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Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models

Author

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  • Thomas Chuffart

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a regime switching framework. We focus on two types of models: the Logistic Smooth Transition GARCH and the Markov-Switching GARCH models. Simulation experiments reveal that information criteria and loss functions can lead to misspecification ; BIC sometimes indicates the wrong regime switching framework. Depending on the Data Generating Process used in the experiments, great care is needed when choosing a criterion.

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  • Thomas Chuffart, 2015. "Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models," Post-Print hal-01457388, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01457388
    DOI: 10.3390/econometrics3020289
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-01457388
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    Cited by:

    1. Chuffart Thomas & Flachaire Emmanuel & Péguin-Feissolle Anne, 2018. "Testing for misspecification in the short-run component of GARCH-type models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Alipanah Sabri & Kiss Gábor Dávid, 2022. "The Impact of ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on the German Stock Market Volatility," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 25(s1), pages 17-29.
    3. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2021. "Statistical inference for mixture GARCH models with financial application," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 2615-2642, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conditional volatility; GARCH; model selection; regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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