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Risk Probability Assessment of Sudden Water Pollution in the Plain River Network Based on Random Discharge from Multiple Risk Sources

Author

Listed:
  • Dayong Li

    (Hohai University)

  • Zengchuan Dong

    (Hohai University)

  • Liyao Shi

    (Hohai University)

  • Jintao Liu

    (Hohai University)

  • Zhenye Zhu

    (Hohai University)

  • Wei Xu

    (Hohai University)

Abstract

Starting from the time variance and uncertainty of accidental discharge, this paper describes the probability of the occurrence of the “normal-accident” alternate state for a risk source using the Markov state transfer model, simulates the behaviour of pollutants in rivers using the hydrodynamic and water quality models for non-conservative substances, and tracks the transport path of pollutants in rivers using the water quality model for conservative substances. The above models are coupled with the Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, and the risk probability analysis model for sudden water pollution in the plain river network is established and applied to the Yixing river network. The results show that (a) the risk probability of exceeding ammonia nitrogen standard (PES of ammonia nitrogen) is lower in the upper reaches and higher in the middle and lower reaches; (b) dynamic changes in pollutant concentration lead to different changes in the PES of ammonia nitrogen in each reach; (c) the differences in the simulated PES values between the sudden scheme and the stable scheme (NPES of ammonia nitrogen) in the upper and middle reaches show a patchy distribution of high and low values, which are related to the risk source location, the water movement direction and the concentration change in the reach after accepting pollutant loads from the risk sources; (d) the NPES of ammonia nitrogen in the lower reaches results from the coupling effect caused by accidental discharges from multiple risk sources; and (e) the different effects of the lower boundary hydrological conditions on the upstream water inflow lead to the different coupling effect on the water quality probability of sections in the downstream area.

Suggested Citation

  • Dayong Li & Zengchuan Dong & Liyao Shi & Jintao Liu & Zhenye Zhu & Wei Xu, 2019. "Risk Probability Assessment of Sudden Water Pollution in the Plain River Network Based on Random Discharge from Multiple Risk Sources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4051-4065, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02366-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02366-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sou-Sen Leu & Quang-Nha Bui, 2016. "Leak Prediction Model for Water Distribution Networks Created Using a Bayesian Network Learning Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(8), pages 2719-2733, June.
    2. Hong Yao & Xin Qian & Hong Yin & Hailong Gao & Yulei Wang, 2015. "Regional Risk Assessment for Point Source Pollution Based on a Water Quality Model of the Taipu River, China," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 265-277, February.
    3. Uusitalo, Laura, 2007. "Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 312-318.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bojun Liu & Jun Xia & Feilin Zhu & Jin Quan & Hao Wang, 2021. "Response of Hydrodynamics and Water-quality Conditions to Climate Change in a Shallow Lake," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4961-4976, November.
    2. Dayong Li & Zengchuan Dong & Chuanhai Wang & Jintao Liu & Hongyi Yao, 2020. "Calculation Method for the Early Warning Index of Sudden Water Pollution Based on the Linear Variation Assumption of the Substance Concentration in the River Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2821-2835, July.

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