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Power in the Council of the EU: organizing theory, a new index, and Brexit

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  • Philip D. Grech

    (ETH Zurich)

Abstract

We aim to estimate the power distribution in the Council of the European Union—both a priori and a posteriori. With respect to the latter, our analysis suggests that several previously used indices are ill-suited for this application. By introducing minimal modifications, we propose a new index and compare it with previous constructions in a unified framework. Empirically, we find that that all countries gain a priori voting power in the Council as a result of Brexit. We rely on data from the Chapel Hill Expert survey to compute a posteriori power and find that it is more unequally distributed than a priori power. Specifically, a posteriori power is almost exclusively held by relatively few rather populous states (yet not the United Kingdom). As regards Brexit, France appears as the main benefactor in terms of gaining a posteriori power; Poland loses substantive power in several areas but remains one of the most powerful EU member states.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip D. Grech, 2021. "Power in the Council of the EU: organizing theory, a new index, and Brexit," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 56(2), pages 223-258, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:56:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s00355-020-01273-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00355-020-01273-z
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    Cited by:

    1. D'ora Gr'eta Petr'oczy & L'aszl'o Csat'o, 2023. "Voting power in the Council of the European Union: A comprehensive sensitivity analysis," Papers 2312.16878, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    2. Dóra Gréta Petróczy & Mark Francis Rogers & László Á. Kóczy, 2022. "Exits from the European Union and Their Effect on Power Distribution in the Council," Games, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-25, February.

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