IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stmapp/v23y2014i3p435-449.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Kernel-based semiparametric multinomial logit modelling of political party preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Roland Langrock
  • Nils-Bastian Heidenreich
  • Stefan Sperlich

Abstract

Conventional, parametric multinomial logit models are in general not sufficient for capturing the complex structures of electorates. In this paper, we use a semiparametric multinomial logit model to give an analysis of party preferences along individuals’ characteristics using a sample of the German electorate in 2006. Germany is a particularly strong case for more flexible nonparametric approaches in this context, since due to the reunification and the preceding different political histories the composition of the electorate is very complex and nuanced. Our analysis reveals strong interactions of the covariates age and income, and highly nonlinear shapes of the factor impacts for each party’s likelihood to be supported. Notably, we develop and provide a smoothed likelihood estimator for semiparametric multinomial logit models, which can be applied also in other application fields, such as, e.g., marketing. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Langrock & Nils-Bastian Heidenreich & Stefan Sperlich, 2014. "Kernel-based semiparametric multinomial logit modelling of political party preferences," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(3), pages 435-449, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:23:y:2014:i:3:p:435-449
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-014-0261-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10260-014-0261-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10260-014-0261-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Max Köhler & Anja Schindler & Stefan Sperlich, 2014. "A Review and Comparison of Bandwidth Selection Methods for Kernel Regression," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 82(2), pages 243-274, August.
    2. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-1240, September.
    3. Kalyanaram, Gurumurthy & Little, John D C, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Latitude of Price Acceptance in Consumer Package Goods," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 21(3), pages 408-418, December.
    4. Small, Kenneth A & Hsiao, Cheng, 1985. "Multinomial Logit Specification Tests," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 619-627, October.
    5. Thomas Kneib & Bernhard Baumgartner & Winfried Steiner, 2007. "Semiparametric multinomial logit models for analysing consumer choice behaviour," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 91(3), pages 225-244, October.
    6. John Curtice & David Firth, 2008. "Exit polling in a cold climate: the BBC–ITV experience in Britain in 2005," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(3), pages 509-539, June.
    7. Lakshman Krishnamurthi & S. P. Raj, 1988. "A Model of Brand Choice and Purchase Quantity Price Sensitivities," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 7(1), pages 1-20.
    8. Sperlich, Stefan & Tjøstheim, Dag & Yang, Lijian, 2002. "Nonparametric Estimation And Testing Of Interaction In Additive Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 197-251, April.
    9. Abe, Makoto, 1999. "A Generalized Additive Model for Discrete-Choice Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 271-284, July.
    10. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bansal, Prateek & Daziano, Ricardo A. & Sunder, Naveen, 2019. "Arriving at a decision: A semi-parametric approach to institutional birth choice in India," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 86-103.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bansal, Prateek & Daziano, Ricardo A. & Sunder, Naveen, 2019. "Arriving at a decision: A semi-parametric approach to institutional birth choice in India," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 86-103.
    2. Bernhard Baumgartner & Daniel Guhl & Thomas Kneib & Winfried J. Steiner, 2018. "Flexible estimation of time-varying effects for frequently purchased retail goods: a modeling approach based on household panel data," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(4), pages 837-873, October.
    3. Guhl, Daniel & Baumgartner, Bernhard & Kneib, Thomas & Steiner, Winfried J., 2018. "Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 394-414.
    4. Hruschka, Harald & Fettes, Werner & Probst, Markus, 2004. "An empirical comparison of the validity of a neural net based multinomial logit choice model to alternative model specifications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-180, November.
    5. Erik Stam & Roy Thurik & Peter van der Zwan, 2010. "Entrepreneurial exit in real and imagined markets," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(4), pages 1109-1139, August.
    6. Sakaue, Katsuki, 2018. "Informal fee charge and school choice under a free primary education policy: Panel data evidence from rural Uganda," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 112-127.
    7. Toşa, Cristian & Sato, Hitomi & Morikawa, Takayuki & Miwa, Tomio, 2018. "Commuting behavior in emerging urban areas: Findings of a revealed-preferences and stated-intentions survey in Cluj-Napoca, Romania," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 78-93.
    8. Lindelow, Magnus, 2002. "Health care demand in rural Mozambique," FCND discussion papers 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Sheng Gong & Jason.S. Bergtold & Elizabeth Yeager, 2021. "Assessing the joint adoption and complementarity between in-field conservation practices of Kansas farmers," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    10. Jia, Hao & Skaperdas, Stergios & Vaidya, Samarth, 2013. "Contest functions: Theoretical foundations and issues in estimation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 211-222.
    11. Urwin, Sean & Lau, Yiu-Shing & Grande, Gunn & Sutton, Matt, 2021. "The extent and predictors of discrepancy between provider and recipient reports of informal caregiving," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    12. Shaoming Cheng, 2008. "How can western China attract FDI? A case of Japanese investment," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(2), pages 357-374, June.
    13. Alba-Ramirez, Alfonso & Arranz, Jose M. & Munoz-Bullon, Fernando, 2007. "Exits from unemployment: Recall or new job," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 788-810, October.
    14. Amoh-Gyimah, Richard & Aidoo, Eric Nimako, 2013. "Mode of transport to work by government employees in the Kumasi metropolis, Ghana," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 35-43.
    15. Cécile Détang‐Dessendre & Florence Goffette‐Nagot & Virginie Piguet, 2008. "Life Cycle And Migration To Urban And Rural Areas: Estimation Of A Mixed Logit Model On French Data," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 789-824, October.
    16. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2004. "What type of vehicle do people drive? The role of attitude and lifestyle in influencing vehicle type choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 201-222, March.
    17. Fok, D. & Paap, R., 2019. "New Misspecification Tests for Multinomial Logit Models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-24, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    18. Jan Babecký & Philip Du Caju & Theodora Kosma & Martina Lawless & Julián Messina & Tairi Rõõm, 2010. "Downward Nominal and Real Wage Rigidity: Survey Evidence from European Firms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 884-910, December.
    19. Yuri Jo & Chang-Yang Lee, 2014. "Technological Capability, Agglomeration Economies and Firm Location Choice," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(8), pages 1337-1352, August.
    20. Fathi Fakhfakh & Annick Vignes & Jihan Ghrairi, 2015. "Youth ! ... How did you find your job ?," Working Papers hal-01253907, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:23:y:2014:i:3:p:435-449. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.