IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v146y2019i1d10.1007_s11205-018-1884-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Multilevel Multinomial Model for the Dynamics of Graduates Employment in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra De Iaco

    (University of Salento)

  • Sabrina Maggio

    (University of Salento)

  • Donato Posa

    (University of Salento)

Abstract

Several studies have demonstrated that skilled human capital is a key resource for the economic growth of a territory, since it helps to increase productivity, competitiveness and sustainability over time. The aim of this paper is to model the probability of working for university graduates 3 years after degree, taking into account the effectiveness and coherence of a degree with respect to the labour market. Hence, first of all, a multilevel binary logit model for measuring the probability of working will be discussed. Then, a multilevel multinomial model suitable to predict the probability of the possible job status, such as unemployed/unsteady employed/steady employed, will be further proposed. The ISTAT microdata regarding the Italian survey on the graduates’ employment conditions, will be used.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra De Iaco & Sabrina Maggio & Donato Posa, 2019. "A Multilevel Multinomial Model for the Dynamics of Graduates Employment in Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 149-168, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:146:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-018-1884-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-018-1884-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-018-1884-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-018-1884-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. L. Biggeri & M. Bini & L. Grilli, 2001. "The transition from university to work: a multilevel approach to the analysis of the time to obtain the first job," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 293-305.
    2. Leonardo Grilli & Fabrizia Mealli, 2008. "Nonparametric Bounds on the Causal Effect of University Studies on Job Opportunities Using Principal Stratification," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 33(1), pages 111-130, March.
    3. Dario Pozzoli, 2009. "The Transition to Work for Italian University Graduates," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(1), pages 131-169, March.
    4. Cristina Mollica & Lea Petrella, 2017. "Bayesian binary quantile regression for the analysis of Bachelor-to-Master transition," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(15), pages 2791-2812, November.
    5. F. Belloc & A. Maruotti & L. Petrella, 2011. "How individual characteristics affect university students drop-out: a semiparametric mixed-effects model for an Italian case study," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 2225-2239.
    6. Giorgio Di Pietro & Peter Urwin, 2006. "Education and skills mismatch in the Italian graduate labour market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 79-93.
    7. Claudio Berardino & Giuseppe Mauro & Davide Quaglione & Alessandro Sarra, 2016. "Industrial Districts and Socio-economic Well-Being: An Investigation on the Italian Provinces Disparities," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 337-363, October.
    8. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    9. Leonardo Grilli & Carla Rampichini, 2007. "A multilevel multinomial logit model for the analysis of graduates’ skills," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 16(3), pages 381-393, November.
    10. Gabriele Ballarino & Massimiliano Bratti, 2009. "Field of Study and University Graduates' Early Employment Outcomes in Italy during 1995–2004," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(3), pages 421-457, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrizia Ordine & Giuseppe Rose, 2011. "Educational Mismatch and Wait Unemployment," Working Papers 19, AlmaLaurea Inter-University Consortium.
    2. Marelli Enrico & Sciulli Dario & Signorelli Marcello, 2014. "Skill mismatch of graduates in a local labour market," Экономика региона, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки «Институт экономики Уральского отделения Российской академии наук», issue 2, pages 181-194.
    3. Makoto Chikaraishi & Akimasa Fujiwara & Junyi Zhang & Kay Axhausen, 2011. "Identifying variations and co-variations in discrete choice models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(6), pages 993-1016, November.
    4. Guillaume Horny & Rute Mendes & Gerard J. Van den Berg, 2006. "Job mobility in Portugal: a Bayesian study with matched worker-firm data," Working Papers of BETA 2006-32, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    5. Montserrat Hernández-LÓPEZ & José Juan Cáceres-HERNÁNDEZ, 2016. "Forecasting The Composition Of Demand For Higher Education Degrees By Genetic Algorithms," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(3), pages 153-172.
    6. Galego, Aurora & Caleiro, António, 2009. "Understanding the Transition to Work for First Degree University Graduates in Portugal -- The Case of the University of Évora," EconStor Preprints 144149, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Corinna Ghirelli & Enkelejda Havari & Giulia Santangelo & Marta Scettri, 2019. "Does on-the-job training help graduates find a job? Evidence from an Italian region," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(3), pages 500-524, February.
    8. Simona Iammarino & Elisabetta Marinelli, 2012. "Education-Job (Mis)Matching And Interregional Migration: Italian University Graduates’ Transition To Work," Working Papers 8, Birkbeck Centre for Innovation Management Research, revised Sep 2012.
    9. Claudia Villosio, 2010. "What makes a good candidate? The preferences of HR Managers about new graduated job-seekers," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 69(3), pages 97-118, December.
    10. Samuel Manda & Renate Meyer, 2005. "Age at first marriage in Malawi: a Bayesian multilevel analysis using a discrete time‐to‐event model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(2), pages 439-455, March.
    11. Valentina Meliciani & Debora Radicchia, 2016. "Overeducation and overskill in the Italian labour market: the role of fields of study," Working Papers 33, Birkbeck Centre for Innovation Management Research, revised Jul 2016.
    12. Buddhavarapu, Prasad & Bansal, Prateek & Prozzi, Jorge A., 2021. "A new spatial count data model with time-varying parameters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 566-586.
    13. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    14. Jesse Elliott & Zemin Bai & Shu-Ching Hsieh & Shannon E Kelly & Li Chen & Becky Skidmore & Said Yousef & Carine Zheng & David J Stewart & George A Wells, 2020. "ALK inhibitors for non-small cell lung cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Inmaculada Garc�a-Mainar & V�ctor M. Montuenga-G�mez, 2017. "Subjective educational mismatch and signalling in Spain," Documentos de Trabajo dt2017-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
    16. Giuseppe Croce & Emanuela Ghignoni, 2011. "Overeducation and spatial flexibility in Italian local labour markets," Working Papers in Public Economics 145, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    17. Christina Leuker & Thorsten Pachur & Ralph Hertwig & Timothy J. Pleskac, 2019. "Do people exploit risk–reward structures to simplify information processing in risky choice?," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 76-94, August.
    18. Francois Olivier & Laval Guillaume, 2011. "Deviance Information Criteria for Model Selection in Approximate Bayesian Computation," Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, July.
    19. Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2012. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: A Markov switching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3730-3742.
    20. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:146:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-018-1884-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.