IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v97y2019i2d10.1007_s11069-019-03674-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparative study of three probabilistic methods for seismic hazard analysis: case studies of Sochi and Kamchatka

Author

Listed:
  • V. A. Pavlenko

    (University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre
    The Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • A. Kijko

    (University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre)

Abstract

This study examines the effect of the procedures used in three different probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods for estimating the rates of exceedance of ground motion. To evaluate the effect of these procedures, the Cornell–McGuire and Parametric-Historic methods, and the method based on Monte Carlo simulations are employed, and the seismic source model, based on spatially smoothed seismicity, is used in the calculations. Two regions in Russia were selected for comparison, and seismic hazard maps were prepared for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The results indicate that the choice of a particular method for conducting PSHA has relatively little effect on the hazard estimates. The Cornell–McGuire method yielded the highest estimates, with the two other methods producing slightly lower estimates. The variation among the results based on the three methods appeared to be virtually independent of the return period. The variation in the results for the Sochi region was within 6%, and that for the Kamchatka region was within 10%. Accordingly, the considered PSHA methods would provide closely related results for areas of moderate seismic activity; however, the difference among the results would apparently increase with an increase in seismic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • V. A. Pavlenko & A. Kijko, 2019. "Comparative study of three probabilistic methods for seismic hazard analysis: case studies of Sochi and Kamchatka," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 775-791, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:97:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03674-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03674-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03674-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03674-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ranjit Das & H. Wason & M. Sharma, 2011. "Global regression relations for conversion of surface wave and body wave magnitudes to moment magnitude," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 801-810, November.
    2. Max Wyss & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2012. "Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(3), pages 927-935, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. V. Pavlenko, 2015. "Effect of alternative distributions of ground motion variability on results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1917-1930, September.
    2. Masoud Mojarab & Nazi Norouzi & Mahdokht Bayati & Zeinab Asadi & Mohamad Eslami & Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany & Abdul-Latif Helaly & Sara Khoshnevis, 2023. "Assessment of seismic hazard including equivalent-linear soil response analysis for Dhaka Metropolitan Region, Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 3145-3180, July.
    3. Hemchandra Chaulagain & Hugo Rodrigues & Vitor Silva & Enrico Spacone & Humberto Varum, 2015. "Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 583-602, August.
    4. Max Wyss & Philippe Rosset, 2013. "Mapping seismic risk: the current crisis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(1), pages 49-52, August.
    5. Anastasiya Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2023. "Seismic risk assessment for the infrastructure in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 1995-2010, March.
    6. Vladimir G. Kossobokov & Anastasia K. Nekrasova, 2018. "Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on unified scaling law for earthquakes: Altai–Sayan Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1435-1449, September.
    7. A. Nekrasova & V. Kossobokov & A. Peresan & A. Magrin, 2014. "The comparison of the NDSHA, PSHA seismic hazard maps and real seismicity for the Italian territory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 629-641, January.
    8. Amit Shiuly & J. Narayan, 2012. "Deterministic seismic microzonation of Kolkata city," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 223-240, January.
    9. Ranjit Das & Claudio Menesis & Diego Urrutia, 2023. "Regression relationships for conversion of body wave and surface wave magnitudes toward Das magnitude scale, Mwg," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 365-380, May.
    10. Imtiyaz A. Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2018. "Seismic hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: thirteen principal urban agglomerations of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1509-1522, July.
    11. Vladimir Kossobokov, 2013. "Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(2), pages 1155-1177, November.
    12. G. Babayev & L. Telesca, 2014. "Strong motion scenario of 25th November 2000 earthquake for Absheron peninsula (Azerbaijan)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1647-1661, September.
    13. Imtiyaz Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2014. "Estimation of seismic hazard and risks for the Himalayas and surrounding regions based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 549-562, March.
    14. Rahul Sinha & Rajib Sarkar, 2020. "Seismic Hazard Assessment of Dhanbad City, India, by deterministic approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1857-1880, September.
    15. Sankar Kumar Nath & Suman Mandal & Manik Adhikari & Soumya Kanti Maiti, 2017. "A unified earthquake catalogue for South Asia covering the period 1900–2014," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1787-1810, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:97:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03674-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.