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Large Scale Probabilistic Drought Characterization Over Europe

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  • Brunella Bonaccorso
  • David Peres
  • Antonino Cancelliere
  • Giuseppe Rossi

Abstract

A reliable assessment of drought return periods is essential to help decision makers in setting effective drought preparedness and mitigation measures. However, often an inferential approach is unsuitable to model the marginal or joint probability distributions of drought characteristics, such as drought duration and accumulated deficit, due to the relatively limited number of drought events that can be observed in the historical records of the hydrological variables of interest. As an alternative, the marginal and multivariate probability cdf’s of drought characteristics can be derived as functions of the parameters of the cdf of the underlying variable (e.g. precipitation), whose sample series is usually long enough to obtain trustworthy estimates in a statistical sense. In this study, the latter methodology is applied to investigate space-time variability of drought occurrences over Europe by using the CRU TS3.10.01 precipitation dataset for the period 1901–2009. In particular, a methodology able to take into account autocorrelation in the underlying precipitation series is adopted. First, a spatial analysis of historical droughts at European level is carried out. Then, the joint probability distributions of drought duration and accumulated deficit are derived for each cell, with reference to both historical and design drought events. Finally, the corresponding bivariate drought return periods are computed, as the expected values of the interarrival time between consecutive critical droughts.Results show that several heavy drought episodes have widely affected the continent. Among the most recent events, drought occurred during the period 1985–1995 was the worst in terms of extent of the regions characterized by return periods greater than 250 years. Besides Euro-Mediterranean regions, North Western and Central Eastern regions appear more drought prone than the rest of Europe, in terms of low values of return periods. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Brunella Bonaccorso & David Peres & Antonino Cancelliere & Giuseppe Rossi, 2013. "Large Scale Probabilistic Drought Characterization Over Europe," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(6), pages 1675-1692, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:6:p:1675-1692
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0177-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
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    1. Tayeb Raziei & Diogo Martins & Isabella Bordi & João Santos & Maria Portela & Luis Pereira & Alfonso Sutera, 2015. "SPI Modes of Drought Spatial and Temporal Variability in Portugal: Comparing Observations, PT02 and GPCC Gridded Datasets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 487-504, January.
    2. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Shiqing Wu, 2021. "Quantification of drought severity change in Ethiopia during 1952–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5096-5121, April.
    3. Paweł Bogawski & Ewa Bednorz, 2016. "Atmospheric conditions controlling extreme summertime evapotranspiration in Poland (central Europe)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 55-69, March.
    4. Brunella Bonaccorso & David Peres & Antonio Castano & Antonino Cancelliere, 2015. "SPI-Based Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Areal Extent in Sicily," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 459-470, January.
    5. Paweł Bogawski & Ewa Bednorz, 2016. "Atmospheric conditions controlling extreme summertime evapotranspiration in Poland (central Europe)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 55-69, March.
    6. E. Preziosi & A. Bon & E. Romano & A. Petrangeli & S. Casadei, 2013. "Vulnerability to Drought of a Complex Water Supply System. The Upper Tiber Basin Case Study (Central Italy)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(13), pages 4655-4678, October.
    7. G. Buttafuoco & T. Caloiero & R. Coscarelli, 2015. "Analyses of Drought Events in Calabria (Southern Italy) Using Standardized Precipitation Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 557-573, January.
    8. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2016. "Parametric and Non-Parametric Trend of Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Using RDI Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5479-5500, November.
    9. Xianxian Leng & Xiaogang Liu & Yanli Gao & Yujie Liu & Qiliang Yang & Guangzhao Sun & Youliang Peng & Yifeng Huang, 2020. "Drought assessment of southwestern China based on HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 307-334, May.
    10. Paweł Bogawski & Ewa Bednorz, 2014. "Comparison and Validation of Selected Evapotranspiration Models for Conditions in Poland (Central Europe)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5021-5038, November.
    11. Antonino Cancelliere, 2017. "Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3097-3110, August.

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