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An optimal control model of COVID-19 pandemic: a comparative study of five countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Khaleel Dhaiban

    (Mustansiriyah University)

  • Baydaa Khalaf Jabbar

    (Baghdad University)

Abstract

This paper formulates an optimal control model of COVID-19 pandemic spreading. We discuss the health sector performance of Argentina, Hungary, Egypt, Malaysia, and Iraq. A mathematical model describes an actual case number of COVID-19. We investigate three strategies depend on recovery rate, death rate, and together (optimal). These strategies represent the percent of the health sector development. The explicit solution of the model using the Pontryagin maximum principle is derived. The results showed the ranking of countries based on the new percent of the recovery and death cases. A new percent as a result to the control variable value (health sector development). Also, the development percent of the health sector of each country, was determined. For example, 0.005 led to a significant reduce the death rates in Malaysia. Meanwhile, a half of death rates could reduce by this percent in Egypt.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Khaleel Dhaiban & Baydaa Khalaf Jabbar, 2021. "An optimal control model of COVID-19 pandemic: a comparative study of five countries," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 58(4), pages 790-809, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:opsear:v:58:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s12597-020-00491-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s12597-020-00491-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amira Rachah & Delfim F. M. Torres, 2015. "Mathematical Modelling, Simulation, and Optimal Control of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-9, May.
    2. Pang, Liuyong & Ruan, Shigui & Liu, Sanhong & Zhao, Zhong & Zhang, Xinan, 2015. "Transmission dynamics and optimal control of measles epidemics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 256(C), pages 131-147.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dharmaraja Selvamuthu & Deepak Khichar & Priyanka Kalita & Vidyottama Jain, 2023. "Estimation of Mortality Rate of COVID-19 in India using SEIRD Model," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 60(1), pages 539-553, March.
    2. Suchi Dubey & Ganesan Subramanian & Vinod Shukla & Ashish Dwivedi & Kartik Puri & Sanchita Sandip Kamath, 2022. "Blockchain technology: a solution to address the challenges faced by the international travellers," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 59(4), pages 1471-1488, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; Optimal control; Argentina; Hungary; Egypt; Malaysia; Iraq;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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