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Exploring Future Water Shortage for Large River Basins under Different Water Allocation Strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Yan

    (Wageningen University & Research
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research)

  • Mingtian Yao

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Fulco Ludwig

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Pavel Kabat

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • He Qing Huang

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research)

  • Ronald W. A. Hutjes

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Saskia E. Werners

    (Wageningen University & Research)

Abstract

Climate change and socio-economic development increase variations in water availability and water use in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China. This can potentially result in conflicts over water resources between water users, and cause water shortage in the dry season. To assess and manage water shortage in the PRB, we first explored two water availability and three water use scenarios. Next, four different strategies to allocate water were defined. These water allocation strategies prioritized upstream water use, Pearl River Delta water use, irrigation water use, and manufacturing water use, respectively. The impact of the four strategies on water use and related economic output was assessed under different water availability and water use scenarios. Results show that almost all the regions in the PRB are likely to face water shortage under the four strategies. The increasing water demand contributes twice as much as the decreasing water availability to water shortage. All four water allocation strategies are insufficient to solve the water scarcity in the PRB. The economic losses differ greatly under the four water allocation strategies. Prioritizing the delta region or manufacturing production would result in lower economic losses than the other two strategies. However, all of them are rather extreme strategies. Development of water resources management strategies requires a compromise between different water users.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Yan & Mingtian Yao & Fulco Ludwig & Pavel Kabat & He Qing Huang & Ronald W. A. Hutjes & Saskia E. Werners, 2018. "Exploring Future Water Shortage for Large River Basins under Different Water Allocation Strategies," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3071-3086, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1975-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1975-8
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    2. Jisi Fu & Ping-an Zhong & Juan Chen & Bin Xu & Feilin Zhu & Yu Zhang, 2019. "Water Resources Allocation in Transboundary River Basins Based on a Game Model Considering Inflow Forecasting Errors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2809-2825, June.
    3. Silvia Di Francesco & Stefano Casadei & Ilaria Di Mella & Francesca Giannone, 2022. "The Role of Small Reservoirs in a Water Scarcity Scenario: a Computational Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 875-889, February.
    4. Yaxin Shi & Suning Liu & Haiyun Shi, 2022. "Analysis of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Water Competition Based on a Bayesian Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 3349-3366, July.
    5. Zachary Darby & Neelam Chandra Poudyal & Adam Frakes & Omkar Joshi, 2021. "Economic Analysis of Recreation Access at a Lake Facing Water Crisis due to Municipal Water Demand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(9), pages 2909-2920, July.

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