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Decision-making in Water Management under Uncertainty

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  • Yue-Ping Xu
  • Yeou-Koung Tung

Abstract

Decision-making in water management requires the delivery of accurate scientific information. However, the task is challenging under the situation where a large amount of uncertainty exists in the available information (e.g., model outputs). This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the ranking of options in water management. Different methods for ranking the management options under uncertainty are reviewed and they account for only partial uncertainty information in model outputs. To consider the full uncertainty information, a new ranking procedure is proposed in this paper, which is capable of providing more information to decision makers and at the same time taking their opinions on uncertainty into consideration. The ranking is achieved by conducting pair-wise comparison of management options, on the basis of the risk defined by the probability of obtaining an unacceptable ranking and the mean difference in model outputs in pair-wise comparison. An application example is presented to illustrate the use of the proposed ranking approach. Furthermore, the sensitivity of management option ranking to different ranking methods and to model uncertainty is also investigated. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Yue-Ping Xu & Yeou-Koung Tung, 2008. "Decision-making in Water Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(5), pages 535-550, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:22:y:2008:i:5:p:535-550
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-007-9176-x
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    1. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
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    1. Carlo Giupponi, 2014. "Decision Support for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4795-4808, October.
    2. B. Mehdi & K. Schulz & R. Ludwig & F. Ferber & B. Lehner, 2018. "Evaluating the Importance of Non-Unique Behavioural Parameter Sets on Surface Water Quality Variables under Climate Change Conditions in a Mesoscale Agricultural Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(2), pages 619-639, January.
    3. Fei Li & Huan-Feng Duan & Hexiang Yan & Tao Tao, 2015. "Multi-Objective Optimal Design of Detention Tanks in the Urban Stormwater Drainage System: Framework Development and Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2125-2137, May.
    4. Imad Antoine Ibrahim, 2020. "Legal Implications of the Use of Big Data in the Transboundary Water Context," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(3), pages 1139-1153, February.
    5. Yohannes Hagos Subagadis & Niels Schütze & Jens Grundmann, 2016. "A Fuzzy-Stochastic Modeling Approach for Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis of Coupled Groundwater-Agricultural Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 2075-2095, April.
    6. Hsin-Ting SU & Yeou-Koung Tung, 2014. "Comparisons of Risk-based Decision Rules for the Application of Water Resources Planning and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3921-3935, September.
    7. Julio Berbel & Julia Martin-Ortega & Pascual Mesa, 2011. "A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Water-Saving Measures for the Water Framework Directive: the Case of the Guadalquivir River Basin in Southern Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 623-640, January.
    8. Nicola Isendahl & Art Dewulf & Marcela Brugnach & Greet François & Sabine Möllenkamp & Claudia Pahl-Wostl, 2009. "Assessing Framing of Uncertainties in Water Management Practice," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(15), pages 3191-3205, December.
    9. Huan-Feng Duan & Fei Li & Hexiang Yan, 2016. "Multi-Objective Optimal Design of Detention Tanks in the Urban Stormwater Drainage System: LID Implementation and Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4635-4648, October.

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