IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v26y2012i12p3479-3493.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Evaluation of Water Shortage in Source Area of Middle Route Project for South-to-North Water Transfer in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wenquan Gu
  • Dongguo Shao
  • Yufang Jiang

Abstract

Water diversion causes changes in the downstream flow regime, which may intensify the crisis of water shortage. The effect of the diversion on water shortage depends on the volumes of water transferred and water demand of source area, the upstream inflow and the way the reservoir is operated. This paper reports the findings of a study to assess the impact of water diversion from Danjiangkou reservoir on middle and lower Hanjiang River, part of the source area of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, China. The risk evaluation model consists of four parts, including inflow generation, water demand, simulation, and performance evaluation. Thomas–Fiering model and Mont-Carlo method are utilized to simulate monthly reservoir inflow data and a 12-dimensional random vector is used to describe the 12-month water demand in middle and lower Hanjiang River. A reservoir simulation model is established for optimum operation of Danjiangkou reservoir. Several scenarios including different water diversion scales are run by the risk evaluation model, whose outputs provide valuable information for decision making. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Wenquan Gu & Dongguo Shao & Yufang Jiang, 2012. "Risk Evaluation of Water Shortage in Source Area of Middle Route Project for South-to-North Water Transfer in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3479-3493, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:12:p:3479-3493
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0086-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-012-0086-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-012-0086-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Shiau, 2003. "Water Release Policy Effects on the Shortage Characteristics for the Shihmen Reservoir System during Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(6), pages 463-480, December.
    2. Mohammad Mondal & Jahir Chowdhury & Md. Ferdous, 2010. "Risk-Based Evaluation for Meeting Future Water Demand of the Brahmaputra Floodplain Within Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(5), pages 853-869, March.
    3. Vijverberg, Wim P. M., 1997. "Monte Carlo evaluation of multivariate normal probabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 281-307.
    4. B. Srdjevic & Y. Medeiros & A. Faria, 2004. "An Objective Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Water Management Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(1), pages 35-54, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aihong Fu & Yi Wang & Zhaoxia Ye, 2020. "Quantitative Determination of Some Parameters in the Tennant Method and Its Application to Sustainability: A Case Study of the Yarkand River, Xinjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.
    2. Shawei He & Keith Hipel & D. Kilgour, 2014. "Water Diversion Conflicts in China: A Hierarchical Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1823-1837, May.
    3. Maxwell C. Wilson & Xiao-Yan Li & Yu-Jun Ma & Andrew T. Smith & Jianguo Wu, 2017. "A Review of the Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of China’s South–North Water Transfer Project: A Sustainability Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-11, August.
    4. Mengjing Guo & Tiegang Zhang & Jing Li & Zhanbin Li & Guoce Xu & Rui Yang, 2019. "Reducing Nitrogen and Phosphorus Losses from Different Crop Types in the Water Source Area of the Danjiang River, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Zhe Cheng & Yuntong Zhao & Tao Song & Le Cheng & Wenbin Wang, 2023. "White Elephant or Golden Goose? An Assessment of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project from the Perspective of Regional Water Use Efficiency," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 819-834, January.
    6. Liang Zhang & Sisi Li & Hugo A. Loáiciga & Yanhua Zhuang & Yun Du, 2015. "Opportunities and challenges of interbasin water transfers: a literature review with bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(1), pages 279-294, October.
    7. Wenyi Du & Yubing Fan & Xiaowo Tang, 2016. "Two-part pricing contracts under competition: the South-to-North Water Transfer Project supply chain system in China," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 895-911, November.
    8. Xiaodan Zhang & Guoyu Ren & He Bing & Takehiko Mikami & Jun Matsumoto & Panfeng Zhang & Guowei Yang, 2023. "Reconstruction and characterization of droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin, China, 1426–2017," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-21, May.
    9. Claudio Arena & Marcella Cannarozzo & Mario Mazzola, 2014. "Screening Investments to Reduce the Risk of Hydrologic Failures in the Headwork System Supplying Apulia (Italy) – Role of Economic Evaluation and Operation Hydrology," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1251-1275, March.
    10. Xia, Rui & Zou, Lei & Zhang, Yuan & Zhang, Yongyong & Chen, Yan & Liu, Chengjian & Yang, Zhongwen & Ma, Shuqin, 2022. "Algal bloom prediction influenced by the Water Transfer Project in the Middle-lower Hanjiang River," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 463(C).
    11. Longxia Qian & Hongrui Wang & Keni Zhang, 2014. "Evaluation Criteria and Model for Risk Between Water Supply and Water Demand and its Application in Beijing," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4433-4447, October.
    12. Qian Zhang & Xiujuan Liang & Zhang Fang & Tao Jiang & Yubo Wang & Lei Wang, 2016. "Urban water resources allocation and shortage risk mapping with support vector machine method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1209-1228, March.
    13. Changwen Li & Ling Kang, 2014. "A New Modified Tennant Method with Spatial-Temporal Variability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 4911-4926, November.
    14. Ziheng Feng & Liying Sun, 2024. "Water Conservation Implications Based on Tempo-Spatial Characteristics of Water Footprint in the Water-Receiving Areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Đurica Marković & Jasna Plavšić & Nesa Ilich & Siniša Ilić, 2015. "Non-parametric Stochastic Generation of Streamflow Series at Multiple Locations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4787-4801, October.
    16. Dongguo Shao & Zhuomin Wang & Bei Wang & Weiwei Luo, 2016. "A Water Quality Model with Three Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation for Contaminant Transport," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4501-4512, October.
    17. Qian Zhang & Xiujuan Liang & Zhang Fang & Tao Jiang & Yubo Wang & Lei Wang, 2016. "Urban water resources allocation and shortage risk mapping with support vector machine method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1209-1228, March.
    18. Yubing Wang & Kai Zhu & Xiao Xiong & Jianuo Yin & Haoran Yan & Yuan Zhang & Hai Liu, 2022. "Assessment of the Ecological Compensation Standards for Cross-Basin Water Diversion Projects from the Perspective of Main Headwater and Receiver Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-31, December.
    19. Li, Mo & Guo, Ping & Singh, Vijay P. & Yang, Gaiqiang, 2016. "An uncertainty-based framework for agricultural water-land resources allocation and risk evaluation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 10-23.
    20. Bin Liu & Huajian Fang & Xiaosheng Qin & Feilian Zhang & Jingjing Li, 2023. "An integrated multi‐criteria analysis framework of built reservoir with dam‐heightening‐based decision: China's largest water transfer programs for sustainable development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 540-554, February.
    21. Jing Tian & Dedi Liu & Shenglian Guo & Zhengke Pan & Xingjun Hong, 2019. "Impacts of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects on Optimal Water Resources Allocation in the Hanjiang River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erik Plug & Wim Vijverberg, 2003. "Schooling, Family Background, and Adoption: Is It Nature or Is It Nurture?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 611-641, June.
    2. Haoying Wang & Guohui Wu, 2022. "Modeling discrete choices with large fine-scale spatial data: opportunities and challenges," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 325-351, July.
    3. Rebecca Page & Lisa Dilling, 2020. "How experiences of climate extremes motivate adaptation among water managers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 499-516, August.
    4. Ziegler, Andreas, 2002. "Simulated Classical Tests in the Multiperiod Multinomial Probit Model," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-38, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Mónica de Castro-Pardo & Pascual Fernández Martínez & Amelia Pérez Zabaleta & João C. Azevedo, 2021. "Dealing with Water Conflicts: A Comprehensive Review of MCDM Approaches to Manage Freshwater Ecosystem Services," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-32, April.
    6. Hajkowicz, Stefan & Higgins, Andrew, 2008. "A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 255-265, January.
    7. Serafim Opricovic, 2009. "A Compromise Solution in Water Resources Planning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(8), pages 1549-1561, June.
    8. Rocine Carvalho & Alessandra Magrini, 2006. "Conflicts over Water Resource Management in Brazil: A Case Study of Inter-Basin Transfers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(2), pages 193-213, April.
    9. Vandermeulen, V. & Van Huylenbroeck, G., 2008. "Designing trans-disciplinary research to support policy formulation for sustainable agricultural development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 352-361, October.
    10. Xiang Zeng & Tiesong Hu & Xuning Guo & Xinjie Li, 2014. "Water Transfer Triggering Mechanism for Multi-Reservoir Operation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1293-1308, March.
    11. Ahamd Radmehr & Shahab Araghinejad, 2015. "Flood Vulnerability Analysis by Fuzzy Spatial Multi Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4427-4445, September.
    12. Z. I. Botev, 2017. "The normal law under linear restrictions: simulation and estimation via minimax tilting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(1), pages 125-148, January.
    13. Łatuszyńska Anna, 2014. "Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis Using Topsis Method For Interval Data In Research Into The Level Of Information Society Development," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 63-76, July.
    14. Cem P. Cetinkaya & Mert Can Gunacti, 2018. "Multi-Criteria Analysis of Water Allocation Scenarios in a Water Scarce Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2867-2884, June.
    15. José Ribas, 2014. "An Assessment of Conflicting Intentions in the Use of Multipurpose Water Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3989-4000, September.
    16. Jie Huang & Zimin Sun & Minzhe Du, 2022. "Differences and Drivers of Urban Resilience in Eight Major Urban Agglomerations: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, September.
    17. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Yen-Ning Hung & Huei-Er Sie, 2018. "Effects of Hedging Factors and Fuzziness on Shortage Characteristics During Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1913-1929, March.
    18. Ziegler, Andreas, 2001. "Simulated z-tests in multinomial probit models," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-53, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Raoof Mostafazadeh & Amir Sadoddin & Abdolreza Bahremand & Vahed Berdi Sheikh & Arash Zare Garizi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of flood control structures using a multi-criteria decision-making technique in Northeast Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1827-1846, July.
    20. Zsolt Sandor, 2009. "Multinomial discrete choice models (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 7, pages 9-19, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:12:p:3479-3493. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.