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Seismic risk assessment for the infrastructure in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

Author

Listed:
  • Anastasiya Nekrasova

    (Russian Academy of Sciences (IEPT RAS)
    Russian Academy of Sciences (IPE RAS))

  • Vladimir Kossobokov

    (Russian Academy of Sciences (IEPT RAS)
    International Seismic Safety Organisation (ISSO))

Abstract

The purpose of the analysis is to assess the risk of loss in performance of infrastructure facilities in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur and Trans-Siberian Mainlines due to seismic events of maximum macroseismic intensity expected in a period of 50 years with a probability of 10%, 5% and 1%. In particular, we use earthquake data compiled at the Baikal Division of the Russian Geophysical Survey, which provides sufficiently complete earthquake determinations of M = 2.5 or larger events for the period 1994–2019 for a reliable mapping the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes coefficients at the seismically active cells of a regular grid. Based on these estimates, we present maps of the maximum expected magnitude in about 500, 1000 and 5000 years. Having described an anisotropic seismic effect model of seismic sites in the region, we conclude by characterizing the seismic hazard in traditional terms of macroseismic intensity and by estimating the associated seismic risk to selected infrastructures, i.e. Baikal–Amur Mainline and Trans-Siberian Railway.

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasiya Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2023. "Seismic risk assessment for the infrastructure in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 1995-2010, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05750-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05750-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Max Wyss & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2012. "Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(3), pages 927-935, July.
    2. Imtiyaz Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2014. "Estimation of seismic hazard and risks for the Himalayas and surrounding regions based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 549-562, March.
    3. Xiao‐Bing Hu & Hang Li & XiaoMei Guo & Pieter H. A. J. M. van Gelder & Peijun Shi, 2019. "Spatial Vulnerability of Network Systems under Spatially Local Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 162-179, January.
    4. E. E. Koks & J. Rozenberg & C. Zorn & M. Tariverdi & M. Vousdoukas & S. A. Fraser & J. W. Hall & S. Hallegatte, 2019. "A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Imtiyaz A. Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2018. "Seismic hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: thirteen principal urban agglomerations of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1509-1522, July.
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