IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v99y2019i3d10.1007_s11069-019-03588-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change impacts on socioeconomic damages from weather-related events in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao-Chen Yuan

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Xun Sun

    (East China Normal University
    Columbia University)

Abstract

China is vulnerable to climate change impacts, and this study investigates the potential socioeconomic damages to China from weather-related events under future climate conditions. A two-part model incorporating a hierarchical Bayesian approach is employed to explore the effects of climate on human damage (the share of affected people in a total population) and economic damage (the share of economic losses in gross domestic product). Based on these relationships, the relative changes in socioeconomic damages under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are presented at the regional and national levels. Our results show that China would experience an increase in socioeconomic damages from rainfall-related events under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, and the higher increments mainly appear in the central and southwestern areas. Future climate conditions may greatly increase national damages from drought events under RCP8.5. Damages in some northern and southeastern provinces could double by 2081–2090. The national damage to humans from cold-related events is almost unchanged in most climate scenarios; however, the associated economic damage has downtrends.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun, 2019. "Climate change impacts on socioeconomic damages from weather-related events in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1197-1213, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:99:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03588-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03588-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03588-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03588-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendelsohn, Robert & Emanuel, Kerry & Chonabayashi, Shun, 2011. "The impact of climate change on global tropical storm damages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5562, The World Bank.
    2. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
    3. Samuel Fankhauser & Thomas K.J. McDermott, 2013. "Understanding the adaptation deficit: why are poor countries more vulnerable to climate events than rich countries?," GRI Working Papers 134, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    4. Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
    5. Millner, Antony & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2016. "Model confirmation in climate economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67122, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Robert Mendelsohn & Kerry Emanuel & Shun Chonabayashi & Laura Bakkensen, 2012. "The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 205-209, March.
    7. Duan, Naihua, et al, 1983. "A Comparison of Alternative Models for the Demand for Medical Care," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 115-126, April.
    8. Burke, M. & Craxton, M. & Kolstad, C.D. & Onda, C. & Allcott, H. & Baker, E. & Barrage, L. & Carson, R. & Gillingham, K. & Graff-Zivin, J. & Greenstone, M. & Hallegatte, S. & Hanemann, W.M. & Heal, G., 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics," ISU General Staff Papers 3565, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    10. Samuel Fankhauser & Nicholas Stern, 2016. "Climate change, development, poverty and economics," GRI Working Papers 253, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    11. Laurens M. Bouwer, 2013. "Projections of Future Extreme Weather Losses Under Changes in Climate and Exposure," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 915-930, May.
    12. Oleg Smirnov & Minghua Zhang & Tingyin Xiao & John Orbell & Amy Lobben & Josef Gordon, 2016. "The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 41-53, September.
    13. Yang Zhou & Ning Li & Wenxiang Wu & Haolong Liu & Li Wang & Guangxu Liu & Jidong Wu, 2014. "Socioeconomic development and the impact of natural disasters: some empirical evidences from China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 541-554, November.
    14. Maximilian Auffhammer & Solomon M. Hsiang & Wolfram Schlenker & Adam Sobel, 2013. "Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 181-198, July.
    15. Solomon Hsiang, 2016. "Climate Econometrics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 43-75, October.
    16. Simon Lloyd & R. Kovats & Zaid Chalabi & Sally Brown & Robert Nicholls, 2016. "Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 441-455, February.
    17. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    18. Burke, M & Craxton, M & Kolstad, CD & Onda, C & Allcott, H & Baker, E & Barrage, L & Carson, R & Gillingham, K & Graf-Zivin, J & Greenstone, M & Hallegatte, S & Hanemann, WM & Heal, G & Hsiang, S & Jo, 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics," University of California at Santa Barbara, Recent Works in Economics qt4tc5d9pb, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    19. Solomon M. Hsiang, 2016. "Climate Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 22181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alpo Kapuka & Tomáš Hlásny, 2020. "Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Namibia: A District-Based Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Nathan P. Kettle & John E. Walsh & Lindsey Heaney & Richard L. Thoman & Kyle Redilla & Lynneva Carroll, 2020. "Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 669-687, November.
    3. Jing Ma & Qin Ju & Yiheng Du & Yanli Liu & Guoqing Wang & Huanan Zeng & Zhenchun Hao, 2022. "Assessing precipitation variations in the Yangtze River Basin during 1979–2019 by vertically integrated moisture flux divergence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 971-987, October.
    4. Mariano Gallo & Mario Marinelli, 2020. "Sustainable Mobility: A Review of Possible Actions and Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-39, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sven Kunze, 2021. "Unraveling the Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Economic Sectors Worldwide: Direct and Indirect Impacts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 545-569, April.
    2. Kunze, Sven, 2020. "Unraveling the effects of tropical cyclones on economic sectors worldwide," Working Papers 0685, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Bhaskar Jyoti Neog, 2022. "Temperature shocks and rural labour markets: evidence from India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    5. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Aragón, Fernando M. & Restuccia, Diego & Rud, Juan Pablo, 2022. "Are small farms really more productive than large farms?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    7. Isabelle Chort & Maëlys de la Rupelle, 2022. "Managing the impact of climate on migration: evidence from Mexico," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1777-1819, October.
    8. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Nguyen, Cuong Viet, 2021. "Do weather extremes induce people to move? Evidence from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 118-141.
    10. Garg, Teevrat & Gibson, Matthew & Sun, Fanglin, 2020. "Extreme temperatures and time use in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 309-324.
    11. Steven J. Dundas & Roger H. von Haefen, 2021. "The importance of data structure and nonlinearities in estimating climate impacts on outdoor recreation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2053-2075, July.
    12. Albuquerque Sant'Anna, André, 2018. "Not So Natural: Unequal Effects of Public Policies on the Occurrence of Disasters," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 273-281.
    13. Díaz, Juan-José & Saldarriaga, Victor, 2023. "A drop of love? Rainfall shocks and spousal abuse: Evidence from rural Peru," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Laura A. Bakkensen & Robert O. Mendelsohn, 2016. "Risk and Adaptation: Evidence from Global Hurricane Damages and Fatalities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 555-587.
    15. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Desbureaux, Sébastien & Rodella, Aude-Sophie, 2019. "Drought in the city: The economic impact of water scarcity in Latin American metropolitan areas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 13-27.
    17. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2021. "Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115526, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Pierre Mérel & Matthew Gammans, 2021. "Climate Econometrics: Can the Panel Approach Account for Long‐Run Adaptation?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1207-1238, August.
    19. Heleene Tambet & Yaniv Stopnitzky, 2021. "Climate Adaptation and Conservation Agriculture among Peruvian Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 900-922, May.
    20. Charles D. Kolstad & Frances C. Moore, 2020. "Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:99:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03588-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.