IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v27y2013i6p1675-1692.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Large Scale Probabilistic Drought Characterization Over Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Brunella Bonaccorso
  • David Peres
  • Antonino Cancelliere
  • Giuseppe Rossi

Abstract

A reliable assessment of drought return periods is essential to help decision makers in setting effective drought preparedness and mitigation measures. However, often an inferential approach is unsuitable to model the marginal or joint probability distributions of drought characteristics, such as drought duration and accumulated deficit, due to the relatively limited number of drought events that can be observed in the historical records of the hydrological variables of interest. As an alternative, the marginal and multivariate probability cdf’s of drought characteristics can be derived as functions of the parameters of the cdf of the underlying variable (e.g. precipitation), whose sample series is usually long enough to obtain trustworthy estimates in a statistical sense. In this study, the latter methodology is applied to investigate space-time variability of drought occurrences over Europe by using the CRU TS3.10.01 precipitation dataset for the period 1901–2009. In particular, a methodology able to take into account autocorrelation in the underlying precipitation series is adopted. First, a spatial analysis of historical droughts at European level is carried out. Then, the joint probability distributions of drought duration and accumulated deficit are derived for each cell, with reference to both historical and design drought events. Finally, the corresponding bivariate drought return periods are computed, as the expected values of the interarrival time between consecutive critical droughts.Results show that several heavy drought episodes have widely affected the continent. Among the most recent events, drought occurred during the period 1985–1995 was the worst in terms of extent of the regions characterized by return periods greater than 250 years. Besides Euro-Mediterranean regions, North Western and Central Eastern regions appear more drought prone than the rest of Europe, in terms of low values of return periods. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Brunella Bonaccorso & David Peres & Antonino Cancelliere & Giuseppe Rossi, 2013. "Large Scale Probabilistic Drought Characterization Over Europe," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(6), pages 1675-1692, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:6:p:1675-1692
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0177-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-012-0177-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-012-0177-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brunella Bonaccorso & David Peres & Antonio Castano & Antonino Cancelliere, 2015. "SPI-Based Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Areal Extent in Sicily," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 459-470, January.
    2. Paweł Bogawski & Ewa Bednorz, 2016. "Atmospheric conditions controlling extreme summertime evapotranspiration in Poland (central Europe)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 55-69, March.
    3. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Shiqing Wu, 2021. "Quantification of drought severity change in Ethiopia during 1952–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5096-5121, April.
    4. G. Buttafuoco & T. Caloiero & R. Coscarelli, 2015. "Analyses of Drought Events in Calabria (Southern Italy) Using Standardized Precipitation Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 557-573, January.
    5. Paweł Bogawski & Ewa Bednorz, 2014. "Comparison and Validation of Selected Evapotranspiration Models for Conditions in Poland (Central Europe)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5021-5038, November.
    6. Xianxian Leng & Xiaogang Liu & Yanli Gao & Yujie Liu & Qiliang Yang & Guangzhao Sun & Youliang Peng & Yifeng Huang, 2020. "Drought assessment of southwestern China based on HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 307-334, May.
    7. Tayeb Raziei & Diogo Martins & Isabella Bordi & João Santos & Maria Portela & Luis Pereira & Alfonso Sutera, 2015. "SPI Modes of Drought Spatial and Temporal Variability in Portugal: Comparing Observations, PT02 and GPCC Gridded Datasets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 487-504, January.
    8. Paweł Bogawski & Ewa Bednorz, 2016. "Atmospheric conditions controlling extreme summertime evapotranspiration in Poland (central Europe)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 55-69, March.
    9. E. Preziosi & A. Bon & E. Romano & A. Petrangeli & S. Casadei, 2013. "Vulnerability to Drought of a Complex Water Supply System. The Upper Tiber Basin Case Study (Central Italy)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(13), pages 4655-4678, October.
    10. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2016. "Parametric and Non-Parametric Trend of Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Using RDI Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5479-5500, November.
    11. Antonino Cancelliere, 2017. "Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3097-3110, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ming Li & Guiwen Wang & Shengwei Zong & Xurong Chai, 2023. "Copula-Based Assessment and Regionalization of Drought Risk in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Ziqiang Xing & Denghua Yan & Cheng Zhang & Gang Wang & Dongdong Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3291-3304, July.
    3. F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi & L. Vergni, 2013. "Severity–duration–frequency curves in the mitigation of drought impact: an agricultural case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1863-1881, February.
    4. Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul, 2022. "The Risk of Extreme Streamflow Drought in the Polish Carpathians—A Two-Dimensional Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-27, October.
    5. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    6. Zahra Sadat Hosseini & Mahnoosh Moghaddasi & Shahla Paimozd, 2023. "Simultaneous Monitoring of Different Drought Types Using Linear and Nonlinear Combination Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1125-1151, February.
    7. Jie Yang & Yimin Wang & Jun Yao & Jianxia Chang & Guoxin Xu & Xin Wang & Hui Hu, 2020. "Coincidence probability analysis of hydrologic low-flow under the changing environment in the Wei River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1711-1726, September.
    8. Lamneithem Hangshing & Parmendra P. Dabral, 2018. "Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1741-1758, March.
    9. Rina Wu & Jiquan Zhang & Yuhai Bao & Enliang Guo, 2019. "Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    10. Xiong-Fei Liu & Shi-Xin Wang & Yi Zhou & Fu-Tao Wang & Guang Yang & Wen-Liang Liu, 2016. "Spatial analysis of meteorological drought return periods in China using Copulas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 367-388, January.
    11. Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    12. Ying Li & Wei Gu & Weijia Cui & Zhiyun Chang & Yingjun Xu, 2015. "Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1289-1303, June.
    13. Otero, Noelia & Martius, Olivia & Allen, Sam & Bloomfield, Hannah & Schaefli, Bettina, 2022. "A copula-based assessment of renewable energy droughts across Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 667-677.
    14. Panagiota Galiatsatou & Christos Makris & Panayotis Prinos & Dimitrios Kokkinos, 2019. "Nonstationary joint probability analysis of extreme marine variables to assess design water levels at the shoreline in a changing climate," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 1051-1089, September.
    15. Xike Guan & Zengchuan Dong & Yun Luo & Dunyu Zhong, 2021. "Multi-Objective Optimal Allocation of River Basin Water Resources under Full Probability Scenarios Considering Wet–Dry Encounters: A Case Study of Yellow River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Saralees Nadarajah, 2009. "A bivariate distribution with gamma and beta marginals with application to drought data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 277-301.
    17. Jinping Zhang & Hang Zhang & Hongyuan Fang, 2022. "Study on Urban Rainstorms Design Based on Multivariate Secondary Return Period," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2293-2307, May.
    18. Olusola O. Ayantobo & Yi Li & Songbai Song, 2019. "Multivariate Drought Frequency Analysis using Four-Variate Symmetric and Asymmetric Archimedean Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 103-127, January.
    19. T. Sharma & U. Panu, 2014. "A Simplified Model for Predicting Drought Magnitudes: a Case of Streamflow Droughts in Canadian Prairies," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1597-1611, April.
    20. L. Vergni & F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi, 2015. "Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2819-2835, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:6:p:1675-1692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.