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Time-Varying Discrete Hedging Rules for Drought Contingency Plan Considering Long-Range Dependency in Streamflow

Author

Listed:
  • Seung Beom Seo

    (Seoul National University
    Korea Environment Institute)

  • Young-Oh Kim

    (Seoul National University)

  • Shin-Uk Kang

    (K-Water)

Abstract

This study proposed a simple and efficient method for developing time-varying discrete hedging rules. The novelty of the proposed methodology is that long-range streamflow traces are inserted into the sequent peak processes in order to reflect long-lasting drought events, which is rarely considered, during the development of the hedging rules. The developed rules were evaluated with three performance indices (risk, resiliency, and vulnerability) across a wide range of synthetic streamflow scenarios that represent changes in the annual mean streamflow and the long-range streamflow dependency. Boryung Dam, located in South Korea, was used as a case study. As a result, the developed hedging rules reflecting long-range streamflow traces led to enhanced reservoir operation performance results in terms of resiliency and vulnerability indices. The developed hedging rules outperformed the reference hedging rules, especially under dry conditions. When there was a strong long-range dependency in streamflow, the superiority of the developed hedging rules was found to be remarkable. Since the proposed methodology is relatively simple, it will be easy for dam operators to understand and implement discrete hedging rules at different sites.

Suggested Citation

  • Seung Beom Seo & Young-Oh Kim & Shin-Uk Kang, 2019. "Time-Varying Discrete Hedging Rules for Drought Contingency Plan Considering Long-Range Dependency in Streamflow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2791-2807, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02244-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02244-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. T. Neelakantan & N. Pundarikanthan, 1999. "Hedging Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(6), pages 409-426, December.
    2. Shih, Jhih-Shyang & ReVelle, Charles, 1995. "Water supply operations during drought: A discrete hedging rule," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 163-175, April.
    3. J. Shiau, 2003. "Water Release Policy Effects on the Shortage Characteristics for the Shihmen Reservoir System during Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(6), pages 463-480, December.
    4. Mohammad Karamouz & Sanaz Imen & Sara Nazif, 2012. "Development of a Demand Driven Hydro-climatic Model for Drought Planning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 329-357, January.
    5. K. Srinivasan & M. Philipose, 1998. "Effect of Hedging on Over-Year Reservoir Performance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(2), pages 95-120, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gi Joo Kim & Young-Oh Kim, 2021. "How Does the Coupling of Real-World Policies with Optimization Models Expand the Practicality of Solutions in Reservoir Operation Problems?," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3121-3137, August.
    2. Gi Joo Kim & Seung Beom Seo & Young-Oh Kim, 2022. "Adaptive Reservoir Management by Reforming the Zone-based Hedging Rules against Multi-year Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3575-3590, August.

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