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An accident data–based approach for congestion risk assessment of inland waterways: A Yangtze River case

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  • Di Zhang
  • Xinping Yan
  • Zaili Yang
  • Jin Wang

Abstract

Inland waterway transportation is often claimed to be reliable, congestion-free, economic and environmentally friendly. However, inland waterway transport accidents such as groundings cause congestions that can easily reduce the navigational capability of the waterways with confined channel dimensions particularly during a dry season. An accident data–based approach is presented in this article to assess the congestion risk of inland waterways using a case of the Yangtze River. Through a correlation analysis of historical failure data, the safety critical factors of congestion are first identified and used to establish a Bayesian network for the analysis and prediction of the congestion risk in the Yangtze River. A Congestion Risk Index is then developed by taking into account both probability and consequence of congestion risks in order to evaluate the impacts of various safety critical factors (i.e. Visibility, Gross Tonnage, etc.) on the congestion of the Yangtze River. The outcomes of this work can be used to effectively diagnose and predict the congestion risks of inland waterways in general and the Yangtze River in specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Zhang & Xinping Yan & Zaili Yang & Jin Wang, 2014. "An accident data–based approach for congestion risk assessment of inland waterways: A Yangtze River case," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(2), pages 176-188, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:228:y:2014:i:2:p:176-188
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X13508107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daozheng Huang & Gang Zhao, 2019. "A Shared Container Transportation Mode in the Yangtze River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    2. Wang, Likun & Yang, Zaili, 2018. "Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 277-289.
    3. Jiang, Yonglei & Lu, Jing & Cai, Yutong & Zeng, Qingcheng, 2018. "Analysis of the impacts of different modes of governance on inland waterway transport development on the Pearl River: The Yangtze River Mode vs. the Pearl River Mode," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 235-252.
    4. Gino J. Lim & Jaeyoung Cho & Selim Bora & Taofeek Biobaku & Hamid Parsaei, 2018. "Models and computational algorithms for maritime risk analysis: a review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 765-786, December.

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