IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v30y2016i6d10.1007_s11269-016-1270-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Fuzzy-Stochastic Modeling Approach for Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis of Coupled Groundwater-Agricultural Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Yohannes Hagos Subagadis

    (TU Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology)

  • Niels Schütze

    (TU Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology)

  • Jens Grundmann

    (TU Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology)

Abstract

The complexity of water resources management increases when decisions about environmental and social issues are considered in addition to economic efficiency. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. In this paper, a new fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision-making approach is proposed for water resources management in which a variety of criteria in terms of economic, environmental and social dimensions are identified and taken into account. The goal is to evaluate multiple conflicting criteria under uncertainties and to rank a set of management alternatives. The methodology uses a simulation-optimization water management model of a strongly interacting groundwater-agriculture system to enumerate criteria based on these bio-physical process interactions. Fuzzy and/or qualitative information regarding the decision-making process for which quantitative data is not available are evaluated in linguistic terms. Afterwards, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to combine these information and to generate a probabilistic decision matrix of management alternatives versus criteria in an uncertain environment. Based on this outcome, total performance values of the management alternatives are calculated using ordered weighted averaging. The proposed approach is applied to a real world example, where excessive groundwater withdrawal from the coastal aquifer for irrigated agriculture has resulted in saltwater intrusion, threatening the economical basis of farmers and associated societal impacts. The analysis has provided potential decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. Furthermore, sensitivity of different inputs to resulting rankings is investigated. It is found that decision makers’ risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield different rankings. The presented approach suits to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management.

Suggested Citation

  • Yohannes Hagos Subagadis & Niels Schütze & Jens Grundmann, 2016. "A Fuzzy-Stochastic Modeling Approach for Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis of Coupled Groundwater-Agricultural Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 2075-2095, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1270-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1270-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-016-1270-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-016-1270-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yue-Ping Xu & Yeou-Koung Tung, 2008. "Decision-making in Water Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(5), pages 535-550, May.
    2. Yeonjoo Kim & Eun-Sung Chung & Sang-Mook Jun, 2015. "Iterative Framework for Robust Reclaimed Wastewater Allocation in a Changing Environment Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 295-311, January.
    3. Chou, Shuo-Yan & Chang, Yao-Hui & Shen, Chun-Ying, 2008. "A fuzzy simple additive weighting system under group decision-making for facility location selection with objective/subjective attributes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 132-145, August.
    4. Hao Fanghua & Chen Guanchun, 2010. "A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making Model Based on Weighted Borda Scoring Method for Watershed Ecological Risk Management: a Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(10), pages 2139-2165, August.
    5. Theodor J Stewart, 2005. "Dealing with Uncertainties in MCDA," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys, chapter 0, pages 445-466, Springer.
    6. Amin Afshar & Miguel Mariño & Motahareh Saadatpour & Abbas Afshar, 2011. "Fuzzy TOPSIS Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Applied to Karun Reservoirs System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 545-563, January.
    7. Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf & Alfred Kalyanapu & Eun-Sung Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Inundation Duration and Velocity on Selection of Flood Management Alternatives Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2543-2561, June.
    8. S. Meysam Mousavi & Fariborz Jolai & Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, 2013. "A Fuzzy Stochastic Multi-Attribute Group Decision-Making Approach for Selection Problems," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 207-233, March.
    9. Stefan Hajkowicz & Kerry Collins, 2007. "A Review of Multiple Criteria Analysis for Water Resource Planning and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(9), pages 1553-1566, September.
    10. Eric Wong & George Norman & Roger Flanagan, 2000. "A fuzzy stochastic technique for project selection," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 407-414.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jelena Markovic Brankovic & Milica Markovic & Djordje Nikolic, 2018. "Comparative study of hydraulic structures alternatives using promethee II complete ranking method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(10), pages 3457-3471, August.
    2. Shamraiz Ahmad & Kuan Yew Wong & Babar Zaman, 2019. "A Comprehensive and Integrated Stochastic-Fuzzy Method for Sustainability Assessment in the Malaysian Food Manufacturing Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-23, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaveh Madani & Laura Read & Laleh Shalikarian, 2014. "Voting Under Uncertainty: A Stochastic Framework for Analyzing Group Decision Making Problems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1839-1856, May.
    2. Arash Malekian & Ali Azarnivand, 2016. "Application of Integrated Shannon’s Entropy and VIKOR Techniques in Prioritization of Flood Risk in the Shemshak Watershed, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 409-425, January.
    3. A. Psomas & I. Vryzidis & A. Spyridakos & M. Mimikou, 2021. "MCDA approach for agricultural water management in the context of water–energy–land–food nexus," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 689-723, March.
    4. Ali Azarnivand & Arash Malekian, 2016. "Analysis of Flood Risk Management Strategies Based on a Group Decision Making Process via Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 1903-1921, April.
    5. Hassan Hashemi & Jalal Bazargan & S. Mousavi, 2013. "A Compromise Ratio Method with an Application to Water Resources Management: An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2029-2051, May.
    6. Mahdi Zarghami, 2010. "Urban Water Management Using Fuzzy-Probabilistic Multi-Objective Programming with Dynamic Efficiency," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(15), pages 4491-4504, December.
    7. S. Meysam Mousavi & Fariborz Jolai & Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, 2013. "A Fuzzy Stochastic Multi-Attribute Group Decision-Making Approach for Selection Problems," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 207-233, March.
    8. Xin-Yu Wan & Ping-An Zhong & Emmanuel Appiah-Adjei, 2014. "Variable Sets and Fuzzy Rating Interval for Water Allocation Options Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2833-2849, August.
    9. Andreas Lindhe & Lars Rosén & Tommy Norberg & Jon Røstum & Thomas J. R. Pettersson, 2013. "Uncertainty modelling in multi-criteria analysis of water safety measures," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 195-208, June.
    10. S. Toosi & J. Samani, 2012. "Evaluating Water Transfer Projects Using Analytic Network Process (ANP)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 1999-2014, May.
    11. Arash Malekian & Ali Azarnivand, 2016. "Application of Integrated Shannon’s Entropy and VIKOR Techniques in Prioritization of Flood Risk in the Shemshak Watershed, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 409-425, January.
    12. S. Razavi Toosi & J. Samani, 2014. "A New Integrated MADM Technique Combined with ANP, FTOPSIS and Fuzzy Max-Min Set Method for Evaluating Water Transfer Projects," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4257-4272, September.
    13. Scholten, Lisa & Schuwirth, Nele & Reichert, Peter & Lienert, Judit, 2015. "Tackling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis – An application to water supply infrastructure planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 243-260.
    14. Jiang, Yanping & Liang, Xia & Liang, Haiming & Yang, Ningman, 2018. "Multiple criteria decision making with interval stochastic variables: A method based on interval stochastic dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 632-643.
    15. Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf & Alfred Kalyanapu & Eun-Sung Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Inundation Duration and Velocity on Selection of Flood Management Alternatives Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2543-2561, June.
    16. Saeid Ghafoori & Hossein Hassanpour Darvishi & Hossein Mohamadvali Samani & Pezhman Taherei Ghazvinei, 2021. "Enhancing the Method of Decentralized Multi-Purpose Reuse of Wastewater in Urban Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Madson Bruno da Silva Monte & Danielle Costa Morais, 2019. "A Decision Model for Identifying and Solving Problems in an Urban Water Supply System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(14), pages 4835-4848, November.
    18. Mónica de Castro-Pardo & Pascual Fernández Martínez & Amelia Pérez Zabaleta & João C. Azevedo, 2021. "Dealing with Water Conflicts: A Comprehensive Review of MCDM Approaches to Manage Freshwater Ecosystem Services," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-32, April.
    19. Serafim Opricovic, 2009. "A Compromise Solution in Water Resources Planning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(8), pages 1549-1561, June.
    20. Marcin Rabe & Dalia Streimikiene & Yuriy Bilan, 2019. "The Concept of Risk and Possibilities of Application of Mathematical Methods in Supporting Decision Making for Sustainable Energy Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1270-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.