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Voting Under Uncertainty: A Stochastic Framework for Analyzing Group Decision Making Problems

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  • Kaveh Madani
  • Laura Read
  • Laleh Shalikarian

Abstract

Water resources policy making often involves consideration of a broader scope of environmental, economic, and social issues. This inevitably complicates policy making since consensus among multiple stakeholders with different interests is needed to implement decisions. This work employs several practical and popular voting methods to solve a multi-stakeholder hydro-environmental management problem. Conventionally, voting methods or social choice rules have been applied for consensus development in small groups and elections. This work combines voting methods with a Monte-Carlo selection, in order to help with social choice making under uncertainty. This process is intended to aid decision-makers with understanding of the risks associated with potential decision alternatives. The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta’s water export conflict is solved here as a benchmark problem to illustrate the proposed framework for social decision making and analysis under uncertainty. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kaveh Madani & Laura Read & Laleh Shalikarian, 2014. "Voting Under Uncertainty: A Stochastic Framework for Analyzing Group Decision Making Problems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1839-1856, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:7:p:1839-1856
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0556-8
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    2. Khadije Norouzi Khatiri & Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan & Amin Sarang & Asghar Kamali, 2020. "Coupled Simulation-Optimization Model for the Management of Groundwater Resources by Considering Uncertainty and Conflict Resolution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(11), pages 3585-3608, September.
    3. Adiel T. de Almeida-Filho & Madson B. S. Monte & Danielle C. Morais, 2017. "A Voting Approach Applied to Preventive Maintenance Management of a Water Supply System," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 523-546, May.
    4. Aleksandras KRYLOVAS & Natalja KOSAREVA & Edmundas Kazimieras ZAVADSKAS, 2016. "Statistical Analysis of KEMIRA Type Weights Balancing Methods," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 19-39, September.
    5. Yuni Xu & Xiang Fu & Xuefeng Chu, 2019. "Analyzing the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydro-Environmental Conflict-Resolution Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1591-1607, March.
    6. Longxia Qian & Hongrui Wang & Keni Zhang, 2014. "Evaluation Criteria and Model for Risk Between Water Supply and Water Demand and its Application in Beijing," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4433-4447, October.
    7. García-Lapresta, José Luis & Martínez-Panero, Miguel, 2024. "Two characterizations of the dense rank," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Jos'e Luis Garc'ia-Lapresta & Miguel Mart'inez-Panero, 2023. "Two characterizations of the dense rank," Papers 2306.17546, arXiv.org.
    9. Ali Reza Nafarzadegan & Hassan Vagharfard & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Ahmad Nohegar, 2018. "Socially-Optimal and Nash Pareto-Based Alternatives for Water Allocation under Uncertainty: an Approach and Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 2985-3000, July.
    10. Marcella Maia Urtiga & Danielle Costa Morais & Keith W. Hipel & D. Marc Kilgour, 2017. "Group Decision Methodology to Support Watershed Committees in Choosing Among Combinations of Alternatives," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 729-752, July.
    11. Read, Laura & Madani, Kaveh & Mokhtari, Soroush & Hanks, Catherine, 2017. "Stakeholder-driven multi-attribute analysis for energy project selection under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 744-753.

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