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Regional Risk Assessment for Point Source Pollution Based on a Water Quality Model of the Taipu River, China

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  • Hong Yao
  • Xin Qian
  • Hong Yin
  • Hailong Gao
  • Yulei Wang

Abstract

Point source pollution is one of the main threats to regional environmental health. Based on a water quality model, a methodology to assess the regional risk of point source pollution is proposed. The assessment procedure includes five parts: (1) identifying risk source units and estimating source emissions using Monte Carlo algorithms; (2) observing hydrological and water quality data of the assessed area, and evaluating the selected water quality model; (3) screening out the assessment endpoints and analyzing receptor vulnerability with the Choquet fuzzy integral algorithm; (4) using the water quality model introduced in the second step to predict pollutant concentrations for various source emission scenarios and analyzing hazards of risk sources; and finally, (5) using the source hazard values and receptor vulnerability scores to estimate overall regional risk. The proposed method, based on the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP), was applied in the region of the Taipu River, which is in the Taihu Basin, China. Results of source hazard and receptor vulnerability analysis allowed us to describe aquatic ecological, human health, and socioeconomic risks individually, and also integrated risks in the Taipu region, from a series of risk curves. Risk contributions of sources to receptors were ranked, and the spatial distribution of risk levels was presented. By changing the input conditions, we were able to estimate risks for a range of scenarios. Thus, the proposed procedure may also be used by decisionmakers for long‐term dynamic risk prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Yao & Xin Qian & Hong Yin & Hailong Gao & Yulei Wang, 2015. "Regional Risk Assessment for Point Source Pollution Based on a Water Quality Model of the Taipu River, China," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 265-277, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:2:p:265-277
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12259
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    2. Hong Yao & Weixin Li & Xin Qian, 2015. "Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Liangdong Lu & Hong Huang & Jiuchang Wei & Jia Xu, 2020. "Safety Regulations and the Uncertainty of Work‐Related Road Accident Loss: The Triple Identity of Chinese Local Governments Under Principal–Agent Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1168-1182, June.
    4. Hong Yao & Wei Zhuang & Yu Qian & Bisheng Xia & Yang Yang & Xin Qian, 2016. "Estimating and Predicting Metal Concentration Using Online Turbidity Values and Water Quality Models in Two Rivers of the Taihu Basin, Eastern China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Valentina Ferretti & Gilberto Montibeller, 2019. "An Integrated Framework for Environmental Multi‐Impact Spatial Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 257-273, January.
    6. Dayong Li & Zengchuan Dong & Liyao Shi & Jintao Liu & Zhenye Zhu & Wei Xu, 2019. "Risk Probability Assessment of Sudden Water Pollution in the Plain River Network Based on Random Discharge from Multiple Risk Sources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4051-4065, September.
    7. Mengjie Yang & Kai Yang & Yue Che & Shiqiang Lu & Fengyun Sun & Ying Chen & Mengting Li, 2021. "Resolving Transboundary Water Conflicts: Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis Using an Improved GMCR Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3321-3338, August.
    8. Hong Yao & Zhen You & Bo Liu, 2016. "Economic Estimation of the Losses Caused by Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China From the Perspective of Water Bodies’ Functions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, January.
    9. Hong Yao & Tianhua Ni & Tongzhu Zhang, 2020. "Estimation of phosphorus flux into the sea through one reversing river using continuous turbidities and water quality modeling," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 4251-4265, June.

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