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Do weather extremes induce people to move? Evidence from Vietnam

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  • Nguyen, Cuong Viet

Abstract

This study examines the effect of extreme weather events on inter-province migration in Vietnam using a migration gravity model. It finds that high rainfall extremes encourage the out-migration of highly educated people but attracts the in-migration of the poorly educated. A possible reason is that high rainfall increases household income from agricultural production but reduces wage income. Thus, high rainfall extremes increase the migration of the highly educated, who mainly have salaried jobs, while attracting the poorly educated, who are mainly self-employed in agricultural work. Low temperature extremes in source provinces reduce out-migration, while low temperature extremes in destination provinces increase in-migration, possibly because very hot weather reduces wages and affect people’s health, and as a result influences migration.

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  • Nguyen, Cuong Viet, 2021. "Do weather extremes induce people to move? Evidence from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 118-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:69:y:2021:i:c:p:118-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2020.11.009
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    3. Weerasekara, Sajeevani & Wilson, Clevo & Lee, Boon & Hoang, Viet-Ngu & Managi, Shunsuke & Rajapaksa, Darshana, 2021. "The impacts of climate induced disasters on the economy: Winners and losers in Sri Lanka," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    4. Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Truong, N.T. Khuong & Le, Kien, 2023. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 326-336.
    5. Cuong Viet Nguyen & Manh‐Hung Nguyen & Toan Truong Nguyen, 2023. "The impact of cold waves and heat waves on mortality: Evidence from a lower middle‐income country," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1220-1243, June.
    6. Mukherjee, Manisha & Fransen, Sonja, 2024. "Exploring migration decision-making and agricultural adaptation in the context of climate change: A systematic review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    7. Wu, Zhiyang & Zhou, Tao & Zhang, Ning & Choi, Yongrok & Kong, Fanbin, 2023. "A hidden risk in climate change: The effect of daily rainfall shocks on industrial activities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 161-180.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weather extremes; Climate change; Migration; Households; Population census; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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