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Spatial Interaction Analysis of Infectious Disease Import and Export between Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Mingdong Lyu

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Mobility, Behavior, and Advanced Powertrains Department, Denver, CO 80401, USA)

  • Kuofu Liu

    (Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA)

  • Randolph W. Hall

    (Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA)

Abstract

Human travel plays a crucial role in the spread of infectious disease between regions. Travel of infected individuals from one region to another can transport a virus to places that were previously unaffected or may accelerate the spread of disease in places where the disease is not yet well established. We develop and apply models and metrics to analyze the role of inter-regional travel relative to the spread of disease, drawing from data on COVID-19 in the United States. To better understand how transportation affects disease transmission, we established a multi-regional time-varying compartmental disease model with spatial interaction. The compartmental model was integrated with statistical estimates of travel between regions. From the integrated model, we derived a transmission import index to assess the risk of COVID-19 transmission between states. Based on the index, we determined states with high risk for disease spreading to other states at the scale of months, and we analyzed how the index changed over time during 2020. Our model provides a tool for policymakers to evaluate the influence of travel between regions on disease transmission in support of strategies for epidemic control.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingdong Lyu & Kuofu Liu & Randolph W. Hall, 2024. "Spatial Interaction Analysis of Infectious Disease Import and Export between Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(5), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:5:p:643-:d:1397208
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Xiaofei Ye & Yi Zhu & Tao Wang & Xingchen Yan & Jun Chen & Pengjun Zheng, 2023. "Assessing the Impact of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2020 Coronavirus Epidemic: An Advanced Epidemic Model Based on Human Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-12, August.
    3. Chaogui Kang & Yu Liu & Diansheng Guo & Kun Qin, 2015. "A Generalized Radiation Model for Human Mobility: Spatial Scale, Searching Direction and Trip Constraint," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-11, November.
    4. Faizeh Hatami & Shi Chen & Rajib Paul & Jean-Claude Thill, 2022. "Simulating and Forecasting the COVID-19 Spread in a U.S. Metropolitan Region with a Spatial SEIR Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Filippo Simini & Marta C. González & Amos Maritan & Albert-László Barabási, 2012. "A universal model for mobility and migration patterns," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7392), pages 96-100, April.
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