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Estimation of Mortality Rate of COVID-19 in India using SEIRD Model

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  • Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

    (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi)

  • Deepak Khichar

    (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi)

  • Priyanka Kalita

    (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi)

  • Vidyottama Jain

    (Central University of Rajasthan)

Abstract

In India, the number of infections is rapidly increased with a mounting death toll during the second wave of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). To measure the severity of the said disease, the mortality rate plays an important role. In this research work, the mortality rate of COVID-19 is estimated by using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) epidemiological model. As the disease contains a significant amount of uncertainty, a fundamental SEIRD model with minimal assumptions is employed. Further, a basic method is proposed to obtain time-dependent estimations of the parameters of the SEIRD model by using historical data. From our proposed model and with the predictive analysis, it is expected that the infection may go rise in the month of May-2021 and the mortality rate could go as high as 1.8%. Such high rates of mortality may be used as a measure to understand the severity of the situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Dharmaraja Selvamuthu & Deepak Khichar & Priyanka Kalita & Vidyottama Jain, 2023. "Estimation of Mortality Rate of COVID-19 in India using SEIRD Model," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 60(1), pages 539-553, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:opsear:v:60:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s12597-021-00557-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s12597-021-00557-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Singhal, Amit & Singh, Pushpendra & Lall, Brejesh & Joshi, Shiv Dutt, 2020. "Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 pandemic using Gaussian mixture model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Korolev, Ivan, 2021. "Identification and estimation of the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 63-85.
    3. Ali Khaleel Dhaiban & Baydaa Khalaf Jabbar, 2021. "An optimal control model of COVID-19 pandemic: a comparative study of five countries," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 58(4), pages 790-809, December.
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