IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v117y2018i1d10.1007_s11192-018-2877-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China’s rising leadership in science and technology: quantitative and qualitative indicators

Author

Listed:
  • A. Basu

    (South Asian University)

  • P. Foland

    (ITRI)

  • G. Holdridge

    (WTEC)

  • R. D. Shelton

    (WTEC)

Abstract

China has a long and proud history of world leadership in science and technology, but in the past two centuries it has experienced a period of instability that has challenged that leadership. However, since its political consolidation in the middle part of the 20th Century and its subsequent economic reforms, China’s rise in science has been meteoric. This rise was first detected by the scientometric community through its indicators, but it has now become obvious. Indeed in 2017 the question, “Will China come to lead world science?” was becoming to some, “Does China already lead world science?” This paper tries to make the case that the answer is “yes” (or at least “soon”)—but the answer depends on which metrics one considers. China already leads many countries in some measures of GDP, scientific paper production, researchers, plus high technology manufacturing and exports. China also recently passed the European Union in R&D investment. Even in some of those indicators where China has not yet taken the lead, reasonable forecasts predict that it soon will. However, there are some indicators where China is still far behind. For example while rising, it still lags the U.S. and EU in citations in Western publications, and will take years to catch up. Here, these quantitative measures are supplemented by qualitative ones from WTEC assessments and by survey results of scientists and the public, which present a more nuanced conclusion. While Chinese leadership may be difficult for Westerners to accept, it can be viewed as China merely regaining its historical position of leadership in science and technology.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Basu & P. Foland & G. Holdridge & R. D. Shelton, 2018. "China’s rising leadership in science and technology: quantitative and qualitative indicators," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(1), pages 249-269, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:117:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-018-2877-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-018-2877-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-018-2877-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11192-018-2877-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert D. Shelton, 2008. "Relations between national research investment and publication output: Application to an American Paradox," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 74(2), pages 191-205, February.
    2. Fairclough, Ruth & Thelwall, Mike, 2015. "National research impact indicators from Mendeley readers," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 845-859.
    3. Aparna Basu, 2006. "Using ISI's 'Highly Cited Researchers' to obtain a country level indicator of citation excellence," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 68(3), pages 361-375, September.
    4. Mirowski, Philip, 2011. "Science-Mart: Privatizing American Science," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674046467, Spring.
    5. Nelson, Richard R., 1990. "U.S. technological leadership: Where did it come from and where did it go?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 117-132, April.
    6. Henk F. Moed, 2002. "Measuring China"s research performance using the Science Citation Index," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 53(3), pages 281-296, March.
    7. Zhou, Ping & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2006. "The emergence of China as a leading nation in science," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-104, February.
    8. Frietsch, Rainer & Helmich, Patricia & Neuhäusler, Peter, 2017. "Performance and Structures of the German Science System 2016," Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem 5-2017, Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI) - Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation, Berlin.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qingnan Xie & Richard B. Freeman, 2019. "Bigger Than You Thought: China's Contribution to Scientific Publications and Its Impact on the Global Economy," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(1), pages 1-27, January.
    2. Chaocheng He & Jiang Wu & Qingpeng Zhang, 2021. "Characterizing research leadership on geographically weighted collaboration network," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 4005-4037, May.
    3. R. D. Shelton, 2020. "Scientometric laws connecting publication counts to national research funding," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 123(1), pages 181-206, April.
    4. Xiaojie Fan & Hong Liu & Yang Wang & Yawen Wan & Duanhong Zhang, 2022. "Models of Internationalization of Higher Education in Developing Countries—A Perspective of International Research Collaboration in BRICS Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-24, October.
    5. Junwen Zhu & Weishu Liu, 2020. "Comparing like with like: China ranks first in SCI-indexed research articles since 2018," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(2), pages 1691-1700, August.
    6. Xiaoyu Cai & Tao Han, 2020. "Analysis of the division of labor in China’s high-quality life sciences research," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(2), pages 1077-1094, November.
    7. Cai, Yuzhuo, 2023. "Towards a new model of EU-China innovation cooperation: Bridging missing links between international university collaboration and international industry collaboration," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Martin Grančay & Tomáš Dudáš & Ladislav Mura, 2022. "Revealed comparative advantages in academic publishing of “old” and “new” European Union Member States 1998–2018," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(3), pages 1247-1271, March.
    9. Diana Amirbekova & Timur Narbaev & Meruyert Kussaiyn, 2022. "The Research Environment in a Developing Economy: Reforms, Patterns, and Challenges in Kazakhstan," Publications, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juana Paul Moiwo & Fulu Tao, 2013. "The changing dynamics in citation index publication position China in a race with the USA for global leadership," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 95(3), pages 1031-1050, June.
    2. Bar-Ilan, Judit, 2008. "Informetrics at the beginning of the 21st century—A review," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-52.
    3. Yi Zhang & Mingting Kou & Kaihua Chen & Jiancheng Guan & Yuchen Li, 2016. "Modelling the Basic Research Competitiveness Index (BR-CI) with an application to the biomass energy field," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(3), pages 1221-1241, September.
    4. Kostoff, Ronald N., 2008. "Comparison of China/USA science and technology performance," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 354-363.
    5. Maria Karaulova & Abdullah Gök & Oliver Shackleton & Philip Shapira, 2016. "Science system path-dependencies and their influences: nanotechnology research in Russia," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 107(2), pages 645-670, May.
    6. Caroline S. Wagner & Xiaojing Cai & Satyam Mukherjee, 2020. "China’s scholarship shows atypical referencing patterns," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(3), pages 2457-2468, September.
    7. S. Hennemann & T. Wang & I. Liefner, 2011. "Measuring regional science networks in China: a comparison of international and domestic bibliographic data sources," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 88(2), pages 535-554, August.
    8. Wang, Gangbo & Guan, Jiancheng, 2010. "The role of patenting activity for scientific research: A study of academic inventors from China's nanotechnology," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 338-350.
    9. Lu, Kun & Wolfram, Dietmar, 2010. "Geographic characteristics of the growth of informetrics literature 1987–2008," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 591-601.
    10. Min-Wei Lin & Jingjing Zhang, 2007. "Language trends in nanoscience and technology: The case of Chinese-language publications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 70(3), pages 555-564, March.
    11. Leydesdorff, Loet & Wagner, Caroline S. & Bornmann, Lutz, 2014. "The European Union, China, and the United States in the top-1% and top-10% layers of most-frequently cited publications: Competition and collaborations," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 606-617.
    12. Jiancheng Guan & Gangbo Wang, 2010. "A comparative study of research performance in nanotechnology for China’s inventor–authors and their non-inventing peers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 84(2), pages 331-343, August.
    13. Feng Li & Yong Yi & Xiaolong Guo & Wei Qi, 2012. "Performance evaluation of research universities in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan: based on a two-dimensional approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 90(2), pages 531-542, February.
    14. Chi Mai Nguyen & Jae-Yong Choung, 2020. "Scientific knowledge production in China: a comparative analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(2), pages 1279-1303, August.
    15. Leydesdorff, Loet & Wagner, Caroline, 2009. "Macro-level indicators of the relations between research funding and research output," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 353-362.
    16. Loet Leydesdorff, 2008. "The delineation of nanoscience and nanotechnology in terms of journals and patents: A most recent update," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 76(1), pages 159-167, July.
    17. Ping Zhou & Bart Thijs & Wolfgang Glänzel, 2009. "Is China also becoming a giant in social sciences?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 79(3), pages 593-621, June.
    18. Aparna Basu, 2010. "Does a country’s scientific ‘productivity’ depend critically on the number of country journals indexed?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 82(3), pages 507-516, March.
    19. Domingo Docampo & Lawrence Cram, 2019. "Highly cited researchers: a moving target," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 118(3), pages 1011-1025, March.
    20. Can Huang & Naubahar Sharif, 2016. "Global technology leadership: The case of China," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 62-73.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:117:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-018-2877-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.