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Flood Intensification due to Changes in Land Use

Author

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  • Bahram Saghafian
  • Hassan Farazjoo
  • Babak Bozorgy
  • Farhad Yazdandoost

Abstract

The non-stationarity in runoff regime may be attributed to various causes such as climate change, land use change, and man-made runoff control structures. Degradation of land use can induce significant impact on infiltration and surface roughness leading to higher flood discharges. This study aims at quantifying possible effects of land use changes and identifying flood source areas for future flood control planning in the Golestan watershed located northeast of Iran. A preliminary trend analysis on the annual maximum flood record of three stations inside the watershed showed that two stations were subject to anthropogenic change. This is while no trend could be detected in the annual maximum rainfall records in the region. Using a calibrated event-based rainfall-runoff model, flood hydrographs corresponding to land use conditions in 1967 and 1996 were simulated and relative changes in the peak flow of the two subsequent conditions were determined for different return periods. The results showed that the impact of land use changes on the flood peak discharge is considerably greater in some subwatersheds. Two limiting land use scenarios were also considered to investigate the envelope of future flood peaks in the watershed. By successively eliminating subwatersheds from the simulation process in a method titled "unit flood response”, the contribution of each subwatershed to the outlet flood peak was quantified. Contribution, per unit area, to the outlet flood peak was the basis to rank the subwatersheds in terms of their flood potential. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Bahram Saghafian & Hassan Farazjoo & Babak Bozorgy & Farhad Yazdandoost, 2008. "Flood Intensification due to Changes in Land Use," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(8), pages 1051-1067, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:22:y:2008:i:8:p:1051-1067
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-007-9210-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amrie Singh & David Dawson & Mark Trigg & Nigel Wright, 2021. "A review of modelling methodologies for flood source area (FSA) identification," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1047-1068, June.
    2. Morteza Miri & Tayeb Raziei & Mehran Zand & Mohammad Reza Kousari, 2023. "Synoptic aspects of two flash flood-inducing heavy rainfalls in southern Iran during 2019–2020," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2655-2672, February.
    3. Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Fulong Chen, 2014. "Effects of land use change on flood characteristics in mountainous area of Daqinghe watershed, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 593-607, January.
    4. Jie Liu & Shao-yu Wang & Dong-mei Li, 2014. "The Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use Changes on Flood Exposure of Wuhan in Yangtze River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2507-2522, July.
    5. Han Lim & Kanokporn Boochabun & Alan Ziegler, 2012. "Modifiers and Amplifiers of High and low Flows on the Ping River in Northern Thailand (1921–2009): The Roles of Climatic Events and Anthropogenic Activity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4203-4224, November.
    6. D. Nagesh Kumar & Falguni Baliarsingh & K. Srinivasa Raju, 2010. "Optimal Reservoir Operation for Flood Control Using Folded Dynamic Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(6), pages 1045-1064, April.
    7. Michalis Diakakis, 2011. "A method for flood hazard mapping based on basin morphometry: application in two catchments in Greece," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 803-814, March.
    8. Meixiu Yu & Qiongfang Li & Xiaolong Liu & Jianyun Zhang, 2016. "Quantifying the effect on flood regime of land-use pattern changes via hydrological simulation in the upper Huaihe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 2279-2297, December.
    9. Lin Dou & Mingbin Huang & Yang Hong, 2009. "Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Conservation Measures on Streamflow Responses in a Watershed of the Loess Plateau, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(10), pages 1935-1949, August.
    10. Nastaran Chitsaz & Mohammad Banihabib, 2015. "Comparison of Different Multi Criteria Decision-Making Models in Prioritizing Flood Management Alternatives," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2503-2525, June.
    11. P. Zope & T. Eldho & V. Jothiprakash, 2015. "Impacts of urbanization on flooding of a coastal urban catchment: a case study of Mumbai City, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 887-908, January.
    12. Jarbou Bahrawi & Hatem Ewea & Ahmed Kamis & Mohamed Elhag, 2020. "Potential flood risk due to urbanization expansion in arid environments, Saudi Arabia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 795-809, October.
    13. Jianzhu Li & Guoqing Li & Shuhan Zhou & Fulong Chen, 2016. "Quantifying the Effects of Land Surface Change on Annual Runoff Considering Precipitation Variability by SWAT," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1071-1084, February.
    14. Jie Liu & Zhenwu Shi & Dan Wang, 2016. "Measuring and mapping the flood vulnerability based on land-use patterns: a case study of Beijing, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1545-1565, September.
    15. Omid Rahmati & Ali Haghizadeh & Stefanos Stefanidis, 2016. "Assessing the Accuracy of GIS-Based Analytical Hierarchy Process for Watershed Prioritization; Gorganrood River Basin, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1131-1150, February.
    16. Masoud Saatsaz, 2020. "A historical investigation on water resources management in Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1749-1785, March.
    17. Yuhong Liu & Xin Leng & Zifa Deng & Lixin Wang & Li Zhang & Shirong Liu & Shuqing An, 2011. "Effects of Watershed Vegetation on Tributary Water Yields During the Wet Season in the Heishui Valley, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(5), pages 1449-1464, March.
    18. Mosaffaie, Jamal & Salehpour Jam, Amin & Tabatabaei, Mahmoud Reza & Kousari, Mahammad Reza, 2021. "Trend assessment of the watershed health based on DPSIR framework," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    19. P. E. Zope & T. I. Eldho & V. Jothiprakash, 2017. "Hydrological impacts of land use–land cover change and detention basins on urban flood hazard: a case study of Poisar River basin, Mumbai, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1267-1283, July.
    20. Bahram Saghafian & Saeed Golian & Mohammad Elmi & Ruhangiz Akhtari, 2013. "Monte Carlo analysis of the effect of spatial distribution of storms on prioritization of flood source areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1059-1071, March.
    21. Fatemeh Yavari & Seyyed Ali Salehi Neyshabouri & Jafar Yazdi & Amir Molajou & Adam Brysiewicz, 2022. "A Novel Framework for Urban Flood damage Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 1991-2011, April.
    22. Jianzhu Li & Senming Tan & Zhaozhen Wei & Fulong Chen & Ping Feng, 2014. "A New Method of Change Point Detection Using Variable Fuzzy Sets Under Environmental Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5125-5138, November.
    23. Jianzhu Li & Senming Tan & Fulong Chen & Ping Feng, 2014. "Quantitatively analyze the impact of land use/land cover change on annual runoff decrease," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 1191-1207, November.
    24. Raoof Mostafazadeh & Amir Sadoddin & Abdolreza Bahremand & Vahed Berdi Sheikh & Arash Zare Garizi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of flood control structures using a multi-criteria decision-making technique in Northeast Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1827-1846, July.
    25. Omid Rahmati & Hamid Reza Pourghasemi, 2017. "Identification of Critical Flood Prone Areas in Data-Scarce and Ungauged Regions: A Comparison of Three Data Mining Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1473-1487, March.

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