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Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates

Author

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  • Max Wyss
  • Anastasia Nekrasova
  • Vladimir Kossobokov

Abstract

Seismic hazard maps are constructed by extrapolating from the frequency of small earthquakes, the annual probability of large, infrequent, earthquakes. Combining the potential contribution from all seismically active volumes, one calculates the peak ground acceleration with a probability to be exceeded by 10 % in 50 years at any given point. The consequential risk, the losses to be expected, derives from the damage the calculated shaking causes to buildings, and the impact on occupants due to collapsing structures. We show that the numbers of fatalities in recent disastrous earthquakes were underestimated by the world seismic hazard maps by approximately two to three orders of magnitude. Thus, seismic hazard maps based on the standard method cannot be used to estimate the risk to which the population is exposed due to large earthquakes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Max Wyss & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2012. "Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(3), pages 927-935, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:62:y:2012:i:3:p:927-935
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0125-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Geller, 2011. "Shake-up time for Japanese seismology," Nature, Nature, vol. 472(7344), pages 407-409, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir G. Kossobokov & Anastasia K. Nekrasova, 2018. "Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on unified scaling law for earthquakes: Altai–Sayan Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1435-1449, September.
    2. A. Nekrasova & V. Kossobokov & A. Peresan & A. Magrin, 2014. "The comparison of the NDSHA, PSHA seismic hazard maps and real seismicity for the Italian territory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 629-641, January.
    3. Max Wyss & Philippe Rosset, 2013. "Mapping seismic risk: the current crisis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(1), pages 49-52, August.
    4. V. A. Pavlenko & A. Kijko, 2019. "Comparative study of three probabilistic methods for seismic hazard analysis: case studies of Sochi and Kamchatka," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 775-791, June.
    5. V. Pavlenko, 2015. "Effect of alternative distributions of ground motion variability on results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1917-1930, September.
    6. Imtiyaz Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2014. "Estimation of seismic hazard and risks for the Himalayas and surrounding regions based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 549-562, March.
    7. Anastasiya Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2023. "Seismic risk assessment for the infrastructure in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 1995-2010, March.
    8. Hemchandra Chaulagain & Hugo Rodrigues & Vitor Silva & Enrico Spacone & Humberto Varum, 2015. "Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 583-602, August.
    9. G. Babayev & L. Telesca, 2014. "Strong motion scenario of 25th November 2000 earthquake for Absheron peninsula (Azerbaijan)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1647-1661, September.
    10. Imtiyaz A. Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2018. "Seismic hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: thirteen principal urban agglomerations of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1509-1522, July.
    11. Vladimir Kossobokov, 2013. "Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(2), pages 1155-1177, November.

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    Keywords

    Seismic hazard; Seismic risk;

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