IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v123y2020i1d10.1007_s11192-020-03392-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scientometric laws connecting publication counts to national research funding

Author

Listed:
  • R. D. Shelton

    (World Technology Evaluation Center, Inc.)

Abstract

Scientometric laws like those of Lotka, Bradford, and Zipf provide useful models for the behavior of indicators. Here additional laws are proposed that connect scientific publication counts to national funding of research and development (GERD). The laws are based on experimental evidence of what is clearly a causal relationship: funding is necessary, if not always sufficient, to conduct publishable research. The evidence comes from integer and fractional counts from Scopus and Web of Science. The explanatory variables come from a UNESCO data set that provided data from 93 countries; a subset of 43 industrialized nations from OECD, and another of 50 less industrialized nations. Models were built from cross sectional data plus panel data models combining longitudinal and cross-sectional data. GERD was shown to be an excellent explanatory variable. If a second explanatory variable is added to the model, the number of researchers adds some precision. Applications include forecasting publication counts from published funding plans, estimating the funding required for a nation to improve its publication performance, and using models for “what-if” experimentation.

Suggested Citation

  • R. D. Shelton, 2020. "Scientometric laws connecting publication counts to national research funding," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 123(1), pages 181-206, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:123:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-020-03392-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-020-03392-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-020-03392-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11192-020-03392-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert D. Shelton, 2008. "Relations between national research investment and publication output: Application to an American Paradox," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 74(2), pages 191-205, February.
    2. Aparna Basu, 2014. "The Albuquerque model and efficiency indicators in national scientific productivity with respect to manpower and funding in science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(2), pages 531-539, August.
    3. Philippe Mongeon & Adèle Paul-Hus, 2016. "The journal coverage of Web of Science and Scopus: a comparative analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 106(1), pages 213-228, January.
    4. A. Basu & P. Foland & G. Holdridge & R. D. Shelton, 2018. "China’s rising leadership in science and technology: quantitative and qualitative indicators," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(1), pages 249-269, October.
    5. R. D. Shelton & Loet Leydesdorff, 2012. "Publish or patent: Bibliometric evidence for empirical trade-offs in national funding strategies," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(3), pages 498-511, March.
    6. Helmich, Patricia & Frietsch, Rainer & Frietsch, Rainer, 2018. "Performance and Structures of the German Science System 2017," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 5-2018, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.
    7. Giovanni Baiocchi & Walter Distaso, 2003. "GRETL: Econometric software for the GNU generation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 105-110.
    8. Leydesdorff, Loet & Wagner, Caroline, 2009. "Macro-level indicators of the relations between research funding and research output," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 353-362.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giorgia Bondanini & Gabriele Giorgi & Antonio Ariza-Montes & Alejandro Vega-Muñoz & Paola Andreucci-Annunziata, 2020. "Technostress Dark Side of Technology in the Workplace: A Scientometric Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Ángel Acevedo-Duque & Alejandro Vega-Muñoz & Guido Salazar-Sepúlveda, 2020. "Analysis of Hospitality, Leisure, and Tourism Studies in Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Mehmet Pinar, 2023. "Do research performances of universities and disciplines in England converge or diverge? An assessment of the progress between research excellence frameworks in 2014 and 2021," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(10), pages 5731-5766, October.
    4. Tanel Hirv, 2022. "The interplay of the size of the research system, ways of collaboration, level, and method of funding in determining bibliometric outputs," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(3), pages 1295-1316, March.
    5. Timur Narbaev & Diana Amirbekova, 2021. "Research Productivity in Emerging Economies: Empirical Evidence from Kazakhstan," Publications, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Alejandro Vega-Muñoz & Paloma Gónzalez-Gómez-del-Miño & Juan Felipe Espinosa-Cristia, 2021. "Recognizing New Trends in Brain Drain Studies in the Framework of Global Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-27, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koski, Timo & Sandström, Erik & Sandström, Ulf, 2016. "Towards field-adjusted production: Estimating research productivity from a zero-truncated distribution," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 1143-1152.
    2. Lu, Kun & Wolfram, Dietmar, 2010. "Geographic characteristics of the growth of informetrics literature 1987–2008," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 591-601.
    3. Zaida Chinchilla-Rodríguez & Cassidy R Sugimoto & Vincent Larivière, 2019. "Follow the leader: On the relationship between leadership and scholarly impact in international collaborations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Hamdi A. Al-Jamimi & Galal M. BinMakhashen & Lutz Bornmann, 2022. "Use of bibliometrics for research evaluation in emerging markets economies: a review and discussion of bibliometric indicators," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(10), pages 5879-5930, October.
    5. Aparna Basu, 2014. "The Albuquerque model and efficiency indicators in national scientific productivity with respect to manpower and funding in science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(2), pages 531-539, August.
    6. Roman Jurowetzki & Rasmus Lema & Bengt-Åke Lundvall, 2018. "Combining Innovation Systems and Global Value Chains for Development: Towards a Research Agenda," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(3), pages 364-388, July.
    7. Maribel Vega-Arce & Gonzalo Salas & Gastón Núñez-Ulloa & Cristián Pinto-Cortez & Ivelisse Torres Fernandez & Yuh-Shan Ho, 2019. "Research performance and trends in child sexual abuse research: a Science Citation Index Expanded-based analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 121(3), pages 1505-1525, December.
    8. Serhat Burmaoglu & Ozcan Saritas, 2019. "An evolutionary analysis of the innovation policy domain: Is there a paradigm shift?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 118(3), pages 823-847, March.
    9. Marek Kwiek & Wojciech Roszka, 2022. "Academic vs. biological age in research on academic careers: a large-scale study with implications for scientifically developing systems," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(6), pages 3543-3575, June.
    10. Mike Thelwall, 2020. "Mid-career field switches reduce gender disparities in academic publishing," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 123(3), pages 1365-1383, June.
    11. Pantea Kamrani & Isabelle Dorsch & Wolfgang G. Stock, 2021. "Do researchers know what the h-index is? And how do they estimate its importance?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 5489-5508, July.
    12. Yves Gingras & Mahdi Khelfaoui, 2018. "Assessing the effect of the United States’ “citation advantage” on other countries’ scientific impact as measured in the Web of Science (WoS) database," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 114(2), pages 517-532, February.
    13. Théodore Nikiema & Eugène C. Ezin & Sylvain Kpenavoun Chogou, 2023. "Bibliometric Analysis of the State of Research on Agroecology Adoption and Methods Used for Its Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-18, November.
    14. Cai, Yuzhuo, 2023. "Towards a new model of EU-China innovation cooperation: Bridging missing links between international university collaboration and international industry collaboration," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    15. Antonio Fernández-Cano & Manuel Torralbo & Mónica Vallejo, 2012. "Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009)," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 91(1), pages 15-36, April.
    16. Yalcin, Haydar & Daim, Tugrul & Moughari, Mahdieh Mokhtari & Mermoud, Alain, 2024. "Supercomputers and quantum computing on the axis of cyber security," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Manuel Sánchez-Pérez & Nuria Rueda-López & María Belén Marín-Carrillo & Eduardo Terán-Yépez, 2021. "Theoretical dilemmas, conceptual review and perspectives disclosure of the sharing economy: a qualitative analysis," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 1849-1883, October.
    18. Stephen, Dimity & Stahlschmidt, Stephan, 2021. "Performance and structures of the German science system 2021," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 5-2021, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.
    19. Simon Zaby, 2019. "Science Mapping of the Global Knowledge Base on Microfinance: Influential Authors and Documents, 1989–2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-21, July.
    20. Ana Batlles-delaFuente & Luis Jesús Belmonte-Ureña & José Antonio Plaza-Úbeda & Emilio Abad-Segura, 2021. "Sustainable Business Model in the Product-Service System: Analysis of Global Research and Associated EU Legislation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-33, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:123:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-020-03392-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.