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Future Water Supply and Demand in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia: A Scenario-Based Analysis of Multiple, Interacting Stressors

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  • Kirsten Harma
  • Mark Johnson
  • Stewart Cohen

Abstract

Surface water is critical for meeting water needs in British Columbia’s Okanagan Basin, but the timing and magnitude of its availability is being altered through climate and land use changes and growing water demand. Greater attention needs to be given to the multiple, interacting factors occurring and projected to occur in this region if water is going to be sustainably provisioned to human users and available for ecosystem needs. This study contributes to that goal by integrating information on physical, biological and social processes in order to project a range of possible changes to surface water availability resulting from land-use, climatic and demographic change, as well as from Mountain Pine Beetle infestation. An integrated water management model (Water Evaluation and Planning system, WEAP) was used to consider future scenarios for water supply and demand in both unregulated and reservoir-supported streams that supply the District of Peachland. Results demonstrate that anticipated future climate conditions will critically reduce streamflow relative to projected uses (societal demand and ecological flow requirements). The surficial storage systems currently in place were found unable to meet municipal and instream flow needs during “normal” precipitation years by the 2050s. Improvements may be found through demand reduction, especially in the near term. Beyond the implications for the District of Peachland, this work demonstrates a method of using an accessible modeling tool for integrating knowledge from the fields of climate science, forest hydrology, water systems management and stream ecology to aid in water and land management decision-making. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsten Harma & Mark Johnson & Stewart Cohen, 2012. "Future Water Supply and Demand in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia: A Scenario-Based Analysis of Multiple, Interacting Stressors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(3), pages 667-689, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:3:p:667-689
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9938-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julia Hall & Conor Murphy, 2010. "Vulnerability Analysis of Future Public Water Supply Under Changing Climate Conditions: A Study of the Moy Catchment, Western Ireland," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3527-3545, October.
    2. Jeniffer Mutiga & Shadrack Mavengano & Su Zhongbo & Tsehaie Woldai & Robert Becht, 2010. "Water Allocation as a Planning Tool to Minimise Water Use Conflicts in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro North Basin, Kenya," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3939-3959, November.
    3. Baris Yilmaz & Nilgun Harmancioglu, 2010. "An Indicator Based Assessment for Water Resources Management in Gediz River Basin, Turkey," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(15), pages 4359-4379, December.
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    1. Parisa Ashofteh & Omid Bozorg Haddad & Miguel Mariño, 2013. "Scenario Assessment of Streamflow Simulation and its Transition Probability in Future Periods Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 255-274, January.
    2. Matthew Deitch & Adina Merenlender & Shane Feirer, 2013. "Cumulative Effects of Small Reservoirs on Streamflow in Northern Coastal California Catchments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5101-5118, December.
    3. Ajay Gajanan Bhave & Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Narendra Singh Raghuwanshi, 2016. "Integrated Assessment of no-Regret Climate Change Adaptation Options for Reservoir Catchment and Command Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1001-1018, February.
    4. Steven A. Conrad & Murray B. Rutherford & Wolfgang Haider, 2017. "Profiling Farmers’ Preferences about Drought Response Policies Using a Choice Experiment in the Okanagan Basin, Canada," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2837-2851, July.
    5. Shaochun Huang & Valentina Krysanova & Jianqing Zhai & Buda Su, 2015. "Impact of Intensive Irrigation Activities on River Discharge Under Agricultural Scenarios in the Semi-Arid Aksu River Basin, Northwest China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 945-959, February.
    6. Bhave, Ajay Gajanan & Mittal, Neha & Mishra, Ashok & Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh, 2016. "Integrated assessment of no-regret climate change adaptation options for reservoir catchment and command areas," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65133, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. N. Graveline & B. Aunay & J. Fusillier & J. Rinaudo, 2014. "Coping with Urban & Agriculture Water Demand Uncertainty in Water Management Plan Design: the Interest of Participatory Scenario Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3075-3093, August.

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