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Derivation of Optimal Hedging Rules for a Water-supply Reservoir through Compromise Programming

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  • J. Shiau
  • H. Lee

Abstract

This study derives optimal hedging rules for simultaneously minimizing short- and long-term shortage characteristics for a water-supply reservoir. Hedging is an effective measure to reduce a high-percentage single period shortage, but at a cost of more frequent small shortages. Thus simultaneously minimizing the maximum monthly shortage and the shortage ratio (defined as the ratio of total shortages to total demands) over the analysis horizon is the operation goal of a water-supply reservoir to derive optimal hedging rules. Two types of hedging are explored in this study: the first uses water availability defined as storage plus inflow, while the second depends on the potential shortage conditions within a specific future lead-time period. The compromise programming is employed to solve this conflicting multiobjective problem. The optimal hedging rules under given reservoir inflow are derived first. Because future inflow cannot be known exactly in advance, the monthly decile inflows are suggested as a surrogate for forecast of future inflows in hedging rules for real-time reservoir operations. The results show that the suggested method can effectively achieve the reservoir operation goal. The merits of the proposed methodology are demonstrated with an application to the Shihmen reservoir in Taiwan. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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  • J. Shiau & H. Lee, 2005. "Derivation of Optimal Hedging Rules for a Water-supply Reservoir through Compromise Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(2), pages 111-132, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:19:y:2005:i:2:p:111-132
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-005-1502-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. T. Neelakantan & N. Pundarikanthan, 1999. "Hedging Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(6), pages 409-426, December.
    2. Shih, Jhih-Shyang & ReVelle, Charles, 1995. "Water supply operations during drought: A discrete hedging rule," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 163-175, April.
    3. Xu Zongxue & K. Jinno & A. Kawamura & S. Takesaki & K. Ito, 1998. "Performance Risk Analysis for Fukuoka Water Supply System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(1), pages 13-30, February.
    4. J. Shiau, 2003. "Water Release Policy Effects on the Shortage Characteristics for the Shihmen Reservoir System during Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(6), pages 463-480, December.
    5. K. Srinivasan & M. Philipose, 1998. "Effect of Hedging on Over-Year Reservoir Performance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(2), pages 95-120, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rui Hui & Jay Lund & Jianshi Zhao & Tongtiegang Zhao, 2016. "Optimal Pre-storm Flood Hedging Releases for a Single Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5113-5129, November.
    2. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Ya-Yi Hsiao, 2012. "Water-deficit-based drought risk assessments in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 237-257, October.
    3. Xuning Guo & Tiesong Hu & Conglin Wu & Tao Zhang & Yibing Lv, 2013. "Multi-Objective Optimization of the Proposed Multi-Reservoir Operating Policy Using Improved NSPSO," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2137-2153, May.
    4. Hui Wang & Junguo Liu, 2013. "Reservoir Operation Incorporating Hedging Rules and Operational Inflow Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1427-1438, March.
    5. Beshavard, Mahdi & Adib, Arash & Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad & Kisi, Ozgur, 2022. "Establishing effective warning storage to derive optimal reservoir operation policy based on the drought condition," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    6. Iman Ahmadianfar & Reza Zamani, 2020. "Assessment of the hedging policy on reservoir operation for future drought conditions under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 253-268, March.
    7. Alireza Dariane & Farzane Karami, 2014. "Deriving Hedging Rules of Multi-Reservoir System by Online Evolving Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3651-3665, September.
    8. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Hsu-Hui Wen & I-Wen Su, 2021. "Comparing Optimal Hedging Policies Incorporating Past Operation Information and Future Hydrologic Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2177-2196, May.
    9. Erica Camnasio & Gianfranco Becciu, 2011. "Evaluation of the Feasibility of Irrigation Storage in a Flood Detention Pond in an Agricultural Catchment in Northern Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(5), pages 1489-1508, March.
    10. Fang Wan & Wenlin Yuan & Jin Zhou, 2017. "Derivation of Tri-level Programming Model for Multi-Reservoir Optimal Operation in Inter-Basin Transfer-Diversion-Supply Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 479-494, January.
    11. Alcigeimes B. Celeste & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2018. "Assessment of Stochastic Operation Optimization for Reservoirs of Contrasting Scales," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(11), pages 3751-3763, September.
    12. Mike Spiliotis & Luis Mediero & Luis Garrote, 2016. "Optimization of Hedging Rules for Reservoir Operation During Droughts Based on Particle Swarm Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5759-5778, December.
    13. Simona Consoli & Benedetto Matarazzo & Nello Pappalardo, 2008. "Operating Rules of an Irrigation Purposes Reservoir Using Multi-Objective Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(5), pages 551-564, May.
    14. Alcigeimes Celeste & Max Billib, 2012. "Improving Implicit Stochastic Reservoir Optimization Models with Long-Term Mean Inflow Forecast," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2443-2451, July.
    15. Youngkyu Jin & Sangho Lee, 2019. "Comparative Effectiveness of Reservoir Operation Applying Hedging Rules Based on Available Water and Beginning Storage to Cope with Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1897-1911, March.
    16. Yong Peng & Jinggang Chu & Anbang Peng & Huicheng Zhou, 2015. "Optimization Operation Model Coupled with Improving Water-Transfer Rules and Hedging Rules for Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3787-3806, August.
    17. C. Sivapragasam & G. Vasudevan & J. Maran & C. Bose & S. Kaza & N. Ganesh, 2009. "Modeling Evaporation-Seepage Losses for Reservoir Water Balance in Semi-arid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 853-867, March.

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