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Investigation of the Behavior of an Agricultural-Operated Dam Reservoir Under RCP Scenarios of AR5-IPCC

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  • Umut Okkan

    (Balikesir University)

  • Umut Kirdemir

    (Balikesir University)

Abstract

In regions where the Mediterranean climate prevails, the agricultural sector and agricultural-operated dam reservoirs are threatened by climate change. In this respect, the prediction of hydro-meteorological changes that may occur in surface water resources under climate change scenarios is essential to examine the sustainability of reservoirs. In this paper, Demirköprü reservoir in the Gediz Basin/Turkey, a reservoir operated for irrigation purposes, was analyzed against the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios specified in the AR5 report of the IPCC. Projection period was evaluated as 2016-2050 water year period. First, statistical downscaling, Bayesian model averaging and quantile delta mapping bias correction techniques were respectively applied to monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperatures of meteorological stations in the region using 12 GCMs. According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, negligible reductions in precipitation are foreseen, while significant increases of 1.3 and 1.8 °C, respectively, are projected for temperatures under the same scenarios. Following the calibration of rainfall-runoff models for the sub-basins feeding the reservoir, streamflow simulations were also performed with projected precipitation and temperatures. In particular, according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, reservoir inflows during the period 2016-2050 could be reduced by 21% compared to the reference scenario results. Finally, the projected crop water demands and hydro-meteorological changes are evaluated together and the reservoir performances are examined using various indices. Assuming that the performance of the past irrigation yields will not change in the future, it is foreseen that reservoir’s sustainability will decrease by 16% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Even if the irrigation efficiency is increased by 40%, the reservoir cannot reach past sustainability characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Umut Okkan & Umut Kirdemir, 2018. "Investigation of the Behavior of an Agricultural-Operated Dam Reservoir Under RCP Scenarios of AR5-IPCC," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2847-2866, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1962-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1962-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lanhai Li & Honggang Xu & Xi Chen & S. Simonovic, 2010. "Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Performance Assessment Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 83-104, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaenam Lee & Hyungjin Shin, 2022. "Agricultural Reservoir Operation Strategy Considering Climate and Policy Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.
    2. Sinan Nacar & Murat Şan & Murat Kankal & Umut Okkan, 2024. "Trends and amount changes of temperature and precipitation under future projections in high–low groups and intra-period for the Eastern Black Sea, the Wettest Basin in Türkiye," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(11), pages 9833-9866, September.

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