei Bai & Changyou Li & Haiqing Liao, 2020. "Simulation and Seasonal Characteristics of the Intra-Annual Heat Exchange Process in a Shallow Ice-Covered Lake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    6. Laura Melo Vieira Soares & Maria Calijuri & Talita Fernanda Silva & Evlyn Marcia Leão Novo, 2021. "Climate change enhances deepwater warming of subtropical reservoirs: evidence from hydrodynamic modelling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-19, May.
    7. R. Iestyn Woolway, 2023. "The pace of shifting seasons in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Dibike, Yonas & Marshall, Rebecca & de Rham, Laurent, 2024. "Climatic sensitivity of seasonal ice-cover, water temperature and biogeochemical cycling in Lake 239 of the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA), Ontario, Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 489(C).
    9. Farrell, Kaitlin J. & Ward, Nicole K. & Krinos, Arianna I. & Hanson, Paul C. & Daneshmand, Vahid & Figueiredo, Renato J. & Carey, Cayelan C., 2020. "Ecosystem-scale nutrient cycling responses to increasing air temperatures vary with lake trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    10. Shahram Missaghi & Miki Hondzo & William Herb, 2017. "Prediction of lake water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fish habitat under changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 747-757, April.
    11. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & Marco Toffolon, 2018. "The fate of Lake Baikal: how climate change may alter deep ventilation in the largest lake on Earth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 181-194, October.
    12. Shabnam Salehi & Mojtaba Ardestani, 2024. "Investigating Changes of Water Quality in Reservoirs based on Flood and Inflow Fluctuations," Papers 2403.05671, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.

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