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Estimating Temporal Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)

Author

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  • Brunella Bonaccorso

    (University of Messina)

  • Giuseppe T. Aronica

    (University of Messina)

Abstract

An intensification of extreme rainfall events have characterized several areas of peninsular and insular Italy since the early 2000s, suggesting an upward ongoing trend likely driven by climate change. In the present study temporal changes in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-h annual maxima rainfall series from more than 200 sites in Sicily region (Italy) are examined. A regional study is performed in order to reduce the uncertainty in change detection related to the limited length of the available records of extreme rainfall series. More specifically, annual maxima series are treated according to a regional flood index - type approach to frequency analysis, by assuming stationarity on a decadal time scale. First a cluster analysis using at-site characteristics is used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. Then, potential changes in regional L-moment ratios are analyzed using a 10-year moving window. Furthermore, the shapes of regional growth curves, derived by splitting the records into separate decades, are compared. In addition, a jackknife procedure is used to assess uncertainty in the fitted growth curves and to identify significant trends in quantile estimates. Results reveal that L-moment ratios show a general decreasing trend and that growth curves for the last decade (2000–2009) usually do not stand above the others, with the only exception of the ones related to the outer western part of Sicily. On the other hand, rainfall quantile estimates for the same period are the highest values almost all over the region. An explanation can be found in the increase of subregional average medians, largely caused by recent severe local storms.

Suggested Citation

  • Brunella Bonaccorso & Giuseppe T. Aronica, 2016. "Estimating Temporal Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5651-5670, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1442-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1442-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Doukhan & Patrice Bertail & Philippe Soulier, 2006. "Dependence in Probability and Statistics," Post-Print hal-00268232, HAL.
    2. Brenden Jongman & Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler & Luc Feyen & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Reinhard Mechler & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Laurens M. Bouwer & Georg Pflug & Rodrigo Rojas & Philip J. Ward, 2014. "Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 264-268, April.
    3. Leonardo Noto & Goffredo La Loggia, 2009. "Use of L-Moments Approach for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis in Sicily, Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(11), pages 2207-2229, September.
    4. Paul Doukhan & Patrice Bertail & Philippe Soulier, 2006. "Dependence in Probability and Statistics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00268232, HAL.
    5. Martin Schlather, 2003. "A dependence measure for multivariate and spatial extreme values: Properties and inference," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(1), pages 139-156, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. S. Baidya & Ajay Singh & Sudhindra N. Panda, 2020. "Flood frequency analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(3), pages 1137-1158, February.
    2. Benedetta Moccia & Elena Ridolfi & Claudio Mineo & Fabio Russo & Francesco Napolitano, 2024. "On the Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall Events Across Italy: Should We Update the Probability of Failure of Existing Hydraulic Works?," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(11), pages 4069-4082, September.
    3. Gokmen Tayfur & Bihrat Onoz & Antonino Cancelliere & Luis Garrote, 2016. "Editorial: Water Resources Management in a Changing World: Challenges and Opportunities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5553-5557, December.
    4. Vera Pecorino & T. Di Matteo & Matteo Milazzo & Luigi Pasotti & Alessandro Pluchino & Andrea Rapisarda, 2024. "Empirical analysis of hourly rainfall data in Sicily from 2002 to 2023," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 97(10), pages 1-10, October.
    5. Brunella Bonaccorso & Giuseppina Brigandì & Giuseppe T. Aronica, 2020. "Regional sub-hourly extreme rainfall estimates in Sicily under a scale invariance framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4363-4380, November.

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