IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i4p1018-d206334.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Concept of Risk and Possibilities of Application of Mathematical Methods in Supporting Decision Making for Sustainable Energy Development

Author

Listed:
  • Marcin Rabe

    (Faculty of Management and Economics of Services, University of Szczecin, 71-004 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Dalia Streimikiene

    (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, V. Kudirkos Str. 18–2, 03105 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • Yuriy Bilan

    (Faculty of Management, Rzeszów University of Technology, al. Powstańców Warszawy 12, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland)

Abstract

This study is devoted to presentation of the concept of risk, and the possibility of applying mathematical methods in supporting decision making in the energy sector to promote sustainable energy development. The problem with risk assessment in the energy sector arises mainly due to the difficulty of expressing risk in numerical terms. To avoid risk, it is necessary to set the criteria and objectives of measurement before making decisions in the energy sector. The aim of this study is to try to fill in this gap by means of comparing decisions under risk conditions within models supporting energy decisions. The authors’ focus is on the problem of risk in supporting decision making towards sustainable energy sector development, which is the main target of the European Union (EU) energy policies. Without the ability to determine the probability of occurrence of certain phenomena and their inclusion into the model, it is not possible to determine how well the solutions resulting from the models are accurate, and what is the probability of their implementation under specific conditions linked to renewable energy development.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcin Rabe & Dalia Streimikiene & Yuriy Bilan, 2019. "The Concept of Risk and Possibilities of Application of Mathematical Methods in Supporting Decision Making for Sustainable Energy Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:4:p:1018-:d:206334
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/4/1018/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/4/1018/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zeng, Ziqiang & Nasri, Ehsan & Chini, Abdol & Ries, Robert & Xu, Jiuping, 2015. "A multiple objective decision making model for energy generation portfolio under fuzzy uncertainty: Case study of large scale investor-owned utilities in Florida," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 224-242.
    2. Kenneth Gillingham & Richard G. Newell & Karen Palmer, 2009. "Energy Efficiency Economics and Policy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 597-620, September.
    3. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    4. Mostafa Shaaban & Jürgen Scheffran & Jürgen Böhner & Mohamed S. Elsobki, 2018. "Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, May.
    5. Streimikiene, Dalia & Balezentis, Tomas & Krisciukaitienė, Irena & Balezentis, Alvydas, 2012. "Prioritizing sustainable electricity production technologies: MCDM approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3302-3311.
    6. Strantzali, Eleni & Aravossis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Decision making in renewable energy investments: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 885-898.
    7. Baležentis, Tomas & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2017. "Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 862-871.
    8. Feurtey, Évariste & Ilinca, Adrian & Sakout, Anas & Saucier, Carol, 2016. "Institutional factors influencing strategic decision-making in energy policy; a case study of wind energy in France and Quebec (Canada)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1455-1470.
    9. Zhang, Ling & Zhou, Peng & Newton, Sidney & Fang, Jian-xin & Zhou, De-qun & Zhang, Lu-ping, 2015. "Evaluating clean energy alternatives for Jiangsu, China: An improved multi-criteria decision making method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 953-964.
    10. Fausto Cavallaro & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Saulius Raslanas, 2016. "Evaluation of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Systems Using Fuzzy Shannon Entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-21, June.
    11. Beccali, M. & Cellura, M. & Mistretta, M., 2003. "Decision-making in energy planning. Application of the Electre method at regional level for the diffusion of renewable energy technology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(13), pages 2063-2087.
    12. Theodor J Stewart, 2005. "Dealing with Uncertainties in MCDA," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys, chapter 0, pages 445-466, Springer.
    13. Soroudi, Alireza & Amraee, Turaj, 2013. "Decision making under uncertainty in energy systems: State of the art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 376-384.
    14. Simpson, Adam P. & Edwards, Chris F., 2013. "The utility of environmental exergy analysis for decision making in energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 742-751.
    15. Gatzert, Nadine & Kosub, Thomas, 2016. "Risks and risk management of renewable energy projects: The case of onshore and offshore wind parks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 982-998.
    16. Bhattacharya, Anindya & Kojima, Satoshi, 2012. "Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: A Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-80.
    17. Dianfa Wu & Zhiping Yang & Ningling Wang & Chengzhou Li & Yongping Yang, 2018. "An Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model and AHP Weighting Uncertainty Analysis for Sustainability Assessment of Coal-Fired Power Units," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-27, May.
    18. Thangavelu, Sundar Raj & Khambadkone, Ashwin M. & Karimi, Iftekhar A., 2015. "Long-term optimal energy mix planning towards high energy security and low GHG emission," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 959-969.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Rabe & Dalia Streimikiene & Wojciech Drożdż & Yuriy Bilan & Rafal Kasperowicz, 2020. "Sustainable regional energy planning: The case of hydro," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 1652-1662, November.
    2. Konrad Henryk Bachanek & Blanka Tundys & Tomasz Wiśniewski & Ewa Puzio & Anna Maroušková, 2021. "Intelligent Street Lighting in a Smart City Concepts—A Direction to Energy Saving in Cities: An Overview and Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Galina Panaedova & Alex Borodin & Cemal Zehir & Sergey Laptev & Andrey Kulikov, 2023. "Overview of the Russian Coal Market in the Context of Geopolitical and Economic Turbulence: The European Embargo and New Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-29, September.
    4. Katarzyna Chudy-Laskowska & Tomasz Pisula & Mirosław Liana & László Vasa, 2020. "Taxonomic Analysis of the Diversity in the Level of Wind Energy Development in European Union Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Ludovic Gaudard & Franco Romerio, 2020. "A Conceptual Framework to Classify and Manage Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: An Application to Energy Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Marcin Rabe & Dalia Streimikiene & Yuriy Bilan, 2020. "Model of Optimization of Wind Energy Production in the Light of Legal Changes in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Mihaela Simionescu & Yuriy Bilan & Emília Krajňáková & Dalia Streimikiene & Stanisław Gędek, 2019. "Renewable Energy in the Electricity Sector and GDP per Capita in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-15, June.
    8. Weisheng Deng & Lu Liu, 2019. "Comparison of Carbon Emission Reduction Modes: Impacts of Capital Constraint and Risk Aversion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-30, March.
    9. Marcin Rabe & Dalia Streimikiene & Yuriy Bilan, 2019. "EU Carbon Emissions Market Development and Its Impact on Penetration of Renewables in the Power Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Wojciech Drożdż & Grzegorz Kinelski & Marzena Czarnecka & Magdalena Wójcik-Jurkiewicz & Anna Maroušková & Grzegorz Zych, 2021. "Determinants of Decarbonization—How to Realize Sustainable and Low Carbon Cities?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, May.
    11. Wadim Strielkowski & Elena Tarkhanova & Natalia Baburina & Justas Streimikis, 2021. "Corporate Social Responsibility and the Renewable Energy Development in the Baltic States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-18, September.
    12. Krzysztof Wach & Agnieszka Głodowska & Marek Maciejewski & Marek Sieja, 2021. "Europeanization Processes of the EU Energy Policy in Visegrad Countries in the Years 2005–2018," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-23, March.
    13. Marcin Rabe & Yuriy Bilan & Katarzyna Widera & László Vasa, 2022. "Application of the Linear Programming Method in the Construction of a Mathematical Model of Optimization Distributed Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-15, March.
    14. Grzegorz Drozdowski, 2021. "Economic Calculus Qua an Instrument to Support Sustainable Development under Increasing Risk," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    2. Colla, Martin & Ioannou, Anastasia & Falcone, Gioia, 2020. "Critical review of competitiveness indicators for energy projects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Indre Siksnelyte & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Dalia Streimikiene & Deepak Sharma, 2018. "An Overview of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods in Dealing with Sustainable Energy Development Issues," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-21, October.
    4. Abreu Kang, Takanni Hannaka & da Costa Soares Júnior, Antônio Marques & de Almeida, Adiel Teixeira, 2018. "Evaluating electric power generation technologies: A multicriteria analysis based on the FITradeoff method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 10-20.
    5. Paula Donaduzzi Rigo & Graciele Rediske & Carmen Brum Rosa & Natália Gava Gastaldo & Leandro Michels & Alvaro Luiz Neuenfeldt Júnior & Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk, 2020. "Renewable Energy Problems: Exploring the Methods to Support the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, December.
    6. Sellak, Hamza & Ouhbi, Brahim & Frikh, Bouchra & Palomares, Iván, 2017. "Towards next-generation energy planning decision-making: An expert-based framework for intelligent decision support," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1544-1577.
    7. Ziemba, Paweł, 2022. "Uncertain Multi-Criteria analysis of offshore wind farms projects investments – Case study of the Polish Economic Zone of the Baltic Sea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    8. Jamal, Taskin & Urmee, Tania & Shafiullah, G.M., 2020. "Planning of off-grid power supply systems in remote areas using multi-criteria decision analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    9. Forouli, Aikaterini & Gkonis, Nikolaos & Nikas, Alexandros & Siskos, Eleftherios & Doukas, Haris & Tourkolias, Christos, 2019. "Energy efficiency promotion in Greece in light of risk: Evaluating policies as portfolio assets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 818-831.
    10. Wang, Ni & Heijnen, Petra W. & Imhof, Pieter J., 2020. "A multi-actor perspective on multi-objective regional energy system planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Sitorus, Fernando & Brito-Parada, Pablo R., 2020. "A multiple criteria decision making method to weight the sustainability criteria of renewable energy technologies under uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Turkson, Charles & Liu, Wenbin & Acquaye, Adolf, 2024. "A data envelopment analysis based evaluation of sustainable energy generation portfolio scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    13. Strantzali, Eleni & Aravossis, Konstantinos & Livanos, Georgios A., 2017. "Evaluation of future sustainable electricity generation alternatives: The case of a Greek island," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 775-787.
    14. Andrew Chapman & Timothy Fraser & Melanie Dennis, 2019. "Investigating Ties between Energy Policy and Social Equity Research: A Citation Network Analysis," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Irawan, Chandra Ade & Jones, Dylan & Hofman, Peter S. & Zhang, Lina, 2023. "Integrated strategic energy mix and energy generation planning with multiple sustainability criteria and hierarchical stakeholders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(2), pages 864-883.
    16. Cai, Yanpeng & Cai, Jianying & Xu, Linyu & Tan, Qian & Xu, Qiao, 2019. "Integrated risk analysis of water-energy nexus systems based on systems dynamics, orthogonal design and copula analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 125-137.
    17. Alkan, Ömer & Albayrak, Özlem Karadağ, 2020. "Ranking of renewable energy sources for regions in Turkey by fuzzy entropy based fuzzy COPRAS and fuzzy MULTIMOORA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 712-726.
    18. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    19. Wu, Yunna & Xu, Chuanbo & Zhang, Ting, 2018. "Evaluation of renewable power sources using a fuzzy MCDM based on cumulative prospect theory: A case in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 1227-1239.
    20. José Carlos Romero & Pedro Linares, 2021. "Multiple Criteria Decision-Making as an Operational Conceptualization of Energy Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-14, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:4:p:1018-:d:206334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.