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Bayesian estimation of the threshold of a generalised pareto distribution for heavy-tailed observations

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  • Cristiano Villa

    (University of Kent)

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss a method to define prior distributions for the threshold of a generalised Pareto distribution, in particular when its applications are directed to heavy-tailed data. We propose to assign prior probabilities to the order statistics of a given set of observations. In other words, we assume that the threshold coincides with one of the data points. We show two ways of defining a prior: by assigning equal mass to each order statistic, that is a uniform prior, and by considering the worth that every order statistic has in representing the true threshold. Both proposed priors represent a scenario of minimal information, and we study their adequacy through simulation exercises and by analysing two applications from insurance and finance.

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  • Cristiano Villa, 2017. "Bayesian estimation of the threshold of a generalised pareto distribution for heavy-tailed observations," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 26(1), pages 95-118, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:26:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11749-016-0501-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11749-016-0501-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. M. Carvalho & S. Pereira & P. Pereira & P. Zea Bermudez, 2022. "An Extreme Value Bayesian Lasso for the Conditional Left and Right Tails," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 222-239, June.

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