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Design of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze the Styrene Demand in the Brazilian Market

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Leandro Hoffmann Souza

    (Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos – UNISINOS)

  • Luis Henrique Rodrigues

    (Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos – UNISINOS)

  • Maria Isabel Wolf Motta Morandi

    (Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos – UNISINOS)

Abstract

The growth of the petrochemical industry is based on end-user applications such as the automotive and construction sectors, which are the main drivers of the styrene market. However, the use of substitutes for petrochemicals is a reality and creates a competition in the applications of petroleum products. In this sense, this research aimed to design a system dynamics model to evaluate different scenarios, observing the behavior of the styrene demand over time. In the first phase of the project, a greater understanding of the issue was created and a closed loops diagram was elaborated. It was used during the second phase to design an explanatory regression validation model for the styrene demand. In phase three, a visualizing model and scenarios were designed. The scenarios themselves and the results of each scenario were evaluated. The designed and simulated scenarios aimed to evaluate the impact that the use of substitute materials and the variations in gross domestic product cause to the styrene market. The use of system dynamics together with scenario planning was efficient as different strategies for the market could be evaluated based on the simulated scenarios. A critical analysis of the model’s contribution to the decision-making within organizations concludes the study.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Leandro Hoffmann Souza & Luis Henrique Rodrigues & Maria Isabel Wolf Motta Morandi, 2018. "Design of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze the Styrene Demand in the Brazilian Market," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 87-104, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:syspar:v:31:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11213-017-9417-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11213-017-9417-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David C Lane, 2016. "What we talk about when we talk about ‘systems thinking’," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(3), pages 527-528, March.
    2. Joan E. van Aken, 2004. "Management Research Based on the Paradigm of the Design Sciences: The Quest for Field‐Tested and Grounded Technological Rules," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 219-246, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Claralucia Prates Machado & Maria Isabel Wolf Morandi & Miguel Sellitto, 2019. "System Dynamics and Learning Scenarios for Process Improvement and Regional Resilience: A Study in The Footwear Industry of Southern Brazil," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 663-686, December.

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