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Risk Evaluation of Water Shortage in Source Area of Middle Route Project for South-to-North Water Transfer in China

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  • Wenquan Gu
  • Dongguo Shao
  • Yufang Jiang

Abstract

Water diversion causes changes in the downstream flow regime, which may intensify the crisis of water shortage. The effect of the diversion on water shortage depends on the volumes of water transferred and water demand of source area, the upstream inflow and the way the reservoir is operated. This paper reports the findings of a study to assess the impact of water diversion from Danjiangkou reservoir on middle and lower Hanjiang River, part of the source area of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, China. The risk evaluation model consists of four parts, including inflow generation, water demand, simulation, and performance evaluation. Thomas–Fiering model and Mont-Carlo method are utilized to simulate monthly reservoir inflow data and a 12-dimensional random vector is used to describe the 12-month water demand in middle and lower Hanjiang River. A reservoir simulation model is established for optimum operation of Danjiangkou reservoir. Several scenarios including different water diversion scales are run by the risk evaluation model, whose outputs provide valuable information for decision making. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Wenquan Gu & Dongguo Shao & Yufang Jiang, 2012. "Risk Evaluation of Water Shortage in Source Area of Middle Route Project for South-to-North Water Transfer in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3479-3493, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:12:p:3479-3493
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0086-1
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    2. Shawei He & Keith Hipel & D. Kilgour, 2014. "Water Diversion Conflicts in China: A Hierarchical Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1823-1837, May.
    3. Maxwell C. Wilson & Xiao-Yan Li & Yu-Jun Ma & Andrew T. Smith & Jianguo Wu, 2017. "A Review of the Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of China’s South–North Water Transfer Project: A Sustainability Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-11, August.
    4. Mengjing Guo & Tiegang Zhang & Jing Li & Zhanbin Li & Guoce Xu & Rui Yang, 2019. "Reducing Nitrogen and Phosphorus Losses from Different Crop Types in the Water Source Area of the Danjiang River, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Zhe Cheng & Yuntong Zhao & Tao Song & Le Cheng & Wenbin Wang, 2023. "White Elephant or Golden Goose? An Assessment of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project from the Perspective of Regional Water Use Efficiency," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 819-834, January.
    6. Liang Zhang & Sisi Li & Hugo A. Loáiciga & Yanhua Zhuang & Yun Du, 2015. "Opportunities and challenges of interbasin water transfers: a literature review with bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(1), pages 279-294, October.
    7. Wenyi Du & Yubing Fan & Xiaowo Tang, 2016. "Two-part pricing contracts under competition: the South-to-North Water Transfer Project supply chain system in China," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 895-911, November.
    8. Xiaodan Zhang & Guoyu Ren & He Bing & Takehiko Mikami & Jun Matsumoto & Panfeng Zhang & Guowei Yang, 2023. "Reconstruction and characterization of droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin, China, 1426–2017," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-21, May.
    9. Claudio Arena & Marcella Cannarozzo & Mario Mazzola, 2014. "Screening Investments to Reduce the Risk of Hydrologic Failures in the Headwork System Supplying Apulia (Italy) – Role of Economic Evaluation and Operation Hydrology," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1251-1275, March.
    10. Xia, Rui & Zou, Lei & Zhang, Yuan & Zhang, Yongyong & Chen, Yan & Liu, Chengjian & Yang, Zhongwen & Ma, Shuqin, 2022. "Algal bloom prediction influenced by the Water Transfer Project in the Middle-lower Hanjiang River," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 463(C).
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    12. Qian Zhang & Xiujuan Liang & Zhang Fang & Tao Jiang & Yubo Wang & Lei Wang, 2016. "Urban water resources allocation and shortage risk mapping with support vector machine method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1209-1228, March.
    13. Changwen Li & Ling Kang, 2014. "A New Modified Tennant Method with Spatial-Temporal Variability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 4911-4926, November.
    14. Ziheng Feng & Liying Sun, 2024. "Water Conservation Implications Based on Tempo-Spatial Characteristics of Water Footprint in the Water-Receiving Areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Đurica Marković & Jasna Plavšić & Nesa Ilich & Siniša Ilić, 2015. "Non-parametric Stochastic Generation of Streamflow Series at Multiple Locations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4787-4801, October.
    16. Dongguo Shao & Zhuomin Wang & Bei Wang & Weiwei Luo, 2016. "A Water Quality Model with Three Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation for Contaminant Transport," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4501-4512, October.
    17. Qian Zhang & Xiujuan Liang & Zhang Fang & Tao Jiang & Yubo Wang & Lei Wang, 2016. "Urban water resources allocation and shortage risk mapping with support vector machine method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1209-1228, March.
    18. Yubing Wang & Kai Zhu & Xiao Xiong & Jianuo Yin & Haoran Yan & Yuan Zhang & Hai Liu, 2022. "Assessment of the Ecological Compensation Standards for Cross-Basin Water Diversion Projects from the Perspective of Main Headwater and Receiver Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-31, December.
    19. Li, Mo & Guo, Ping & Singh, Vijay P. & Yang, Gaiqiang, 2016. "An uncertainty-based framework for agricultural water-land resources allocation and risk evaluation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 10-23.
    20. Bin Liu & Huajian Fang & Xiaosheng Qin & Feilian Zhang & Jingjing Li, 2023. "An integrated multi‐criteria analysis framework of built reservoir with dam‐heightening‐based decision: China's largest water transfer programs for sustainable development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 540-554, February.
    21. Jing Tian & Dedi Liu & Shenglian Guo & Zhengke Pan & Xingjun Hong, 2019. "Impacts of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects on Optimal Water Resources Allocation in the Hanjiang River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, April.

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