Quantifying a Sustainable Management Space for Human Use of Coastal Groundwater under Multiple Change Pressures

In the densely populated coastal regions of the world, loss of groundwater due to seawater intrusion, driven by changes of climate, sea level, land use and water use, may critically impact many people. We analytically investigate and quantify the limits constraining a coastal aquifer’s sustainable management space, in order to avoid critical loss of the coastal groundwater resource by seawater intrusion. Limiting conditions occur when the intrusion toe reaches the pumping wells, well intrusion, or the marine-side groundwater divide, complete intrusion; in both cases the limits are functions of the seaward groundwater flow remaining after the human groundwater extractions. The study presents a screening-level approach to the quantification of the key natural and human-determined controls and sustainability limits for the human use of coastal groundwater. The physical and geometrical characteristics of the coastal aquifer along with the natural conditions for recharge and replenishment of the coastal groundwater are the key natural controls of the sustainable management space for the latter. The groundwater pumping rates and locations are the key human-determined controls of this space. The present approach to combining and accounting for both of these types of controls is simple, yet general. The approach is applicable across different scales and regions, and for historic, current and projected future conditions of changing hydro-climate, sea level, and human freshwater use. The use of this approach is also concretely demonstrated for the natural and human-determined controls and limits of the sustainable management space for two specific Mediterranean aquifers.