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Assessing the use of sample selection models in the estimation of fertility postponement effects

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  • F. C. Billari

    (Università Bocconi
    Università Bocconi)

  • R. Borgoni

    (Università degli Studi di Milano)

Abstract

. Several studies have shown that at the individual level there exists a negative relationship between age at first birth and completed fertility. Using twin data in order to control for unobserved heterogeneity as possible source of bias, Kohler et al. (2001) showed the significant presence of such "postponement effect" at the micro level. In this paper, we apply sample selection models, where selection is based on having or not having had a first birth at all, to estimate the impact of postponing first births on subsequent fertility for four European nations, three of which have now lowest-low fertility levels. We use data from a set of comparative surveys (Fertility and Family Surveys), and we apply sample selection models on the logarithm of total fertility and on the progression to the second birth. Our results show that postponement effects are only very slightly affected by sample selection biases, so that sample selection models do not improve significantly the results of standard regression techniques on selected samples. Our results confirm that the postponement effect is higher in countries with lowest-low fertility levels.

Suggested Citation

  • F. C. Billari & R. Borgoni, 2005. "Assessing the use of sample selection models in the estimation of fertility postponement effects," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 14(3), pages 389-402, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:14:y:2005:i:3:d:10.1007_s10260-005-0122-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-005-0122-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Simpson, Julija & Bambra, Clare & Brown, Heather, 2021. "Do Changes in Employment and Hours Worked Contribute to a Decreasing in the Mental Health of Single Mothers during a Period of Welfare Reform in the UK? A Longitudinal Analysis (2009-2019)," IZA Discussion Papers 14968, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Natalie Nitsche & Hannah Brückner, 2021. "Late, But Not Too Late? Postponement of First Birth Among Highly Educated US Women," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 371-403, April.
    3. Jan Van Bavel & Joanna Rózanska-Putek, 2010. "Second birth rates across Europe: interactions between women’s level of education and child care enrolment," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 8(1), pages 107-138.
    4. Melinda Mills & Nicoletta Balbo, 2011. "The influence of the family network on the realisation of fertility intentions," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 179-206.
    5. Erich Battistin & Michele De Nadai & Mario Padula, 2015. "Roadblocks on the Road to Grandma�s House: Fertility Consequences of Delayed Retirement," Working Papers 748, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Padula, Mario & Battistin, Erich & De Nadai, Michele, 2014. "Roadblocks on the Road to Grandma's House: Fertility Consequences of Delayed Retirement," CEPR Discussion Papers 9945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Djundeva, Maja & Szalma, Ivett, 2018. "What shapes public attitudes towards assisted reproduction technologies?," OSF Preprints ymhbt, Center for Open Science.
    8. Eva Beaujouan & Anne Solaz, 2013. "Racing Against the Biological Clock? Childbearing and Sterility Among Men and Women in Second Unions in France," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 39-67, February.
    9. Aart C. Liefbroer & Dimiter Philipov & Francesco C. Billari, 2006. "The Postponement of Childbearing in Europe: Driving Forces and Implications," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17.
    10. Ann Berrington & Juliet Stone & Eva Beaujouan, 2015. "Educational differences in timing and quantum of childbearing in Britain," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(26), pages 733-764.
    11. Rondinelli, Concetta & Aassve, Arnstein & C. Billari, Francesco, 2006. "Socio-economic differences in postponement and recuperation of fertility in Italy: results from a multi-spell random effect model," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-46, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    12. Steele, Fiona & Durrant, Gabriele B., 2011. "Alternative approaches to multilevel modelling of survey non-contact and refusal," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 50113, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Livia Sz. Oláh & Eva Bernhardt, 2008. "Sweden: Combining childbearing and gender equality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(28), pages 1105-1144.

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