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A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols

Author

Listed:
  • N. Shamsi Gamchi

    (Alzahra University)

  • M. Esmaeili

    (Alzahra University)

Abstract

Infectious diseases drive countries to provide vaccines to individuals. Due to the limited supply of vaccines, individuals prioritize receiving vaccinations worldwide. Although, priority groups are formed based on age groupings due to the restricted decision-making time. Governments usually ordain different health protocols such as lockdown policy, mandatory use of face masks, and vaccination during the pandemics. Therefore, this study considers the case of COVID-19 with a SEQIR (susceptible–exposed–quarantined–infected–recovered) epidemic model and presents a novel prioritization technique to minimize the social and economic impacts of the lockdown policy. We use retail units as one of the affected parts to demonstrate how a vaccination plan may be more effective if individuals such as retailers were prioritized and age groups. In addition, we estimate the total required vaccine doses to control the epidemic disease and compute the number of vaccine doses supplied by various suppliers. The vaccine doses are determined using optimal control theory in the solution technique. In addition, we consider the effect of the mask using policy in the number of vaccine doses allocated to each priority group. The model’s performance is evaluated using an illustrative scenario based on a real case.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Shamsi Gamchi & M. Esmaeili, 2023. "A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(4), pages 633-646, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:24:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s10198-022-01491-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10198-022-01491-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infectious disease; SEQIR epidemic model; Vaccine allocation; Parallel prioritization; Mandatory use of face mask; Optimal control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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