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Enhancing Long-Term Streamflow Forecasting and Predicting using Periodicity Data Component: Application of Artificial Intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Zaher Mundher Yaseen

    (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia)

  • Ozgur Kisi

    (Canik Basari University)

  • Vahdettin Demir

    (Canik Basari University)

Abstract

Streamflow forecasting and predicting are significant concern for several applications of water resources and management including flood management, determination of river water potentials, environmental flow analysis, and agriculture and hydro-power generation. Forecasting and predicting of monthly streamflows are investigated by using three heuristic regression techniques, least square support vector regression (LSSVR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 Model Tree (M5-Tree). Data from four different stations, Besiri and Malabadi located in Turkey, Hit and Baghdad located in Iraq, are used in the analysis. Cross validation method is employed in the applications. In the first stage of the study, the heuristic regression models are compared with each other and multiple linear regression (MLR) in forecasting one month ahead streamflow of each station, individually. In the second stage, the models are evaluated and compared in predicting streamflow of one station using data of nearby station. The research investigated also the influence of the periodicity component (month number of the year) as an external sub-set in modeling long-term streamflow. In both stages, the comparison results indicate that the LSSVR model generally performs superior to the MARS, M5-Tree and MLR models. In addition, it is seen that adding periodicity as input to the models significantly increase their accuracy in forecasting and predicting monthly streamflows in both stages of the study.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaher Mundher Yaseen & Ozgur Kisi & Vahdettin Demir, 2016. "Enhancing Long-Term Streamflow Forecasting and Predicting using Periodicity Data Component: Application of Artificial Intelligence," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(12), pages 4125-4151, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1408-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1408-5
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    3. Zhennan Liu & Qiongfang Li & Jingnan Zhou & Weiguo Jiao & Xiaoyu Wang, 2021. "Runoff Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid ANFIS Model Based on Variable Screening," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(9), pages 2921-2940, July.
    4. A. B. Dariane & M. Farhani & Sh Azimi, 2018. "Long Term Streamflow Forecasting Using a Hybrid Entropy Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1439-1451, March.
    5. Tao, Hai & Diop, Lamine & Bodian, Ansoumana & Djaman, Koffi & Ndiaye, Papa Malick & Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, 2018. "Reference evapotranspiration prediction using hybridized fuzzy model with firefly algorithm: Regional case study in Burkina Faso," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 140-151.
    6. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Andrea Petroselli & Salim Heddam & Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos & Ozgur Kisi, 2021. "Comparison of different methodologies for rainfall–runoff modeling: machine learning vs conceptual approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2987-3011, February.
    7. Maryam Rahimzad & Alireza Moghaddam Nia & Hosam Zolfonoon & Jaber Soltani & Ali Danandeh Mehr & Hyun-Han Kwon, 2021. "Performance Comparison of an LSTM-based Deep Learning Model versus Conventional Machine Learning Algorithms for Streamflow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4167-4187, September.
    8. Hui Hu & Jianfeng Zhang & Tao Li, 2021. "A Novel Hybrid Decompose-Ensemble Strategy with a VMD-BPNN Approach for Daily Streamflow Estimating," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(15), pages 5119-5138, December.
    9. Kisi, Ozgur & Heddam, Salim & Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, 2019. "The implementation of univariable scheme-based air temperature for solar radiation prediction: New development of dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 184-195.
    10. Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2020. "Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1571-1606, August.
    11. Babak Mohammadi & Farshad Ahmadi & Saeid Mehdizadeh & Yiqing Guan & Quoc Bao Pham & Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh & Doan Quang Tri, 2020. "Developing Novel Robust Models to Improve the Accuracy of Daily Streamflow Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(10), pages 3387-3409, August.
    12. Sungwon Kim & Meysam Alizamir & Nam Won Kim & Ozgur Kisi, 2020. "Bayesian Model Averaging: A Unique Model Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy for Daily Streamflow Based on Different Antecedent Time Series," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Xinxin He & Jungang Luo & Peng Li & Ganggang Zuo & Jiancang Xie, 2020. "A Hybrid Model Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Gradient Boosting Regression Tree for Monthly Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 865-884, January.

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