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Definition of Risk Indicators for Reservoirs Management Optimization

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  • Giuseppe Rossi
  • Enrica Caporali
  • Luis Garrote

Abstract

An alternative procedure for drought risk assessment and for the mitigation of drought risk is proposed in the paper. An analysis of the relationship between failure of water supply systems and reservoir volumes for the urban area of Firenze in central Tuscany, in central Italy, is performed. Long term simulations are carried out using the software package WEAP. A simplified model of the water resources system is built to assess the threshold values and the management rules. The probability to have definite degree of shortage in the water supply system is evaluated in function of the volume stored in the reservoir at the beginning of the month with Monte Carlo simulations. The reservoir levels and volumes are simulated using time series of the period 1970–2005. Four scenarios (i.e. normal, pre-alert, alert and emergency) associated with different levels of severity of drought are defined. Threshold values are identified considering the probability to assure a given fraction of the demand in a certain time horizon, and are calibrated with an optimization method, which try to minimize the water shortages, especially the heavier. The critical situations are assessed month by month in order to evaluate optimal management rules during the year and avoid conditions of total water shortage. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Rossi & Enrica Caporali & Luis Garrote, 2012. "Definition of Risk Indicators for Reservoirs Management Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(4), pages 981-996, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:4:p:981-996
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9842-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Francisco Flores & Marta Moneo, 2007. "Challenges to Manage the Risk of Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Mediterranean," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 775-788, May.
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    1. David Haro & Abel Solera & Javier Paredes & Joaquín Andreu, 2014. "Methodology for Drought Risk Assessment in Within-year Regulated Reservoir Systems. Application to the Orbigo River System (Spain)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3801-3814, September.
    2. E. Preziosi & A. Bon & E. Romano & A. Petrangeli & S. Casadei, 2013. "Vulnerability to Drought of a Complex Water Supply System. The Upper Tiber Basin Case Study (Central Italy)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(13), pages 4655-4678, October.
    3. Claudia Carvalho-Santos & António T. Monteiro & João C. Azevedo & João Pradinho Honrado & João Pedro Nunes, 2017. "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Reservoir Management: Uncertainty and Adaptation for a Mountain Catchment in Northeast Portugal," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3355-3370, September.
    4. Wouter Buytaert & Jan Friesen & Jens Liebe & Ralf Ludwig, 2012. "Assessment and Management of Water Resources in Developing, Semi-arid and Arid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(4), pages 841-844, March.
    5. Alex Avilés & Abel Solera Solera & Javier Paredes-Arquiola & María Pedro-Monzonís, 2018. "Integrated Methodological Framework for Assessing the Risk of Failure in Water Supply Incorporating Drought Forecasts. Case Study: Andean Regulated River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1209-1223, March.
    6. Shu Chen & Dongguo Shao & Xudong Li & Caixiu Lei, 2016. "Simulation-Optimization Modeling of Conjunctive Operation of Reservoirs and Ponds for Irrigation of Multiple Crops Using an Improved Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 2887-2905, July.
    7. Luis Garrote & Alfredo Granados & Mike Spiliotis & Francisco Martin-Carrasco, 2023. "Effectiveness of Adaptive Operating Rules for Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2527-2542, May.
    8. Mike Spiliotis & Luis Mediero & Luis Garrote, 2016. "Optimization of Hedging Rules for Reservoir Operation During Droughts Based on Particle Swarm Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5759-5778, December.

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