IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v175y2024i3d10.1007_s11205-023-03162-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Multiversal Model of Vibration of Effects of the Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being (BES) on Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Giulio Giacomo Cantone

    (University of Sussex
    University of Catania)

  • Venera Tomaselli

    (University of Sussex
    University of Catania)

Abstract

This study checks the hypothesis that sustainable well-being is a determinant factor of fertility through the application of a multiversal method based on the assumptions of Vibration of Effects (VoE) model of multiversal sampling on the Italian Equitable and Sustainable Well-being (BES) dataset. For 48 social indicators of well-being, adopting the Province as statistical unit, the estimate of linear effect has been systematically sampled 1024 times. This multiversal sampling allows to estimate the component of the hypothetical variability of the estimate of the effect size that depends on the theoretical choices of the analysis. This component is commonly underestimated, hidden, or ignored in regular multivariate analysis or classical bootstrapping. Results do not allow to claim that any of the 48 social indicators is a robust linear predictor of fertility. Indicators associated with high statistical significance are also at risk of misleading the causal relationship. Implications for policy-making and the future direction of the research on BES are discussed in the conclusive remarks.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Giacomo Cantone & Venera Tomaselli, 2024. "A Multiversal Model of Vibration of Effects of the Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being (BES) on Fertility," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 941-964, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:175:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-023-03162-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-023-03162-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-023-03162-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-023-03162-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oded Galor, 2012. "The demographic transition: causes and consequences," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, January.
    2. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Venera Tomaselli & Mario Fordellone & Maurizio Vichi, 2021. "Building Well-Being Composite Indicator for Micro-Territorial Areas Through PLS-SEM and K-Means Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 407-429, January.
    4. William Robert Reed, 2015. "On the Practice of Lagging Variables to Avoid Simultaneity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(6), pages 897-905, December.
    5. Federica Onori & Giovanna Jona Lasinio, 2022. "Modeling “Equitable and Sustainable Well-being” (BES) Using Bayesian Networks: A Case Study of the Italian Regions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 1003-1037, June.
    6. Wendy Sigle, 2021. "Demography’s theory and approach: (How) has the view from the margins changed?," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(S1), pages 235-251, December.
    7. Guido W. Imbens, 2021. "Statistical Significance, p-Values, and the Reporting of Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 157-174, Summer.
    8. Michela Gnaldi & Venera Tomaselli & Antonio Forcina, 2018. "Ecological Fallacy and Covariates: New Insights based on Multilevel Modelling of Individual Data," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 86(1), pages 119-135, April.
    9. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2022. "Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 9755, CESifo.
    10. Felix C. Tropf & Jornt J. Mandemakers, 2017. "Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 71-91, February.
    11. F. C. Billari & R. Borgoni, 2005. "Assessing the use of sample selection models in the estimation of fertility postponement effects," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 14(3), pages 389-402, December.
    12. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    13. Uri Simonsohn & Joseph P. Simmons & Leif D. Nelson, 2020. "Specification curve analysis," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1208-1214, November.
    14. Adriana Monte & Gabriella Schoier, 2022. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being Over Time," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 735-750, June.
    15. Megan L Head & Luke Holman & Rob Lanfear & Andrew T Kahn & Michael D Jennions, 2015. "The Extent and Consequences of P-Hacking in Science," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, March.
    16. Uri Simonsohn & Joseph P. Simmons & Leif D. Nelson, 2020. "Publisher Correction: Specification curve analysis," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1215-1215, November.
    17. Tropf, Felix C & Mandemakers, Jornt J, 2017. "Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors," OSF Preprints dqrrx, Center for Open Science.
    18. Leonardo Salvatore Alaimo & Alberto Arcagni & Marco Fattore & Filomena Maggino & Valeria Quondamstefano, 2022. "Measuring Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being in Italian Regions: The Non-aggregative Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 711-733, June.
    19. Leonardo S. Alaimo & Filomena Maggino, 2020. "Sustainable Development Goals Indicators at Territorial Level: Conceptual and Methodological Issues—The Italian Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 383-419, January.
    20. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    21. Roberto Impicciatore & Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna, 2017. "The impact of education on fertility in Italy. Changes across cohorts and south–north differences," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 2293-2317, September.
    22. Jesús Rodrigo-Comino & Gianluca Egidi & Adele Sateriano & Stefano Poponi & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Antonio Gimenez Morera, 2021. "Suburban Fertility and Metropolitan Cycles: Insights from European Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, February.
    23. Lars Leszczensky & Tobias Wolbring, 2022. "How to Deal With Reverse Causality Using Panel Data? Recommendations for Researchers Based on a Simulation Study," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 51(2), pages 837-865, May.
    24. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    25. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    26. Pierpaolo D’Urso & Vincenzina Vitale, 2021. "Modeling Local BES Indicators by Copula-Based Bayesian Networks," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 823-847, February.
    27. Andrea Ciccarelli & Elena Fabrizi & Eleonora Romano & Pietro Zoppoli, 2022. "Health, Well-Being and Work History Patterns: Insight on Territorial Differences," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 629-647, June.
    28. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-313, June.
    29. Cristina Davino & Pasquale Dolce & Stefania Taralli & Vincenzo Esposito Vinzi, 2018. "A Quantile Composite-Indicator Approach for the Measurement of Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being: A Case Study of the Italian Provinces," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 999-1029, April.
    30. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2012. "Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(3), pages 311-327.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cantone, Giulio Giacomo & Tomaselli, Venera, 2024. "On the Coherence of Composite Indexes: Multiversal Model and Specification Analysis for an Index of Well-Being," MetaArXiv d5y26, Center for Open Science.
    2. Guillaume Coqueret, 2023. "Forking paths in financial economics," Papers 2401.08606, arXiv.org.
    3. Janetta Nestorová Dická & Filip Lipták, 2024. "Regional fertility predictors based on socioeconomic determinants in Slovakia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-43, September.
    4. Cantone, Giulio Giacomo, 2023. "The multiversal methodology as a remedy of the replication crisis," MetaArXiv kuhmz, Center for Open Science.
    5. Mikaela Brough & Paula Sheppard, 2022. "Fertility Decision-Making in the UK: Insights from a Qualitative Study among British Men and Women," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Shuang Chen, 2022. "The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 125-161, March.
    7. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Hanna Virtanen & Mikko Silliman & Tiina Kuuppelomäki & Kristiina Huttunen, "undated". "Education, Gender, and Family Formation," Working Papers 340, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    9. Fattore, Marco & Alaimo, Leonardo Salvatore, 2023. "A partial order toolbox for building synthetic indicators of sustainability with ordinal data," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Schweinsberg, Martin & Feldman, Michael & Staub, Nicola & van den Akker, Olmo R. & van Aert, Robbie C.M. & van Assen, Marcel A.L.M. & Liu, Yang & Althoff, Tim & Heer, Jeffrey & Kale, Alex & Mohamed, Z, 2021. "Same data, different conclusions: Radical dispersion in empirical results when independent analysts operationalize and test the same hypothesis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 228-249.
    11. Ilaria Zambon & Kostas Rontos & Cecilia Reynaud & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Toward an unwanted dividend? Fertility decline and the North–South divide in Italy, 1952–2018," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 169-187, February.
    12. Lisbeth Loft, 2022. "The importance of child characteristics: children’s health and mothers’ subsequent childbearing," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 599-616, December.
    13. Ilyes Boumahdi & Nouzha Zaoujal, 2023. "Regional Well-Being Disparities in Morocco and its OECD Partners," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 183-211, June.
    14. Anna Bokun, 2024. "Cash transfers and fertility: Evidence from Poland’s Family 500+ Policy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(28), pages 855-910.
    15. Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Sprawl or Segregation? Local Fertility as a Proxy of Socio-spatial Disparities Under Sequential Economic Downturns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1129-1160, December.
    16. Kikuta,Kyosuke & Ono, Yoshikuni, 2024. "Global Evidence for the Relevance of Irrelevant Events: International Soccer Games and Leader Approval," IDE Discussion Papers 942, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    17. Eric-Jan Wagenmakers & Alexandra Sarafoglou & Sil Aarts & Casper Albers & Johannes Algermissen & Štěpán Bahník & Noah Dongen & Rink Hoekstra & David Moreau & Don Ravenzwaaij & Aljaž Sluga & Franziska , 2021. "Seven steps toward more transparency in statistical practice," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 1473-1480, November.
    18. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    19. Seongsoo Choi, 2018. "Fewer mothers with more colleges? The impacts of expansion in higher education on first marriage and first childbirth," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(20), pages 593-634.
    20. Insu Chang & Heeran Park & Hosung Sohn, 2021. "Causal Impact of School Starting Age on the Tempo of Childbirths: Evidence from Working Mothers and School Entry Cutoff Using Exact Date of Birth," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 997-1022, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:175:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-023-03162-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.